Tag: Nationals Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (20-22) and Philadelphia Phillies (31-14) begin a 3-game series Friday with 1st pitch from Citizens Bank Park slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Nationals dropped their series finale against the Chicago White Sox 2-0 on Wednesday. They were shut out the final 2-games of this series in Chicago against a team that allows nearly 5 runs per game. Washington got a solid starting performance from LHP Patrick Corbin, who allowed 2 ER over 5 2/3 IP. The Nats have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Philadelphia had its 3-game win streak snapped by the New York Mets on Thursday, 6-5 in 11 innings. 2B Bryson Stott pushed the game to extra innings with a game tying RBI single in the bottom of the 9th. Phillies closer LHP Jose Alvarado took the loss after allowing an RBI single to DH J.D. Martinez, who scored the winning run on a wild pitch. The Phillies are 1-1 during their current 9-game homestand.

Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Jake Irvin vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Irvin (2-3, 3.55 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 loss at the Boston Red Sox Saturday
  • Last start vs Phillies: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-2 loss at home on April 6

Wheeler (4-3, 2.53 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 53 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-6 road loss against the Miami Marlins Sunday
  • 2023 vs. Nationals: 2-1, 7.48 ERA, 21 2/3 IP, 29 H, 18 ER, 2 BB, 20 K in 4 starts

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Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday 11:51 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Phillies -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+104) | Phillies -1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 1

Moneyline.

PASS.

The Nationals are struggling at the plate and I see that continuing on Friday night in Philadelphia against Wheeler. I like the Phillies (-270), but I’m not going to bet nearly 3 units to win 1 back. I’ll save my wager for the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-125).

Philadelphia has the best record in baseball and for good reason, they are a really good team. Their lineup is stacked top to bottom and they are 20-6 against right-handed pitching this season. They already got a good look at Irvin and put up 4 ER against him.

The Nationals have scored 0 runs in their last 19 innings. Prior to his struggles against the Marlins in his last start, Wheeler had allowed just 1 ER over his 4 previous starts (25 1/3 IP).

The Phillies run differential on the season is +70, so they aren’t just beating teams, they are throttling them. Philadelphia has won 15 of their last 20 games.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

I really wanted to like the Over in this game since the Phillies have been Over in 6 of their last 7 games, but the Nationals lineup just has no pop. They have been Under in 5 of their last 6 games and were shut out in their last 2 games by a team with the 2nd-worst record in baseball. The last 4 meetings between these 2 teams the Under cashed.

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (49-63) and the Philadelphia Phillies (61-51) open a 4-game series Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch in Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 3-3

These teams were expected to open the 4-game set Monday, but Mother Nature had other plans. Monday’s postponed game is being made up as part of a doubleheader Tuesday.

Washington played with a little ‘Natitude’ over the weekend, sweeping a 3-game set from the Cincinnati Reds. The Nats have won 5 of the past 6 games overall, but Washington is still 14 games under .500 overall. The Under has cashed in 4 straight, and 6 of the past 7 outings.

Philadelphia took 2 of 3 games from the suddenly pesky Kansas City Royals at home over the weekend, and the Phillies are 5-2 across the past 7 games overall. Totally opposite of the Nats, the Over has cashed in 3 in a row, and 4 of the past 5 games for the Phils.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Williams (5-6, 4.72 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 108 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 5-2 road loss vs. New York Mets on July 30
  • 2023 road splits: 3-3, 5.02 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 32 ER – 14 HR), .305 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts

Wheeler (8-5, 3.71 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 131 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 9-8 road loss in 12 innings vs. the Miami Marlins Wednesday
  • 2023 home splits: 2-2, 4.03 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 27 ER – 7 HR), .226 OBA in 10 starts

Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Phillies -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+115) | Phillies -1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Nationals 4

Moneyline

The Phillies (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s just way too much risk for not enough reward.

Plus, Philadelphia has had a difficult time with the Nationals (+220) this season, and Washington is playing pretty good ball lately, too.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

If things go according to plan, the PHILLIES -1.5 (-140) should be able to cover the run line in Game 1.

