Tag: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds predictions pick betting line spread

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The Washington Nationals (55-67) and Philadelphia Phillies (71-50) play the 2nd game of their 4-game series Friday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 6-1

Nationals starter Mitchell Parker had the worst outing of his young career in Thursday’s 13-3 loss. He lasted just 3 innings and allowed 9 ER on 10 hits. All of Washington’s offense came from C Keibert Ruiz who hit 2 HRs. The Nationals have been outscored by the Phillies 43-18 over their 7 games.

The Phillies got home runs from RF Nick Castellanos, 1B Weston Wilson, and 3B Alec Bohm while SS Trea Turner went 3-for-5 with a double, 2 RBIs, and 2 runs scored. RHP Zack Wheeler earned his 12th victory.

Nationals at Phillies projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Corbin (2-12, 5.98 ERA) makes his 25th career start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 131 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 5-4 victory against the Los Angeles Angels Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 1-7, 6.68 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 51 R (47 ER), 1.72 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 12 starts
• Last start vs Phillies: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-0 road victory on April 5
• Is 6-10 with a 4.81 ERA in 21 starts vs. Phillies

Nola (11-6, 3.60 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 147 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 11-1 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 5-3, 3.41 ERA (74 IP, 30 R (28 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 12 starts
• 2024 vs. Nationals: 2-0, 1.42 (12 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 2 starts
• Is 9-8 with a 3.70 ERA in 31 career starts vs. Nationals

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Phillies -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Nationals +1.5 (+105) | Phillies -1.5 (-126)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 8, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

You can’t bet nearly 3 units to win back 1. Save your wager for the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-128).

I have a simple rule when betting baseball, always bet against Patrick Corbin. He stinks; just look at his numbers across the board. He has gotten progressively worst since the Nationals World Series run back in 2017. Corbin is 1-7 since 2021 against the Phillies.

Philadelphia has beaten the Nationals 6 of their 7 times this season.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 9 (-115).

I’m betting the Over because Corbin is allowing 5.5 runs per game over his last 4 starts. He has also allowed 4.4 runs per game in his last 5 starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia has also been Over the total in 4 of their last 5 games.

In their last 3 meetings, the Phillies-Nationals are 2-0-1 against the Over.

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The Washington Nationals (55-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (70-50) open a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-1

The Nationals split a 2-game set at the Baltimore Orioles, wrapping up the series with a 4-1 loss as +154 underdogs Wednesday with the Under (9) hitting. Washington is 4th in the NL East, 15½ games back of the division-leading Phillies, and has a less than 0.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com.

The Phillies also split a midweek 2-game series. After losing 5-0 as -200 favorites in the Tuesday opener, Philadelphia won 9-5 as a -157 favorite Wednesday as the Over (8.5) cashed. The Phillies have a 6-game lead over the 2nd-place Atlanta Braves in the NL East and are -800 at BetMGM Sportsbook to win the division.

Nationals at Phillies projected starters

LHP Mitchell Parker vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Parker (6-6, 3.83 ERA) makes his 22nd start. The rookie has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 112 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER (2 R), 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home victory in 10 innings vs. Los Angeles Angels Friday
• 2024 road stats: 2-4, 4.78 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 11 starts
• Has never faced Phillies

Wheeler (11-5, 2.78 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 142 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-2 setback at Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
• 2024 home stats: 7-3, 2.48 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 12 starts
• 2024 vs. Nationals: 1-0, 1 home start (May 17), 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-2 win
• Career vs. Nationals: 13-15, 4.59 ERA (196 IP, 100 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 33 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Phillies -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+110) | Phillies -1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 2

Moneyline

The Phillies (-300) are 7-2 in Wheeler’s last 9 home starts, but it’s almost impossible to stay profitable in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

Seven of Wheeler’s last 9 home starts have resulted in multi-run wins for Philadephia. Washington is just 8-13 straight up over its last 21 games, and its last 6 losses have been by 2 or more runs.

Parker has allowed 3 or more ER in 6 of his last 9 road starts, while Wheeler is the 2nd-favorite behind Braves SP Chris Sale to win the NL Cy Young (+200 at BetMGM Sportsbook). The pitching advantage for Philadelphia should be too overwhelming for the Nationals to keep it close.

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-135).

Over/Under

The Under is 30-23-3 (56.6%) this season when the Phillies are home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.

Wheeler has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 8 of his last 9 home starts. He should bounce back after a rough home outing (5 IP, 7 ER) against the New York Yankees July 29. The risk here is that the Phillies are capable of scoring enough runs against Parker to do most of the heavy lifting, but they’ve put up 5 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games.

