college football picks – Page 181

Oklahoma vs Kansas State Prediction, Game Preview

Oklahoma vs Kansas State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Oklahoma vs Kansas State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Oklahoma vs Kansas State How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
How To Watch: FOX
Record: Oklahoma (4-0), Kansas State (3-1)
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Oklahoma vs Kansas State Game Preview

Why Oklahoma Will Win

No, the Oklahoma offense isn’t working like it’s supposed to, and this hasn’t been the dominant force everyone was expected, but it’s 4-0, it’s been pushed, and this might just be a case of getting through the early problems before it all starts to rock.

Last year at this time OU was 1-2 – with a loss to Kansas State – because of a massive turnover problem. The mistakes have been limited a bit with just three turnovers in the first four games.

Spencer Rattler has been fine. There were a few turnovers against Tulane, but he’s hitting 74% of his passes for an offense that’s been more about control than fury – and that’s okay.

The D is doing what it’s supposed to with a whole lot of sacks, takeaways, and big plays on third downs. However …

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Why Kansas State Will Win

The Oklahoma running game is just okay.

Rattler isn’t going to take off, and that’s sort of a problem for an attack that went ballistic when Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts were able to explode out of the backfield.

The running back tandem of Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray are okay, but the Kansas State defensive front has been solid so far against the run – it’s not getting gouged and it should get to Rattler enough to matter. However …

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What’s Going To Happen

Can Kansas State get steady play out of the quarterback?

Skylar Thompson might come back from a knee injury, but that’s a huge question mark. Will Howard struggled against Oklahoma State and got banged up, but Jaren Lewis stepped in and threw well enough to keep the game alive.

This will be on the Kansas State defense.

The Oklahoma offense would have to take things up a few levels to put this away with an explosive scoring day, and that’s not happening against a K-State D that keeps the game alive.

The Wildcats have won two straight in the series, and make it three with the Sooners failing to put the game away when they have a chance in the first half.

– Week 4 CFN NFL Expert Picks

Oklahoma vs Kansas State Prediction, Line

Kansas State 27, Oklahoma 24
Line: Oklahoma -10.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 4

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Texas vs TCU Prediction, Game Preview

Texas vs TCU prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Texas vs TCU prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Texas vs TCU How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
How To Watch: ABC
Record: Texas (3-1), TCU (2-1)
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Texas vs TCU Game Preview

Why Texas Will Win

The offense has figured something out.

The 40-21 loss to Arkansas in Week 2 was a dud, but the Longhorns moved away from Hudson Card at quarterback to Casey Thompson, and all of a sudden it’s all blowing up.

Cranking up 620 yards in a 58-0 Rice was cool – but that was against Rice. Coming up with over 300 yards both rushing and passing in a 70-35 win over Texas Tech – and it could’ve been a whole lot worse – was the eye-opener.

The offense is ultra-efficient, there aren’t a ton of mistakes – the penalties and turnovers are kept to a minimum – and TCU doesn’t have the doesn’t have the pass rush to bust all of this up.

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Why TCU Will Win

Max Duggan.

The TCU junior quarterback threw for 231 yards and ran for two scores in last year’s 33-31 win over Texas. As a freshman, he threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns, and he once again ran for over 70 yards with a score.

He might not be the most accurate passer, but he’s been decent so far with over 200 yards in each of the first three games with seven touchdowns and two picks. Now it’s his job to continue being the Longhorn whisperer.

The Texas offense might be sensational, but the defense is struggling a bit. Arkansas was able to run wild, Louisiana and Texas Tech threw without too much of a problem, and TCU should be able to move the chains with a slew of third down conversions.

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What’s Going To Happen

Forget Oklahoma, TCU has been the big problem for Texas with six wins in the last seven years.

This Horned Frog D doesn’t have its normal stuff. SMU ran wild in a win last week, Cal threw too well in the previous game, and Texas is about to do both.

It’s Texas – its ability to biff games like this might transcend coaching eras – but Steve Sarkisian appears to have everything rolling at the right time.

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Texas vs TCU Prediction, Line

Texas 37, TCU 30
Line: Texas -5, o/u: 65
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 3

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Notre Dame vs Cincinnati Prediction, Game Preview

Notre Dame vs Cincinnati prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Notre Dame vs Cincinnati prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Notre Dame vs Cincinnati How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 2:30 ET
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
How To Watch: NBC
Record: Notre Dame (4-0), Cincinnati (3-0)
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Notre Dame vs Cincinnati Game Preview

Why Cincinnati Will Win

Desmond Ridder (probably) won’t throw four interceptions.

