The Washington Nationals (49-63) and Philadelphia Phillies (61-51) open a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park Monday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 3-3
The Nationals have been playing their best baseball of the season, winning 4 games in a row and 5 of their last 6. Washington is 6-4, 12-8 and 16-14 over its last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. There is still very little chance of a playoff run, but the Nats are going to make it tough in the spoiler role.
The Phillies took 2 of 3 from the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. Philadelphia is 11-9 and 17-13 over its last 20 and 30 games, respectively. The Phils are still 10 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves, but they hold the top NL Wild Card spot.
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Nationals at Phillies projected starters
RHP Trevor Williams vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Williams (5-6, 4.72 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 108 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K July 30 against New York Mets
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 1-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 17 K in 23 IP
Suarez (2-5, 4.01 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 3 K Tuesday against Miami Marlins
- Last 5 starts vs. Nats: 4-1, 4.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 22 K in 30 IP
Nationals at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Phillies -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Nationals 4
Moneyline
The Nats’ 5 wins in their last 6 games have come against the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers — 2 teams in position for October. They have also made it tough on Philly this year.
However, I just can’t bring myself to the point of taking their ML in this one as they are 17-24 against left-handed starters and 10-19 within the division.
I’ll PASS and look to the spread.
Run line/Against the spread
The spread has a lot of momentum. Washington is 63-49 ATS on the season, which is crazy for a team 14 games under .500. The Nats are also 38-18 ATS on the road. The Phils are 17-34 on the RL at home. These same starters faced off on July 2, and the Nats won 5-4.
Take the NATIONALS +1.5 (-105) as my favorite bet in the game.
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Over/Under
The Nats have been winning via run prevention. Over the last 6-game stretch, they allowed 3 or fewer runs 5 times and won them all. They are also 2-8 O/U over the last 10, and the Phils are 6-4. The Over is 6-3-1 O/U over the last 10 between the teams, but it has been back-and-forth this season at 3-2-1.
There were 9 runs the last time these pitchers met, and I’m going to LEAN UNDER 9.5 (+100).
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