Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy
The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis
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Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen?
WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 (4-0) vs. Navy Midshipmen 3-3 (2-2)
WHEN: Saturday, October 21st — 10:00 A.M. MT/ 9:00 A.M. PT
WHERE: Navy-Marine Corp Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
WEATHER: Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 63F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Amanda Guerra (sidelines)
STREAM: FuboTV
RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)
SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 33-22
WEBSITES: NavySports.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Navy | Air Force
SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.6
FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 17
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 80.67% chance to win (26.18-13.2)
The biggest game of the Air Force season is being played in Annapolis this Saturday. Coincidentally, it’s also the biggest game of the year for Navy as well. Yes, by Sunday, the biggest game of the year for one of these two teams will have changed and involve that Military Academy in New York, but that game has little relevance until Air Force plays Navy.
This is where the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy begins!
Navy has looked underwhelming more times than not, with an up and down 3-3 start to the year. By some though, three wins at this point in the season may be a tic above expectation. Despite a revolving door of quarterbacks, and generally inconsistent output from their offense, the Mids are still in bowl contention, as well as vying for the all important CiC Trophy.
Navy will likely be relying on a very experienced Senior Tai Lavatai at quarterback on Saturday. He’s been the on and off again starter for what seems the last three seasons. But this is the same guy that last beat Army for Navy, so he’s no stranger to big games. Expect to see Braxton Woodson, the Freshman direct enrollee to see some playing time as well.
The quarterback situation at Air Force got very interesting late in their thrilling win over Wyoming last week. Jensen Jones entered the game when Zac Larrier went down with a knee injury. The offense stumbled at first with the change under center fumbling twice, but settled after under Jones control, masterfully executing an option pitch to the boundary that John Lee Eldridge II took to the house from 70 yards out. Jones also put the game on ice with their last possession, getting tough yards inside converting a first down to put the game on ice.
As if this game needed any additional juice, Navy is going to be honoring All-Time great Roger Staubach with a ceremony at the game. If the Falcons want Staubach’s jersey number adorning the field to be the only cause for celebration for the Mids, they had better come prepared for four quarters of football. Otherwise, Air Force’s stint being ranked, along with their possession of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy may be abbreviated.
HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN SINK THE MIDS
There is likely to be precipitation at some point during Saturday’s game. Ball security is always critical when you run some version of a time consuming option offense. I know many at Navy contend they have changed from the conventional triple option offense, but ultimately both of these teams have very similar philosophies. They run a lot, and they run very well.
Which brings up the biggest threat that the Falcons need to take inventory of, Alec Tecza. The Navy fullback is in a similar mold to Brad Roberts, minus a career suggesting he’s an all-time great at the program. Yet. Tecza is just a sophomore and has been a game changer with the ball in his hands.
Averaging over 230 yards per game on the ground, 5th best nationally, Navy has a lot of talent in their backfield. The fullbacks are an absolute strength with Daba Fofana and Tecza. The Air Force front seven have got to limit what the Mids backs are able to do on early downs especially.
Another area of the game to pay close attention to is turnovers. In games like this, the impact of a turnover seems to be magnified. Despite some very lopsided losses, Navy is one of the best at creating turnovers, forcing 12 of them. That’s twice as many as Air Force on the season. Neither team has thrown an interception this year, it will be interesting to see how many times the Falcons put the ball in the air with Jones getting his first start. The Falcons need a clean game in Annapolis.
I suspect the biggest deciding factor in this game is going to come through sustainability. The ability to keep drives alive, even if to flip field position, and conversely the ability to get off of the field. Both of these teams feature strong third down defenses. But where Air Force really stands out among the competition is in their ability to convert third downs. They are the best in the country, converting almost 60% of their third downs.
That defensive unit of Brian Knorr’s, not Newberry, is one of the best in the country. They aren’t going to make it easy for Navy to find daylight, a rhythm, conversions or points.
Even if the Navy run defense which allows double (148 yards per game) what the Falcons surrender on the ground, I don’t see it being sustainable. Eventually the dam is going to break from fatigue, as Air Force has shown a much better ability to maintain drives offensively and end them defensively. A slow suffocation.
I realize much of this relies on a quarterback making their first start on a critical stage. But all those diesels in front of Jensen Jones have experience to spare, and the supporting cast in the backfield is as dynamic and deep as any. Ask Wyoming if Jensen Jones can make a play to put you out.
And even if the game does come down to special teams, thankfully for Air Force, they have a dynamic kicker in Mathew Dapore who is perfect on the year.
Air Force Sings Second.
Air Force 20 – Navy 15
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