Wisconsin has a better defense than Cincinnati does, but it didn’t have the NFL-caliber quarterback with the mobility and downfield passing arm that Ridder brings to his date with the Irish.

Notre Dame still has the same problems it had before and during the blowout win over the Badgers, and the Bearcats can exploit them.

Did the Irish O line get better over the last week? Probably not. It’s talented, but it needs more time and seasoning – it’s not great in pass protection.

Is the running game going to be stronger and more consistent? Probably not.

Can the Irish win this by throwing the ball? Cincinnati has come up with six interceptions in the last two games, and Notre Dame QB Jack Coan is still hobbling – but he’s expected to play.

The Bearcats have the offensive line to hold up against the great Notre Dame defensive front, the D has been a rock in the red zone, and …

– Week 5 CFN College Football Expert Picks

Why Notre Dame Will Win

Back it all up for a moment.

Yeah, the Irish offensive front has been an issue, but Cincinnati’s D doesn’t get into the backfield. In the first three games it only has four sacks and 19 tackles for loss – it’s not going to jump on Jack Coan’s head like the Badger D did.

Yeah, Ridder probably isn’t going to screw up like Mertz did – more like he’ll be put in better situations than the Badger quarterback found himself in – but he’s not above turning the ball over. He threw two picks in the opener against Miami University.

Yeah, Cincinnati is 3-0 and ranked in the top ten, but … Miami University, Murray State, and Indiana? Oooooooooooh – and the Bearcats were struggling against a meh Hoosier team until late.

Yeah, Notre Dame has struggled a bit too much, it didn’t do anything over the first three games to suggest it was anything special, and it was down in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin before the epic avalanche.

It has an incredible defensive front, safety Kyle Hamilton might be the best safety in college football, and for all the flaws on offense, the team is 4-0 against three Power Five programs including two in the Big Ten.

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What’s Going To Happen

The winner of this game will be the darling of the College Football Playoff prediction crowd until something else happens.

For Notre Dame, a win will get thrown in the bucket with all the big-time programs still to play and coming off the terrific win over Wisconsin in Soldier Field.

For Cincinnati, this is it. After this it’s all American Athletic Conference programs the rest of the way – style points will count here, assuming it’s a win.

The Bearcats will come out roaring. They’ll play like a rested team that’s been waiting for this chance to make a giant playoff statement, but the Irish will settle in.

Neither side will do much for the running game, but the Notre Dame defense will start to take over as the game goes on, it’ll force a key turnover – not the bazillion it got against Wisconsin, but a big one – and it’ll be just enough to be the spark to take the momentum.

Once again, it won’t be a perfect performance, but 5-0 will be 5-0.

– Week 4 CFN NFL Expert Picks

Notre Dame vs Cincinnati Prediction, Line

Notre Dame 26, Cincinnati 24
Line: Cincinnati -2, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5

Must See Rating: 5

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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South Carolina vs Troy Prediction, Game Preview

South Carolina vs Troy prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

South Carolina vs Troy prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

South Carolina vs Troy How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
How To Watch: SEC Network
Record: South Carolina (2-2), Troy (2-2)
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South Carolina vs Troy Game Preview

Why Troy Will Win

The pass rush is a killer.

The offensive side might be hit-or-miss, but the Trojan defense has been suffocating. It’s allowing fewer than 100 rousing yards per game and 244 overall yards per outing helped by 18 sacks in the four games.

South Carolina is having problems putting points on the board. It rolled through Eastern Illinois but scored a total of just 43 over the last three games. The pass protection has been a problem, and the Trojans will take advantage of it. However …

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Why South Carolina Will Win

Yeah, the Troy offense can’t get moving well enough.

The running game hasn’t done much of anything over the last three games, and that’s against Liberty – who just got punched by Syracuse’s ground attack – Southern Miss, and against ULM.

The South Carolina defense has been a plus, mostly against the pass. If Troy can’t crank up the run, it’s not doing anything offensively.

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What’s Going To Happen

The two defenses will take over.

Troy’s D will keep the game from getting out of hand, but the South Carolina running game will be steady enough to get a few points on the board. The Trojan offense will have its chances to take over, but it’ll stall time and again.

