Category: Buckeyes Wire

Ohio State gets leapfrogged by LSU in latest CFP Rankings, but is that the right call?

The CFP Committee is supposed to rank the best teams, not the teams with the best resumes. Ohio State drops to No. 2 and it’s not right.

We all saw it coming from a mile away. By way of its win on the road against Alabama, the LSU Tigers have moved ahead of Ohio State and grabbed the No. 1 spot in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings. The Buckeyes checked in at No. 2.

So much for looking at things objectively and railing against the national narrative. It’s one thing for it to happen with the narrow-minded AP and Amway Coaches Polls, but it’s another for the so-called smartest minds in football to do it with an unbiased eye.

I agree that there’s something to be said about the resume the Tigers have put together with four Top 25 wins and all, but at some point it seems like a bit of a cop out. Do you reward the most deserving team, or the better team? Ohio State has been more dominant than any other team out there, yet it drops to LSU because of the Alabama and SEC curve yet again.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again. Teams that play well against Alabama are given preferential treatment time and time again. A two-loss Georgia team appeared ahead of a one-loss Big Ten Champion Ohio State in the last set of CFP Rankings last year. And now, simply for beating the Tide, LSU gets the benefit of the doubt and leaps over the Buckeyes for the No. 1 spot.

The advanced metrics for Ohio State have been setting records.You couple that with the Buckeyes’ total domination on the field, and it feels like the CFP fell in line with popular opinion because LSU being better than Alabama means it’s better than anyone else.

Hogwash.

It’s time to ask the question of whether this Ohio State team, if having an SEC logo on the front of its jersey, would have dropped. If Alabama would have been this dominant in recent years, I’d bet the farm that there’s no way, no how, it would drop from the No. 1 slot unless it lost. I mean, Ohio State put up 73 freakin’ points against Maryland, hasn’t played a game close yet, has the nation’s best defense, and a top five offense.

Better yet, Ohio State leads the country in yards allowed per game, points per game given up, points scored per game on offense, and yet it still gets leapfrogged because a team from the SEC beat Alabama. OSU looked utterly dominant against a Power Five opponent last game despite missing its best player.

There’s not one thing Ohio State could have done better than what it has to date to be the No. 1 team in the country other than by drinking sweet tea and having grits and bologna sandwiches for breakfast.

It’s a good thing we have four teams that make this playoff because it’ll take a little of the SEC bias out of the equation. Or so we hope.

You have to do better College Football Playoff Committee and quit drinking the SEC Kool-Aid. Just you wait though until the SEC gets two teams in all the fun yet again.

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What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Blow teams out

What did we learn from the CFP selection committee’s second rankings? Let’s break down what it all means.

In what is a bit of a first from the CFP selection committee, it actually has a very predictable consistent methodology so far this year. However, it’s not a good methodology, and it’s a trend that’s not a good one. The committee isn’t particularly looking at resumes or strength of schedules. It’s not talking about quality wins or schedule strength. No, this year, the committee only seems to care about how much a team wins by.

Maybe this is a bit of an overreaction based on a small sample size. After all, it’s only the second ranking, and there are potentially somewhat reasonable explanations for all of the rankings. (Well, assuming that “Alabama always gets benefit of the doubt” constitutes a somewhat reasonable explanation.)

Let’s look at it, from bottom to top. SMU–the only team to win but drop out of the rankings–very clearly fell out due to a close win over a bad team. The Mustangs still have a considerably stronger schedule and resume than Appalachian State does. That didn’t seem to matter.

This is the only explanation for both Baylor and Oklahoma being so low. Baylor is one of five undefeated Power 5 teams, and is ranked all the way down at No. 13. Not only is Baylor ranked behind one-loss teams, it’s ranked behind two-loss teams. And, contrary to claims of Baylor having a bad resume (and I’m perfectly fine with the committee punishing Baylor for an atrocious nonconference schedule), the Bears have two ranked wins–more than some of the teams in front of them. Oklahoma also has two ranked wins (and a loss to a ranked team), yet is ranked behind both Utah and Oregon–who combine for zero ranked wins. Rob Mullens did again hint that Baylor was punished for its nonconference schedule, but this message appears clearer.