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

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The Washington Nationals (20-22) and Philadelphia Phillies (31-14) begin a 3-game series Friday with 1st pitch from Citizens Bank Park slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Nationals dropped their series finale against the Chicago White Sox 2-0 on Wednesday. They were shut out the final 2-games of this series in Chicago against a team that allows nearly 5 runs per game. Washington got a solid starting performance from LHP Patrick Corbin, who allowed 2 ER over 5 2/3 IP. The Nats have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Philadelphia had its 3-game win streak snapped by the New York Mets on Thursday, 6-5 in 11 innings. 2B Bryson Stott pushed the game to extra innings with a game tying RBI single in the bottom of the 9th. Phillies closer LHP Jose Alvarado took the loss after allowing an RBI single to DH J.D. Martinez, who scored the winning run on a wild pitch. The Phillies are 1-1 during their current 9-game homestand.

Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Jake Irvin vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Irvin (2-3, 3.55 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 loss at the Boston Red Sox Saturday
• Last start vs Phillies: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 5-2 loss at home on April 6

Wheeler (4-3, 2.53 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 53 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 7-6 road loss against the Miami Marlins Sunday
• 2023 vs. Nationals: 2-1, 7.48 ERA, 21 2/3 IP, 29 H, 18 ER, 2 BB, 20 K in 4 starts

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Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday 11:51 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Phillies -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+104) | Phillies -1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 1

Moneyline.

PASS.

The Nationals are struggling at the plate and I see that continuing on Friday night in Philadelphia against Wheeler. I like the Phillies (-270), but I’m not going to bet nearly 3 units to win 1 back. I’ll save my wager for the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-125).

Philadelphia has the best record in baseball and for good reason, they are a really good team. Their lineup is stacked top to bottom and they are 20-6 against right-handed pitching this season. They already got a good look at Irvin and put up 4 ER against him.

The Nationals have scored 0 runs in their last 19 innings. Prior to his struggles against the Marlins in his last start, Wheeler had allowed just 1 ER over his 4 previous starts (25 1/3 IP).

The Phillies run differential on the season is +70, so they aren’t just beating teams, they are throttling them. Philadelphia has won 15 of their last 20 games.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

I really wanted to like the Over in this game since the Phillies have been Over in 6 of their last 7 games, but the Nationals lineup just has no pop. They have been Under in 5 of their last 6 games and were shut out in their last 2 games by a team with the 2nd-worst record in baseball. The last 4 meetings between these 2 teams the Under cashed.

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The Washington Nationals (49-63) and the Philadelphia Phillies (61-51) open a 4-game series Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch in Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 3-3

These teams were expected to open the 4-game set Monday, but Mother Nature had other plans. Monday’s postponed game is being made up as part of a doubleheader Tuesday.

Washington played with a little ‘Natitude’ over the weekend, sweeping a 3-game set from the Cincinnati Reds. The Nats have won 5 of the past 6 games overall, but Washington is still 14 games under .500 overall. The Under has cashed in 4 straight, and 6 of the past 7 outings.

Philadelphia took 2 of 3 games from the suddenly pesky Kansas City Royals at home over the weekend, and the Phillies are 5-2 across the past 7 games overall. Totally opposite of the Nats, the Over has cashed in 3 in a row, and 4 of the past 5 games for the Phils.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Williams (5-6, 4.72 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 108 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 5-2 road loss vs. New York Mets on July 30
• 2023 road splits: 3-3, 5.02 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 32 ER – 14 HR), .305 opponent batting average (OBA) in 12 starts

Wheeler (8-5, 3.71 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 131 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 9-8 road loss in 12 innings vs. the Miami Marlins Wednesday
• 2023 home splits: 2-2, 4.03 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 27 ER – 7 HR), .226 OBA in 10 starts

Nationals at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Phillies -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+115) | Phillies -1.5 (-140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Nationals 4

Moneyline

The Phillies (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s just way too much risk for not enough reward.

Plus, Philadelphia has had a difficult time with the Nationals (+220) this season, and Washington is playing pretty good ball lately, too.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

If things go according to plan, the PHILLIES -1.5 (-140) should be able to cover the run line in Game 1.

Williams has been very giving this season, coughing up 14 homers in 57 1/3 IP across 12 road outings. That’s bad news when playing in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park. Expect the Philadelphia offense to come alive, especially with a wind blowing from left field to right field at 13-16 mph.

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Over/Under

OVER 9 (+100) is the lean, and remember the wind situation. Left-handed batters could see some wind-aided homers against the pitchers, especially Williams.

The Over is 6-2-1 in the past 9 meetings in this series and is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 games overall.

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