It’s not going to be pretty, but South Carolina will take a 3-2 start.

– Week 4 CFN NFL Expert Picks

South Carolina vs Troy Prediction, Line

South Carolina 26, Troy 13
Line: South Carolina -7, o/u: 42.5
ATS Confidence out of 5:

Must See Rating: 2

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Alabama vs Ole Miss Prediction, Game Preview

Alabama vs Ole Miss prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Alabama vs Ole Miss prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Alabama vs Ole Miss How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
How To Watch: CBS
Record: Alabama (4-0), Ole Miss (3-0)
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Alabama vs Ole Miss Game Preview

Why Ole Miss Will Win

The offense can keep up.

Alabama’s got the talent on defense to turn the lights out on just about anyone, but Miami – yes, Miami – Mercer, and Southern Miss don’t have high-powered attacks. Florida was able to bruise and batter its way to making the Bama game interesting in the second half, but it doesn’t have a high-powered passing attack.

Here comes Ole Miss with Matt Corral and company with a dominant 3-0 start with everything clicking. The attack came up with 647 yards in last year’s 63-48 loss to Bama – no one else in 2020 got to 470 – and this time around there’s a D to go along with that O.

At least, there’s a slightly improved D.

This Rebel defense isn’t going to be a brick wall at any point, but it’s athletic, experience, and far less cringe-worthy than the one that give up yards and points by the bucketload in 2020.

There’s more of a pass rush so far this season, the run D is getting gouged just a little bit instead of in monster chunks, and there might be just enough to hold serve so Corral and the offense can push a pass defense that’s been okay, but hasn’t been tested.

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Why Alabama Will Win

Louisville, Austin Peay, Tulane.

Let’s do a little bit of roll slowing here, America.

Ole Miss has a great team with an outstanding offense and a big-time playmaker of a quarterback. It also has a head coach who should and would be the new head man at USC, but won’t be because … well, because.

Yeah, the team has looked and played great, and yeah, there hasn’t been a problem so far, but the team has also taken target practice against a few middleweights and an FCSer.

Ole Miss has been able to get the O going partly because the running game has been unstoppable – that’s not going to work this week. Bama still has to prove that the glitch from the Florida game has been fixed, but just assume that the defensive side isn’t going to meltdown in the second half like it did in Gainesville.

Bama hasn’t been razor sharp so far – there’s a reason Nick Saban has been ranting and raving about a team that’s seemingly the best in college football – but Ole Miss has a bad habit of getting flagged and flagged some more, the O line is a wee bit leaky in pass protection, and for all the good things the attack does, it hasn’t been sharp on third downs.

Ole Miss has to be perfect, and it won’t be.

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What’s Going To Happen

There are two ways this can go.

Alabama decides enough is enough and comes out roaring with a dominant effort to show that it really and truly is the No. 1 team in the country, or this is a firefight of epic proportions that comes down to who has the ball last.

Can Corral pull a Johnny Manziel and take the Heisman with a historic performance with the sports world watching?

Or will this be the moment that Bryce Young sets the tone for the rest of the season for both the Heisman and Alabama?

Both quarterbacks will be great, both offenses will be great, but one defense will come through when it needs to.

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Alabama vs Ole Miss Prediction, Line

Alabama 45, Ole Miss 30
Line: Alabama -14.5, o/u: 79.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 5

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Texas A&M vs Mississippi State Prediction, Game Preview

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Texas A&M vs Mississippi State How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
How To Watch: SEC Network
Record: Mississippi State (2-2), Texas A&M (3-1)
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Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Game Preview

Why Mississippi State Will Win

Things are starting to work, even with two straight losses.

The defense hasn’t been a problem since Mike Leach took over. The Bulldogs continue to be fantastic against the run, they’re great at getting the D off the field, and they have yet to allow over 370 yards in a game.

The offensive side might not be doing a thing down the field, and there’s no running game, but the passing attack is putting up close to 350 yards per game and it’s able to control the clock and the tempo.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M has zero offensive spark.

It’s one thing to play a deliberate, controlled style, but the results have to be there for all the work. The O couldn’t do much of anything against Colorado, and with the Arkansas game there for the taking, the Aggies managed just 272 yards in the 20-10 loss.

Get up early on A&M and it might not have the ability to bounce back.

