It’s projection season, and the Oklahoma Sooners are the favorites in the Big 12 several months from the start of the 2022 regular season. According to ESPN’s SP+ ratings (ESPN+), the Sooners look like one of the best teams in the country.
SP+ considers returning production, recent recruiting results, and recent history of success. With departures for the NFL and through the transfer portal, the Sooners were No. 71 in returning production in February.
Their recruiting has been excellent in the last five years, regularly finishing with top 15 classes. While they lost quite a few of those recent signees to the transfer portal, Brent Venables and his staff did an excellent job of retooling their roster through the portal to account for the losses on the roster. That’s part of why the Sooners are still so highly thought of.
And despite not winning the Big 12 in 2022, the Sooners still finished the season with 11 wins, the seventh time they accomplished such a feat in the last nine seasons. They had nine wins during the COVID-19 season. Though they were never able to break through to a national championship game, the Sooners have been one of the most successful teams in the country over the last decade.
Heading into 2022, the Sooners’ strength of schedule should allow for them to stack up quite a few wins. According to the FPI, the Sooners’ strength of schedule ranked No. 42 in the country and No. 8 in the Big 12. 247Sports ranked it as the sixth easiest among 2022 contenders.
Some of that can be reflected in their schedule for 2022 relative to ESPN’s SP+ ratings. They have three opponents on their schedule that rank outside the top 100 in SP+; Kansas, UTEP, and Kent State. The highest-ranked team on the schedule is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Though they won just three games in 2021, they’re a team that many think highly of heading into 2022 (for some reason).
The highest-ranked Big 12 team is the Texas Longhorns. With their offense, Texas should be really good in 2022. If they can improve upon one of the worst defenses in the country from 2021, they’ll be a contender in the Big 12 as long as Quinn Ewers lives up to the hype.
Defending Big 12 champion Baylor comes in at No. 40, the fifth highest-rated team in the Big 12. They lost a lot of talent to the NFL, like the Sooners did, but seem like a team due for a bit of regression after going from two wins to Big 12 champs in one season.
Taking a look out west, the USC Trojans look like a team that will depend heavily on their offense. They rank 24th in offensive SP+ and 84th in defensive SP+. While it will take time for Riley and the Trojans to rebuild a four-win team from 2021, some of the same problems may persist for Oklahoma’s former head coach.
Let’s take a look at how Oklahoma’s 2022 opponents (and USC) rank in ESPN’s SP+ ratings.