The Cowboys have three scenarios for clinching the division this week, and it’s wholly possible their work will be done for them before they hit the field on Sunday night. On Thursday, they earned a spot in the playoffs by virtue of the San Francisco 49ers’ loss at the hand of the Tennessee Titans, but just because others can and have assisted Dallas it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be prepared to handle their own business.
The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) will host the Washington Football Team (6-8) on Sunday Night Football with the opportunity to give Cowboys fans a late Christmas gift. The Cowboys are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFL and have chance to clinch the divisional title with any of the following scenarios: a win/tie over Washington, a Philadelphia Eagles loss/tie or a combination of 1.5 wins by LV, Jax, LAC, NE, MIN and Atlanta). All of those other contests happen earlier in the day on Sunday, but things still could come down to a divisional matchup.
The Cowboys are riding a three-game-in-three-week road winning streak, the first time they’ve accomplished this feat since 1969. They boast the No. 1 defense in the league on third-down conversions allowed (31.9%) and are tied for No.1 in takeaways with 31 on the season.
The Football Team is in the midst of a five-game stretch of NFC East opponents. They’ve lost the last two games to Dallas and Philadelphia and their playoff odds are getting increasingly smaller with each defeat. Some good news for WFT is that quarterback Taylor Heinicke was removed from COVID protocol and will be eligible to play Sunday Night.
Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability. Let’s review this week’s edition to see which team will get presents and which will get coal.