The committee doesn’t tell us much often. But, for now, at least, the committee seems to have determined that the eye test is king.

Making sense of Alabama, Minnesota, and Penn State

Last week, the committee somewhat contradicted itself with how it ranked Alabama, Penn State, and Clemson. Penn State’s “superior resume” supposedly put the Nittany Lions in front of Clemson, though now it seems far more likely that Clemson was just being punished for a close win over North Carolina. Penn State also has several close wins, but those were all against teams worse than North Carolina.

Alabama, meanwhile, seems to be skating through on the fact that it has blown everyone out. Of course, none of the teams Alabama blew out were particularly good. Alabama has no ranked wins–in fact, this is the first time that a one-loss team has been ranked as high as No. 5 this early in the season without a win over a committee-ranked team.

Minnesota is down at No. 8. The Golden Gophers have–other than LSU’s win over Alabama–the best win of any ranked team. The Golden Gophers are also undefeated, and yet behind four teams with a loss. I honestly have no idea how to explain the fact that Minnesota is behind Utah. Maybe this is just a bit of an oversight by the committee?

Other notes

I said yesterday to keep an eye on if the committee shifts things around, or if teams stay static from week to week. That will tell us if the voters are really re-evaluating from scratch each week, or just moving teams up or down based on who loses.

Well, this week, not a single team is in the same position it was in last week. You would think that’s an indicator that the committee is re-evaluating. Unfortunately, it’s not. 14 of the 25 teams that moved moved only one spot, and all of that was due to teams around them jumping or falling. Minnesota jumped eight spots for beating Penn State, so everyone above Minnesota fell a spot. Penn State dropped, so everyone behind Penn State rose. Wake Forest and Kansas State dropped with losses, so the teams behind them moved up.

No one stayed in the same place, but every team that didn’t lose or pick up a major win stayed in the same relative position. The committee didn’t do any re-evaluating this week. It just took what it had last week, other than teams that deserved major shifts.

Lastly, I should note that the committee is continuing a trend it has shown consistently since 2014. A team doesn’t drop for a close loss to a better team. The example this week is Iowa, which only slid three spots for its very close loss against Wisconsin. One of those spots was Texas, which jumped all the way into the rankings at No. 19 for its upset of Kansas State.

Maybe next week the committee will do more re-evaluating from scratch, and it’s really only the top four that matter anyway. Still, the little we have seen and heard from the selection committee so far this season is not encouraging, to say the least.

Chase Young’s Heisman chances plummet with suspension looming

Just two weeks ago Chase Young was a top-two candidate for the Heisman trophy. Now, after sitting one game, he’s barely in the top five.

Just two weeks ago Chase Young was a top-three candidate for the Heisman trophy. He was looking to join the top-tier candidates, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, with an easy outing against Maryland.

Now, after sitting one game, he’s barely in the top five, and it seems that LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is pulling away from the pack.

Young was held out of the team’s 69-point victory over Maryland. His status for what should be another massive Buckeyes victory against Rutgers this Saturday is unknown.

While the official penalty for accepting a small loan from a family friend which was repaid is still in the air, if he continues to miss games, he can kiss any shot at the Heisman trophy goodbye.

A four-sack performance against Wisconsin in another dominant effort from the Buckeyes just over two weeks ago bounced the projected top-five pick over the likes of Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields.

However, according to ESPN’s Heisman Watch, Young has slid under fellow teammate Justin Fields. Young sits at No. 5 and received just 12 votes with zero first-place votes. He had 24 votes in the week following the Wisconsin game.

