Updated NCAA Men’s Bracketology: Where does Texas fall?

A blowout loss at home against a team not expected to be in the March Madness festivities has really hurt Texas’ chances of a bid.

The Texas Longhorns were one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 over a five-game stretch where they defeated two top 25 teams. The streak also included three-straight victories by 10+ points over opponents who have been projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The NET ratings of the those three were West Virginia (17), Texas Tech (22) and Oklahoma (44).

The NET ranking explained: The NCAA Evaluation Tool, which will be known as the NET, relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses.

This tool replaced the RPI in the NCAA Tournament selection process.

The Longhorns current ranking is 68, after dropping from 57 on the heels of a 81-59 loss to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys jumped from 71 to 61 following the game. Prior to this loss, Texas was listed as the last four in on most Bracketology projections. However now the Longhorns find themselves between a rock and a hard place.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology with the loss to the Cowboys, putting Texas on the bubble as one of the last four in. In terms of the bubble watch, the Longhorns are listed under the work to do category.

Shaka Smart’s team rose to a No. 11 seed in the mock brackets on the strength of five straight wins. What happens now that Texas has lost by 22 at home to Oklahoma State? What happens is that the Longhorns are going to be very nervous. A NET ranking that was in the high 50s could dip into the perilous 60s in the wake of a Quad 2 loss, and UT will start preparing its talking points accordingly. They’re good talking points — the road wins at Purdue, Texas Tech and Oklahoma — and they would be strengthened with a good performance at the Big 12 tournament.

The game against Texas Tech is now a must-win for Shaka Smart and company. A one and done performance in the conference tournament could very well be the nail in the coffin for both a tournament berth and the future of Smart in Texas.