Williams has been very giving this season, coughing up 14 homers in 57 1/3 IP across 12 road outings. That’s bad news when playing in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park. Expect the Philadelphia offense to come alive, especially with a wind blowing from left field to right field at 13-16 mph.

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Over/Under

OVER 9 (+100) is the lean, and remember the wind situation. Left-handed batters could see some wind-aided homers against the pitchers, especially Williams.

The Over is 6-2-1 in the past 9 meetings in this series and is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 games overall.

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (49-63) and Philadelphia Phillies (61-51) open a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park Monday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 3-3

The Nationals have been playing their best baseball of the season, winning 4 games in a row and 5 of their last 6. Washington is 6-4, 12-8 and 16-14 over its last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. There is still very little chance of a playoff run, but the Nats are going to make it tough in the spoiler role.

The Phillies took 2 of 3 from the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. Philadelphia is 11-9 and 17-13 over its last 20 and 30 games, respectively. The Phils are still 10 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves, but they hold the top NL Wild Card spot.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Williams (5-6, 4.72 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 108 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K July 30 against New York Mets
  • Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 1-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 17 K in 23 IP

Suarez (2-5, 4.01 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 3 K Tuesday against Miami Marlins
  • Last 5 starts vs. Nats: 4-1, 4.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 22 K in 30 IP

Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Phillies -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Moneyline

The Nats’ 5 wins in their last 6 games have come against the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers — 2 teams in position for October. They have also made it tough on Philly this year.

However, I just can’t bring myself to the point of taking their ML in this one as they are 17-24 against left-handed starters and 10-19 within the division.

I’ll PASS and look to the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

The spread has a lot of momentum. Washington is 63-49 ATS on the season, which is crazy for a team 14 games under .500. The Nats are also 38-18 ATS on the road. The Phils are 17-34 on the RL at home. These same starters faced off on July 2, and the Nats won 5-4.

Take the NATIONALS +1.5 (-105) as my favorite bet in the game.

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Over/Under

The Nats have been winning via run prevention. Over the last 6-game stretch, they allowed 3 or fewer runs 5 times and won them all. They are also 2-8 O/U over the last 10, and the Phils are 6-4. The Over is 6-3-1 O/U over the last 10 between the teams, but it has been back-and-forth this season at 3-2-1.

There were 9 runs the last time these pitchers met, and I’m going to LEAN UNDER 9.5 (+100).

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (36-72) face the Philadelphia Phillies (58-48) Saturday in the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 8-2

Washington has lost 3 games in a row and 7 of 10 as its nightmare season continues. RHP Josiah Gray was pounded for 4 homers as the Phillies rolled 7-2 Friday. Oddly enough, the Nats have more wins on the road this season at 19-32 as opposed to 17-40 at home. The key for them is getting to 5 runs as they’re 25-6 when they do.

The Phils got 8 strong innings from RHP Kyle Gibson Friday and have a rested bullpen. They are 8-2 over the last 10 games and have beaten up on the Nats at the same rate this year. Philadelphia is just 15-19 against the rest of the division. 1B Rhys Hoskins is 13-for-36 (.361) with 3 homers and 6 RBIs the last 10 games.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Corbin (4-15, 6.57 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.77 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 109 2/3 IP.

  • Last 5 starts: 10.29 ERA and has allowed at least 4 ER in each outing.
  • Road: 1-8, 8.43 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and 7.9 K/9.

Suarez (7-5, 3.60 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last 3 starts: 0.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.
  • Struggles at home; 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.56 WHIP vs. 6-1, 2.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on road.

Nationals at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Phillies -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+100) | Phillies -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 6, Phillies 5

Money line

Corbin is having one of the worst seasons of any starter in recent memory. One might think that he’s 33 and washed up, but his velocity is the same it has been the last 5 years. His walk rate is high but the same as it was in 2019 with a 3.25 ERA. However, he has been severely unlucky with a .381 BABIP, which is the highest among starters with at least25 innings pitched.

