The Miami Marlins (4-6) and Philadelphia Phillies (3-6) open a 3-game set Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. Phillies won last season’s series 12-7.
The Marlins won 7-2 as +124 underdogs at the New York Mets Sunday. OF Bryan De La Cruz hit a 3-run HR in the top of the 1st inning as Miami avoided getting swept in the 3-game series.
The Phillies lost 6-4 as -203 home favorites vs. the Cincinnati Reds Sunday. Philadelphia blew a 4-2 lead heading into the 8th inning and failed to sweep the Reds in the 3-game set.
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Marlins at Phillies projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcántara vs. LHP Matt Strahm
Alcántara (1-0, 1.84 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 4.3 K/9 through 14 2/3 IP.
- Went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 228 2/3 IP across 32 starts in 2022.
- Career vs. Philadelphia: 6-7 with a 3.15 ERA (103 IP, 36 ER) in 16 starts.
Strahm (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 3rd appearance. He has a 0.40 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 5 IP.
- Posted a 4-4 record with a 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 44 2/3 IP across 50 relief appearances for the Boston Red Sox in 2022.
- Career vs. Miami: 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 8 ER) in 1 start and 5 relief appearances.
Marlins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 3, Phillies 2
Moneyline
BET MARLINS (-130).
Alcántara has picked up right where he left off last season as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner. Strahm has struggled vs. Miami in the past and Philadelphia’s pitching staff has the 4th-highest ERA this season at 5.68.
Miami is 4-0 in its last 4 games vs. left-handed starters and should be able to take advantage of this Phillies team that has underperformed to start the season.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
It is unlikely that Philadelphia would lose back-to-back home games by multiple runs. Philadelphia should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Marlins’ moneyline is the better play. Bet Marlins moneyline and/or the total instead.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-110).
The Under is 9-4-3 in Miami’s last 16 games and 4-1-1 in Miami’s last 6 on the road. These teams tend to play low-scoring games vs. each other, with the Under hitting in 8 of the last 10 meetings, and Monday’s matchup should stay under the total once again with Alcántara on the mound.
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