Tremaine Edmunds leaving the Buffalo Bills for the Chicago Bears made headlines during the opening days of NFL free agency. Not just in western New York, but across the league.
Edmunds inked a four-year, $72 million deal. It’s the largest contract of four years for a linebacker in the NFL.
That alone gave Pro Football Focus enough to label the deal among their list of “boom-or-bust” contracts signed during free agency.
But in Edmunds’ case, it goes even deeper than that.
PFF noted how Edmunds had a strong 2022 season in Buffalo. However, the football analytics outlet does not forget the past like some have.
While the 25-year-old defender had a strong year and a ton of potential in front of him, he did not have the best of starts to his career. In fact, some wondered if the Bills would even pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal once upon a time. Buffalo did that and it paid off but it was never set in stone.
Edmunds cashed in on that success in 2022, but he still will need to live up to his new contract.
Here’s PFF’s “boom-or-bust” breakdown on Edmunds to the Bears:
Perhaps no big free agency move will be under more of a microscope than Edmunds’ arrival in Chicago. He will be compared to former Chicago Bears linebacker Roquan Smith every step of the way. Edmunds was selected No. 16 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, eight picks after Smith was taken by the Bears. Now, Smith is a Baltimore Raven following a deadline trade, and Edmunds signs on to replace him.
Edmunds’ 86.9 coverage grade in 2022 was the third-best mark among off-ball linebackers, and he forced an incompletion on 10.3% of targets into his coverage while allowing just four explosive receptions the entire season (0.9% of targets into his coverage, ninth among linebackers). Edmunds also missed just 6.5% of potential tackles, the lowest rate of his career and another huge sign of continued growth from a football intelligence and play recognition standpoint.
With Edmunds now confirmed to be playing the middle linebacker spot in Chicago, it makes sense that he is viewed as more of a fit given his 6-foot-5 frame and 34.5-inch arms — which rank in the 99th percentile among off-ball linebackers. He will be expected to run the seam in Cover 2 and use his 4.54-second 40-yard dash speed to cover ground over the middle. However, fans will ultimately not care much about his perceived scheme fit if the production we saw in 2022 doesn’t follow, with Roquan Smith a favorite in the city over his rookie contract.
Chicago may have just pulled off a very sharp swap by acquiring extra second- and fifth-round picks while still signing their middle linebacker of the future long term, but the downside risk is also there.
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