Now that the trade deadline has passed, and the team isn’t trying to give him away, maybe he can settle in. Suarez isn’t good at home. This is a game the Phils could easily overlook. Give me the NATIONALS (+205) for a QUARTER UNIT.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Nats are 2-8 against the Phillies this season, but they have covered the run line in 5 of the 10 meetings and lost two more by exactly 2 runs. It has been competitive, and while OF Juan Soto and 1B Josh Bell are gone the Nats have still scored 16 runs in 4 games since the deadline. That’s 1 short of the aforementioned magic number of 5 runs. Take the NATIONALS +1.5 (+100).

Over/Under

The Over is probably the best and safest bet on this game with a starter whose ERA is 6.57 and a starter that tanks at home. The first 2 games of this series were a push at 9 runs, and the number has fallen to 8.5. Take the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a FULL UNIT.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (36-71) and Philadelphia Phillies (57-48) meet Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET to continue a 4-game NL East series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 7-2. The Phillies took Friday’s series opener 5-4 in a rain-shortened 5-inning affair.

The Nationals batted just .163 with runners in scoring position over their previous 7 games before they were 4-of-10 in such situations Thursday as they collected 11 hits in 5 frames. However, Philadelphia hit a couple of key home runs and had a 4-run 3rd inning in earning its third 1-run victory over Washington.

The Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 games. Three of those 7 wins have been by 1-run margins. That’s a bit of a flip of the script for Philadelphia which is just 13-16 in 1-run games this season.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Gray (7-7, 4.59 ERA) has posted a 1.28 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 102 IP in 19 starts.

  • Owns a 3.86 ERA over 4 career starts against the Phillies.
  • Has notched a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last 5 starts.
  • Has fared much better on the road with a 2.45 road ERA this season (3.09 career road ERA).

Gibson (6-4, 4.60 ERA) has clocked a 1.23 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 107 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Last pitched on July 27 as he missed his scheduled start Tuesday while on the bereavement list.
  • Has allowed a .743 OPS overall in his career and a slightly worse .780 OPS when starting on 6-plus days of rest.
  • Owns an 8.79 ERA over his last 3 home starts.

Nationals at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:08 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-125) | Phillies -1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 4, Phillies 3

Money line

Gray has pitched against tough competition of late and has been hurt by some inopportune home runs. His extreme fly-ball stuff makes for plenty of risk on a warm, humid, breeze-blowing-out night in Philadelphia.

However, that risk is adequately rewarded for a hurler who has fared well against these Phillies, a club swung around to its lesser platoon splits against righties.

TAKE WASHINGTON (+160).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS: not enough value in the outlay for the Washington side.

Over/Under

There is some baked-in Under edge in the batting-versus-expected numbers, and Gray adds to that. Two rested bullpens also come along for the ride.

BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (+100) on a partial-unit play.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Washington Nationals (36-70) and Philadelphia Phillies (56-48) meet Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 4-game NL East series at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 6-2

The Nationals are on the road after a 2-4 home stand. Washington has leveled off a bit since going 2-17 from June 29-July 23. The last-place club in the NL East is 5-5 over its last 10 games.

The Phillies are back at home after a 5-1 road trip against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia is 35-19 (.648) with a 3.62 ERA since June 1. The Phils are 14-2 against Washington since July 29 last season.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Paolo Espino vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard

Espino (0-3, 3.78 ERA) has appeared in 29 games (9 starts) this season. He owns a 1.25 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 66 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: allowed 4 R on 7 H and 1 BB in 4 2/3 IP Saturday vs. St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 26 IP across his last 6 games.
  • Owns a 6.65 ERA across his last 5 starts vs. Philadelphia.
  • Current Phillies bats own an aggregate .802 OPS against him.

Syndergaard (5-8, 3.83 ERA) is tabbed for his 16th start of the season. The new Philly hurler owns a 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 80 IP.

  • Was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels just before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
  • Has posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 21 2/3 IP over his last 4 starts.
  • Has not pitched since July 25 at the Kansas City Royals.

Nationals at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Phillies -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Phillies -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Nationals 4

Money line

PASS: no value here.