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Why Texas A&M Will Win

No, really. Mississippi State can’t do anything downfield with its midrange passing attack.

A&M’s defense continues to be everything it was supposed to be. Arkansas was able to come up with a few big plays with a day full of offensive balance, but it didn’t get a whole lot of help from the offensive side. At home, the D will do its part, and now it’s time for the other side of the ball to pound away.

NC State has a decent running game against the mediocre, and the same goes for Memphis – albeit with a difference style – but Mississippi State has yet to face anyone who can line up and blast away.

The offensive line has been a sore spot for A&M, but even with the overall struggles the ground game hasn’t been that bad. It’s averaging over five yards per carry and was effective against Arkansas, but there just weren’t enough carries.

In this, A&M has to hold the ball enough to stop the Mississippi State time of possession stranglehold, and it has to run the ball at least 30 times.

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What’s Going To Happen

Don’t expect fireworks in what should be a tough, intense game between two teams desperate to come up with a bounce back win.

Considering what’s coming up soon for each side, this is a big deal.

At home, A&M will get a huge day out of the D. Mississippi State will dink and dunk, but they passes won’t go anywhere with the Aggies getting physical enough to hold serve on third downs.

It’ll be slow and go for the A&M offense, but the running game will be okay and the field position battle will tilt its way. It won’t be what Aggie fans are hoping for in terms of dominance, but after the loss to the Hogs, just getting the W will be enough.

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Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction, Line

Texas A&M 23, Mississippi State 17
Line: Texas A&M -7, o/u: 46
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 3.5

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Vanderbilt vs UConn Prediction, Game Preview

Vanderbilt vs UConn prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Vanderbilt vs UConn prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Vanderbilt vs UConn How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
How To Watch: ESPNU
Record: Vanderbilt (1-3), UConn (0-5)
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Vanderbilt vs UConn Game Preview

Why UConn Will Win

They’re starting to play better.

The Huskies might be 0-5 and some of the positives still might not be close to good enough, but the 281 yards of total offense in the 24-22 loss to Wyoming was a season high.

At the very least, they’re not getting flagged with a whole slew of bad penalties, the offensive line hasn’t been totally awful at keeping defensives out of the backfield, and freshman QB Tyler Phommachanh is going to get time to start growing into the job.

And on the other side, it’s Vanderbilt. It’s not going to go off offensively, but …

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Why Vanderbilt Will Win

The Commodores might have struggled against Georgia – everyone will – but the running game wasn’t bad against Stanford and the passing attack wasn’t bad in the first two games.

There’s bad, and there’s UConn-level lousy when it comes to total offense. Vanderbilt’s defense should catch a break for the first time since the loss to East Tennessee State, but this should be easier than the opener.

Vandy should be able to do a decent job on the offensive front and should be strong defensively on third downs.

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What’s Going To Happen

UConn is taking baby steps to improve, but Vanderbilt will finally get a decent game.

The Commodore defense will hold up early, the offense will come up with a few early scoring drives, and it’ll be a grind to land the plane. There won’t be anything pretty about it, but at this point, starting 2-3 is all about how the record looks.

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Vanderbilt vs UConn Prediction, Line

Vanderbilt 34, UConn 17
Line: Vanderbilt -14.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 1.5

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Auburn vs LSU Prediction, Game Preview

Auburn vs LSU prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Auburn vs LSU prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Auburn vs LSU How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 9:00 ET
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: Auburn (3-1), LSU (3-1)
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Auburn vs LSU Game Preview

Why Auburn Will Win

The team is resilient.

We still don’t really know what it is quite yet – it won the two layups, battled in an acceptable loss at Penn State, and needed a few breaks to avoid total disaster in a win over Georgia State – but it found a way to pull it out last week against the Panthers in a thrilling last minute comeback.

Under a new coaching staff in a bit of a rebuilding year, that was one of those games that makes a difference. Things weren’t going right, the team wasn’t playing well, and yet a win is a win.

Auburn’s offense found a bit of a burst in the passing game when TJ Finley stepped in and hit 9-of-16 passes for 97 yards and a score. The former LSU Tiger threw for 143 yards and two picks in last year’s 24-13 loss to Auburn, and now he’s on the other side giving his new team another option to go along with Bo Nix, a serviceable SEC quarterback who had one of his best says – completing 75% of his passes for 300 yards and three scores – in last year’s win in this.