Young has 13.5 sacks on the season and could’ve easily set the single-season Ohio State record this past weekend. The record is currently 14.0 which was set by Vernon Gholston in 2007.

The Ohio State defensive didn’t skip a beat without Young on the line. They gave up just two touchdowns all game and none in the first a half, a 30-minute period where they totaled 42 points.

As for Young, it’s likely he’s out again Saturday, but there seems to be hope that he’ll take on Penn State and Michigan to finish the regular season. That said, if he does miss these two games which could’ve easily solidified his claim as a competitor for the Heisman, his chances are virtually over.

Young would’ve been just the second defender to have won the award and the first since Charles Woodson did it in 1997. For now, that’s looking extremely unlikely, although we haven’t seen a collegiate defender as dominant as Young in decades.

Ohio State football sets new all-time high in ESPN FPI metric

Ohio State has been dominant in 2019, and one metric used to track such things by the ESPN FPI has been broken by the Buckeyes.

Ohio State continues to dominate in 2019. Not one single team has been able to provide anything resembling a challenge against the Buckeyes. So far, the season’s opponents have been like a wet paper towel against a freight train.

Now, if we rewind all the way back to the beginning of the year before all the games began, the ESPN Football Power Index had little faith in Ohio State being this dominant. In fact, it was on the fringe of not even appearing on any of the graphics projecting the top teams for the season.

My how things have now changed. Not only has Ohio State been the No. 1 team for a few weeks now in the FPI ratings, just this past week it shattered the all-time high measurement in the points above average rating per Brad Edwards of ESPN.

The Buckeyes points above average in layman terms means that Ohio State is 34.7 points better than your average college football team.  Lookout well-below average Rutgers, you have been put on notice.

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Now, ESPN only began collecting these data sets in 2004, but that’s better than 2005 Texas (national champs), 2005 USC (Pete Carroll dynasty), and 2013 Florida State (Jameis Winston national champs).

That’s quite the achievement, especially since it is only November and there’s still plenty of time to improve the rating. If we are then to forecast where this team will land, well — if history is any indication — it should be in the College Football Playoff and have a great chance of winning the whole ball of wax.

Now, the games have to be played, but this is as telling of a stat when it comes to domination as one can get. If, that is, you put much stock in ESPN’s FPI.

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Dwayne Haskins named Redskins’ starter for remainder of season

Former Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins has officially been named the Washington Redskins starter for the remainder fo the season.

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Former Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins is getting the shot he’s been dreaming of. That’s because he was named the starting quarterback for the Washington Redskins for the remainder of the season Monday by interim head coach Bill Calahan.

Haskins had already been given the starting nod when Case Keenum went into concussion protocol, but it was thought to be a cup of coffee until he was back and fully healthy. However, the firing of head coach Jay Gruden may have thrown a bit of a wrench into things and precipitated the desire to get the rookie quarterback the experience needed to evaluate and move his development forward.

So, after starting two-straight weeks, Haskins is now the guy through the rest of the season.

The Dwyane Haskins era in Washington has officially started. Let’s see how this kid slings it around the last seven games of the year. The Redskins face the New York Jets Sunday.

Should Ohio State still be ranked at the top of the CFP Rankings this week?

Both Ohio State and LSU will have a case to make when it comes to being ranked No. 1 in the next College Football Playoff Rankings.

After totally dismantling Maryland this past week in a 73-14 win, does it still warrant Ohio State being ranked No. 1 this week in the College Football Playoff rankings? On Saturday Ohio State put up the most points against any Big Ten team since 1950. That — in itself — is quite impressive.

But the Buckeyes weren’t the only team that put on an impressive showing.

With the huge win against Alabama and four top 25 wins, LSU has a good argument to be number one when the rankings come out Tuesday night. The Tigers’ resume that includes high caliber wins  is tough to argue, but it poses the question of what the committee values the most? Pure dominance or wins against ranked opponents? In other words, is it best resume, or most dominant and impressive team via the eye test and metrics?