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Run line/Against the spread

Espino is a fly-ball pitcher, and especially on a hot, humid-breeze-blowing-out night at Citizens, that spells an advantage for a Philadelphia attack that hits fly-ballers well.

The Syndergaard rest is a wildcard facet to this one, but the veteran righty has fared well on long rest throughout most of his career. An upgraded Philadelphia bullpen looks to be in decent shape heading into this contest.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

As bad as Washington has been, the club’s offense has been about average in road games (.700 OPS, 16th MLB).

Both starting pitchers have surface numbers buoyed by generous rates around the margins.

Consider a play on the Over 8.5 if the price gets to -125 or better, but PASS for now.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (46-54) continue their four-game series with the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies (50-50) Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington evened the series with a 6-4 win Tuesday after Philadelphia won Monday’s series opener 6-5.

Season series: Tied 5-5.

LHP Patrick Corbin is Washington’s projected starter. He is 6-9 with a 5.71 ERA (104 IP, 66 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Baltimore Orioles Friday.
  • Corbin beat Philly May 13 with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Washington’s 5-1 home win.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 2.93 FIP with a .250 batting average (BA), .301 wOBA, .316 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.4 K% and 86.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 197 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 21st start for the Phillies. He is 8-5 with a 2.37 ERA (132 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 8 K against the Atlanta Braves Friday.
  • Wheeler is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 19 H, 4 BB and 19 K in three starts against Washington this season.
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster: 3.93 FIP with a .290 BA, .338 wOBA, .414 xSLG,  21.2 K% and 86.3 mph EV across 212 PA.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Phillies -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Nationals 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

I’m going to “fade the market” and slightly “LEAN” to the NATIONALS (+180) for a tiny wager since I like Washington’s run line so much so that I’ll sprinkle on the underdog’s money line.

According to Pregame.com, close to 90% of the cash is on the Phillies, which has steamed them up from the opening line of -175.

According to FanGraphs, Corbin’s highest game score of the season was his May 13 start against the Phillies where he had his best FIP (0.58), as well as his best swinging-strike percentage (17.6%) and hard-contact rate (17.6%).

Furthermore, most of Corbin’s pitching peripherals against active Phillies batters are better than Wheeler’s vs. current Nationals hitters and both have a large sample size in their head-to-head splits.

While Philly’s lineup is top-10 against left-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA, the Phillies are 24th in hard-contact rate vs. lefties but benefit the best BABIP in the majors (.324) in the split.

Finally, if Wheeler can’t go deep in Wednesday’s game then Washington will have its cracks at a Philly bullpen 19th in xFIP, 21st in SIERA, 26th in K-BB% and 25th in HR/9 in the second half.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the NATIONALS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of Washington’s money line based on all of the previous analysis and because of the value in the run-and-a-half worth of insurance.

Also, Philly is just 10-22 ATS as a home favorite with a minus-1.6 run line margin and three of the last six head-to-head meetings were decided by a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8 (-110) for 1 unit because Washington has played to the highest rate of Unders in division games (12-24-2 O/U against NL East opponents) and Philly isn’t far behind with a 23-28-1 O/U record in divisional games.

In addition, the Under cashed in five of Wheeler’s last six starts against NL East competition and in five of his last six home starts. The Nationals went Under the total in five of Corbin’s last six starts.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (45-54) and Philadelphia Phillies (50-49) play the second game of a four-game set Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Erick Fedde is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 4-7 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 72 innings across 15 starts.

Fedde was tremendous last time out against the Miami Marlins allowing one unearned run, four hits and a walk with four strikeouts across six innings in a no-decision Wednesday.

LHP Matt Moore is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 42 IP spanning 8 starts and 6 relief appearances.