LSU is having major defensive issues on third downs and isn’t running the ball a lick, but …

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Why LSU Will Win

The pass rush has been devastating.

There are a whole slew of issues with an LSU team that’s still in rebuild mode after the epic 2019 team, but the defensive front has cranked up 18 sacks in the first four games – okay, a bunch of them were against McNeese State, but the line really is generating pressure.

There’s a reason why TJ Finley is an Auburn Tiger – the injured Myles Brennan was supposed to be the man, and Max Johnson has been strong.

The lefty is hitting 65% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and three picks. He was a bright spot in the loss to LSU, he pulled out the big plays in the win over Mississippi State, and he’s growing into a star as he gets more and more time logged in.

Auburn has been able to work through some of its issues, but it’s not taking the ball away enough and the D has to be stronger after giving up over 300 passing yards to Penn Sate and 267 rushing yards to Georgia State.

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What’s Going To Happen

Some traditions are lame and need to retire even if they are a part of the fabric of our lives. That’s not happening here. For over 20 years of previewing this matchup, the unfunny line for this game goes on …

The Tigers will win.

Both teams are still trying to figure it all out, and it’ll lead to a fun game that stays close late.

LSU will be a bit stronger with the passing attack in the fourth quarter to pull off a thriller that might not cause an earthquake, but will be a big moment for a program that’s looking to be a factor in the SEC race.

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Auburn vs LSU Prediction, Line

LSU 27, Auburn 24
Line: LSU -3.5, o/u: 54.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 4

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Florida vs Kentucky Prediction, Game Preview

Florida vs Kentucky prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Florida vs Kentucky prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

Florida vs Kentucky How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 6:00 ET
Venue: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: Florida (3-1), Kentucky (4-0)
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Florida vs Kentucky Game Preview

Why Florida Will Win

The Gator running game continues to be fantastic.

While the high-powered passing attack was a whole lot of fun last year, this is more of the Dan Mullen style of O – with a decent passing game to go along for the ride.

The quarterbacks can move, the running backs are gashing, and the Gators are averaging well over 300 yards per game on the ground averaging a whopping 7.6 yards per carry. Do that, stay in control of games, and rely on a defense that’s fantastic at getting into the backfield.

However …

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Why Kentucky Will Win

So far, the Kentucky run defense has been solid.

Missouri was able throw its way for close to 300 yards, but for the most part the defense has tough up front allowing 104 rushing yards or fewer against the three FBS teams on the state.

This UK team is trying to be more explosive and add more of a downfield passing element to its style, but it’s also able to control the clock. It’s great on third downs, the lines have been strong, and overall, it’s the No. 2 defense among SEC teams behind Georgia. But …

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What’s Going To Happen

There’s a reason why Kentucky is playing so well in the 4-0 start. September was supposed to be like this.

The Cats had a mild first month against ULM, Missouri, Chattanooga, and South Carolina, but October is a bear with LSU, at Georgia, and at Mississippi State after this date with the Gators.

Florida has turnover issues, but Kentucky’s are worse with a -9 turnover margin thanks to three turnovers in three of the four games.

More than anything else, it’s Kentucky, and it’s Florida.

In 2018, the Dan Mullen era did exactly what it couldn’t do to get rolling – it lost to UK. Outside of that 27-16 defeat, you have go back to 1986 for the only other time in the last 45 years that Big Blue was able to win.

The Florida offense gets going fast on the ground, but the defensive front will put up a strong performance, too. The UK attack will struggle to get its own rushing game going.

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Florida vs Kentucky Prediction, Line

Florida 34, Kentucky 23
Line: Florida -8.5, o/u: 55
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 3.5

5: ‘The Low End Theory’ 30th anniversary
1: Not knowing how David Letterman rolls

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Big Ten Predictions, Schedule, Game Previews, Lines, TV: Week 5

Big Ten college football predictions, schedule, game previews, lines, how to watch, and TV listings for Week 5 of the season.

Big Ten college football predictions, schedule, game previews, lines, how to watch, and TV listings for Week 5 of the season.

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Click on each game for game preview & prediction

Results So Far
SU: 39-10, ATS: 32-17, Point Total: 34-13-1

Friday, October 1

Iowa at Maryland

8:00, FS1
Line: Iowa -3.5, o/u: 47.5

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