We digress and discuss …

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Next … LSU’s case

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What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s second rankings

With the College Football Playoff selection committee about to release their second rankings of the year, here’s what to look out for.

Before I look at what we should be focusing on in the committee’s second rankings, let me start with what not to worry about, even though it will be the most-discussed topic by many pundits.

It doesn’t matter whether LSU or Ohio State is No. 1.

One of those two will be the top-ranked team. Each of them has a valid argument. Ohio State is exemplifying dominance in a way that college football hasn’t seen since the 2013 Florida State team. The Buckeyes have historically high advanced metrics. Ohio State is the best team in college football so far this year, without question.

LSU, also without question, has the best resume. Starting with the win over Alabama as a capstone, the Tigers also have wins over Top 10-15 Florida and Auburn, plus a win over a ranked Texas team. Even LSU’s cupcakes, like Georgia Southern and Utah State, aren’t complete pushovers. LSU has an incredible strength of schedule and the most quality wins of anyone in the country.

Which of those two the committee chooses to put at No. 1 will give us a bit of evidence as to whether the voters care more about metrics or resume, but not much. It’s usually some form of synthesis between the two, and with two teams so far ahead of the rest of the pack like Ohio State and LSU, it really doesn’t matter which they pick.

What the committee says about its decision might mean something. If Rob Mullens said the vote wasn’t particularly close, that would give us some real insight into the committee’s thought process and what it values this year. Unless we get that information, though, don’t focus too much into which team is No. 1 and which is No. 2. Each team is a Playoff lock if it wins out, or even if it loses a game but wins the conference. The top seed only matters for geography and matchup purposes, and with Clemson currently a heavy favorite to finish No. 3, it doesn’t look like anyone could be stuck with the nuisance of facing Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Other than that one, very minor, geographic concern, it really doesn’t matter who is No. 1.

So, what does matter this week? There’s plenty, so let’s break it down.

Poll mentality or not?

The first thing I always focus on in the committee’s rankings is how many teams shift, and by how much. And I don’t mean the teams that win big games or lose games. I mean every team.

The committee claims to start with a blank slate every week. The voters don’t use who they had ranked last week as a starting point. The very best way to tell if this is true or not is by seeing if teams that didn’t do anything noteworthy have their ranking change. Can a team slide up or down after a boring but easy win over a mediocre team? If we’re being honest, that should happen a lot. Every team has played at least eight games by now, so resumes can shift wildly each week.

For example, Ohio State’s previous opponents went a combined 4-2 last week, and Indiana will possibly slide into the rankings during its bye week. That means that, even though a blowout win over Maryland might be meaningless, Ohio State’s resume still improved this past week, and by a decent margin. Now, that’s not going to affect Ohio State’s ranking much because the Buckeyes are obviously either No. 1 or No. 2, but if Ohio State was stuck somewhere in the middle of the rankings, that should lead to new considerations.

The first few years of the selection committee, we actually saw a fair amount of this. Teams would shift on their own, which is a great indicator that resumes were actually being re-judged each week. The past year or two, however, we have not yet really seen much shifting. The committee would make its initial rankings, then stick with a poll mentality unless something changed it. Keep an eye on everyone in this week’s rankings, because it will show if the committee is actually re-evaluating teams.

Next… Where is Alabama

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Kirk Herbstreit now puts LSU over Ohio State in his weekly rankings

Kirk Herbstreit puts out a weekly opinion of the top teams in college football. This week, he’s elevated LSU over Ohio State as No. 1.

It’s amazing what a win over Alabama will do. Heck, even a close loss against the Tide seems to get you credit these days (right 2018 Georgia).

Count Kirk Herbstreit among the believers now in LSU football. After the Tigers went to Bryant Denny Stadium and knocked off undefeated Alabama, he’s now leap-frogged LSU over his Alma-Mater for the top team in college football.

