We are down to four games left in the Texas Longhorns 2020 campaign.
Texas has four matchups left and they will determine if it is playing for a Big 12 Championship. The team could go 3-1 over that stretch and possibly play for the conference title, but it would likely need help to get in. Winning out seems like the only option at this point. And that could be the difference between Tom Herman returning in 2021 or looking for a new gig.
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With four games left, will the Longhorns be favored in each of those game? Looking at the win probability and Football Power Index from ESPN, it appears as though they will be. Texas should be in a good spot moving forward as long as it doesn’t falter. Easier said than done as the Longhorns have been guilty of tripping themselves up.
| Date | Opponent | FPI Rank | FPI | Win Probability |
| Nov. 7 | West Virginia | 32 | 7.9 | 81.6 |
| Nov. 21 | Kansas | 118 | -14.8 | 97.4 |
| Nov. 27 | Iowa State | 25 | 10.9 | 74.5 |
| Dec. 5 | Kansas State | 39 | 6.3 | 74.3 |
Despite the fact the Longhorns have favorable win probabilities in each remaining game this year, the computers don’t have them winning out. While they have the second-best chances according to FPI, their projected record is 7-3.
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Not only do the Longhorns have the second-best chances to win out, but also win the Big 12 Conference. Based on the numbers, the likely matchup would be a rematch of the Red River Shootout against the Oklahoma Sooners. One could bet quarterback Sam Ehlinger would love one final shot at them.
The full breakdown from ESPN:
| Team | FPI | W-L Projection | Win out | Win Big 12 |
| Oklahoma | 18.9 | 7-3 | 27.7% | 31.7% |
| Texas | 16.9 | 7-3 | 25.8% | 29.6% |
| Oklahoma State | 13.8 | 7-3 | 3.1% | 16.6% |
| Iowa State | 10.9 | 6-4 | 2.4% | 14.5% |
| Texas Christian | 10.3 | 5-4 | 16.7% | 0.6% |
| West Virginia | 7.9 | 5-5 | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| Baylor | 7.1 | 3-6 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kansas State | 6.3 | 5-5 | 0.3% | 5.2% |
| Texas Tech | -1.1 | 3-7 | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kansas | -14.8 | 0-10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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