Moore was torched for six earned runs, six hits and three walks across six innings in a loss against the Atlanta Braves last Thursday.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Nationals 5

Money line (ML)

The PHILLIES (-125) are worth a small-unit play in this home game against the Nationals (+105), but it will be a nail-biter with plenty of lead changes and ugly pitching.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

NATIONALS +1.5 (-185) is a little on the expensive side, but it’s difficult to back the Phillies -1.5 (+150) with the erratic Moore on the hill for the home side. If you want a little insurance on the visitors, and don’t care for them straight up, play them on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 9.5 (-110) is the best play on the board here. Fedde and Moore have each been very giving, and you can expect the ball to be flying out of the yard. Plus, the wind will aid shots to the right-center field power alley with breezes at 6-9 mph.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (45-53) and Philadelphia Phillies (49-49) begin a four-game series Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 4-4

Washington enters on a four-game slide after getting swept in three at the Baltimore Orioles. Philly owns a one-game win streak following a four-game split at home against the Atlanta Braves.

Nationals RHP Joe Ross is expected to be activated off the injured list for Monday’s start. Ross, who landed on the IL July 8 with right elbow inflammation, is 5-8 with a 4.02 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 11 K in 5-1 home defeat to the Los Angeles Dodgers July 4
  • Career vs. Phillies: 2-1, 2.65 ERA (34 IP, 10 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances

RHP Spencer Howard is slated to start for the Phillies. He is 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 6.2 BB/9 in 10 games, including 6 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-5 loss at New York Yankees Wednesday
  • As starter in 2021: 0-2, 3.86 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 6 outings
  • Career vs. Nationals: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 2 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

Back the PHILLIES (-115) to WIN 1 UNIT.

Philadelphia is decent at home this season at 29-19, while the Nationals are 18-28 on the road.

This will be the second time Howard and Ross face off this season. In the first meeting, the Phillies won at home 5-2 June 5.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

AVOID. Neither club is worthy of a run line bet.

Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games and is 23-24 ATS at home.

Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 and is 20-26 ATS on the road.

If you’re looking for a trend, the Phillies are 6-2 ATS in the eight head-to-head meetings.

ATS records: Nationals 43-55 | Phillies 48-49

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 9.5 (-115) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Nationals own the majors’ best Under record at 59-35-4 with a 25-18-3 Under mark on the road.

The Phillies have cashed more Over tickets, going 51-46-1 O/U overall but just 24-23-1 at home.

The Under is 6-2 in the eight head-to-head meetings, including the 5-2 final when Ross and Howard faced off. Neither pitcher allowed an earned run in that contest.

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
SINCE JULY 8 7-2 2-1 +5.325
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (34-36) and Philadelphia Phillies (34-36) play the finale of a two-game set Wednesday with a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Erick Fedde is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 4-4 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 IP over 10 starts.

Fedde has two wins and a no-decision in his last three starts, taking his most recent loss four starts back on May 11. Unfortunately, that loss came against these same Phillies when he allowed 3 ER, 5 H and 3 BB in just 5 IP.

RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 in 52 2/3 IP over 10 starts and 4 relief appearances.

Velasquez coughed up 4 R(3 ER) on 4 H and 4 BB over 4 IP in a loss at San Francisco Friday and he hasn’t won in four starts since May 25 in Miami. He allowed 3 ER, 4 H and 1 BB with 4 K over 4 IP in a no-decision against the Nats June 6.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Nationals at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Nationals 5, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

NATIONALS (-105) are the play in the finale of this quick, testy set. We saw fireworks on Tuesday involving Phillies manager Joe Girardi and Nationals hurler Max Scherzer during a requested check for a foreign substance – the third time in the game Scherzer had been checked. It will be interesting to see if it spills over into Wednesday.

Washington won Tuesday’s game by a 3-2 count, and Philadelphia is now just 2-5 across their last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Nats are red-hot, winners of three in a row and eight of their last nine. Fedde has been electric lately too, so back the visitors.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The NATIONALS -1.5 (+150) are worth a roll of the dice at this good price. While Tuesday’s win was just a one-run game, Washington has won by two or more runs in four of their past six victories.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 9 (-115) is the lean here. It cashed Tuesday with a combined total of five runs, and the Under is 5-1 across the last six for the Nats.

The Under is also 6-2 across the past eight for Philadelphia. More importantly, the Under has hit in six of the seven meetings between these teams this season.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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