He still has Ohio State No. 2 after it put 73 points on the board without Chase Young, but its clear he and the rest of the college football media universe is now elevating the Bayou Tigers to the top spot based on the number of resume boosting wins it has in pocket now.

That’s despite all the metrics still believing the Buckeyes are far and away the best team in the country this year to date.

Here’s a look at Herbstreit’s top six. After LSU and Ohio State, he has Clemson at No. 3, and Georgia back in the mix at No. 4. Just outside of the coveted (albeit unofficial opinion based) top four spots are Alabama and undefeated Minnesota.

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It might be disappointing for some Buckeye fans to see one of their own drop Ohio State after it looked absolutely dominant against Maryland. But it’s hard to argue with the wins LSU has strung together this year.

Never fret, it’ll all sort itself out in the upcoming weeks, and clearly if Ohio State keeps winning, it’ll be a part of all the fun in the end and still has a great shot at the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

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Ohio State keeps rising in advanced metrics, even without Chase Young

The Ohio State Buckeyes improved their overall ratings in multiple advanced metrics, even with Chase Young sitting out.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were without Chase Young this past week, but that didn’t stop them from dominating Maryland. Then again, no one expected the Buckeyes to do anything other than dominate the Terps. Even without Young, Ohio State was still favored by over 40 points–a spread the Buckeyes easily covered.

What is impressive, though, is that Ohio State managed to improve its score in advanced metrics in the process. These metrics, whether they operate on a possession-by-possession or play-by-play basis, expect teams like Ohio State to blow out teams like Maryland. Without a star defensive player, you might expect that Ohio State’s numbers would slip a bit. But that didn’t happen. Not only did the Buckeyes not slip, they rose even further.

In Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, the Buckeyes stayed pretty static on both offense and defense. The defensive rating barely moved, from giving up an expected 9.0 points per game against an average team to giving up 9.1. Ohio State’s overall rating skyrocketed to an unheard-of 36.9, though, on the back of special teams ratings becoming more valuable this week. (There are fewer special teams plays in a game so it takes longer in the season for them to reach their full value.)

In ESPN’s FPI ratings, the Buckeyes rose to an incredible 34.7 points better than an average team. The rating last week was 33.8. Without Chase Young, Ohio State still managed to make its overall score a point better in one week. What could have happened if Young was on the field?

And, lastly, the Buckeyes improved their Sagarin rating as well. The Predictor, Golden Mean, and Recent ratings all rose about one point (Recent was the lowest, at .81) with the domination of Maryland.

Chase Young is an incredible player, and perhaps he might be needed against an elite offensive line in the CFP. But against everyone else, Ohio State’s other linemen are still better than whoever is trying to block them. That means that the Buckeyes can improve their overall efficiencies, even without their top player on the field.

NFF Super 16 poll is out. Ohio State loses first place votes to LSU

The latest NFF Super 16 College Football Poll is out. Ohio State moved up, but it lost almost all of its first place votes to LSU.

The new NFF Super 16 College Football Poll is out and Ohio State has risen one more spot, and now sits just one place below the top at No. 2.

As with most other polls, LSU has secured the overall No. 1 ranking by way of its win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa over the weekend. The Tigers have put together more top-end wins than anyone else in the country, and it has been enough to be an almost unanimous choice across the major polls.

Also of note, Ohio State has lost almost all of its first place votes to LSU. It has gone from receiving 11 in the last release to just 3 in this one. Again, it’s hard to argue why, but all the metrics seem to feel Ohio State is still the clear No. 1 team in the country. It’s all really about the resume for LSU.

But, it is a good one, and it’ll all sort itself out as the last few games of the year take place. If you’re Ohio State, all you need to do is keep winning and finish in the top four of the College Football Playoff Rankings.

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The next release of the CFP Rankings comes out Tuesday. Don’t be surprised if the Buckeyes fall from No. 1 to No. 2 in that one because of same reason.