Tom Brady should head to the city where one of his greatest rivals spent most of his career.
Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots have been the one constant in this crazy league over the past 20 years and, now, even that might be coming to an end this offseason. As you’ve probably heard by now, the final two years of Brady’s contract will void (by design) on the final day of the NFL’s league year and, thanks to a contract he signed in August, the Patriots will be unable to slap the franchise tag on him.
So Brady will be a free agent. For the first time in two decades, we’ll enter an offseason without a clue as to where he’ll be playing in the fall. And he’s not the only stalwart on the Pats offense that could be headed out of town. Longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has accepted several interviews for head coaching gigs, according to reports.
The Patriots offense could look very different when the 2020 season kicks off, and if you’ve watched this team try to move the ball over the last two months, you realize that’s a good thing. Especially after that painful performance in the Pats’ 20-13 playoff loss to the Titans on Saturday. New England’s offense has broken and there are no obvious fixes. It’s time for a rebuild.
If Belichick does decide to run it back one more season, what would the contract offer to Brady even look like? You have to imagine that after years of giving the Pats a discount that the soon-to-be 43-year-old will be looking to cash in. He’s not going to take another modest deal just to play behind a declining offensive line and a group of receivers who either can’t get open or don’t know which routes to run — or maybe a little bit of both. I don’t know how excited Belichick would be for that either. He’s a notorious penny pincher who believes in getting rid of players a year too early rather than a year too late. You could make a rather convincing argument that he’s already waited too long to move on from Brady, who is coming off back-to-back seasons in which we’ve seen a decline. It’s going to be awfully hard to pay Brady while also having enough money left over to address the personnel issues plaguing this offense.
There’s just one little issue: If Brady does move on or decides to retire (which he says is unlikely), the Pats will be stuck with a $13.5 million cap charge. That’s an awful lot of money to pay for a washed-up quarterback who isn’t even on the roster. When New England gave Brady the strange extension that gave him a raise while also lowering his cap hit, it was with the assumption that he’d be back on the roster in 2020. Then the season went as badly as we can reasonably expect a Patriots season to go and Brady was a part of the problem, so now what?
If I’m Belichick (who is also getting up there in age and could just decide to call it a career at any time), I’d just take the L on that $13.5 million and blow this thing up. He’s undoubtedly looked around the league and seen where the future of the quarterback position is headed. Dual-threat QBs who force defenses to account for an 11th player in the run game put tremendous stress on a defense. If you don’t have one, you’re playing 10-on-11 on nearly half the plays. Belichick knows that. Quarterbacks who can move have given him fits over the years. The Pats’ first three losses of the 2019 season were against Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. He’s never beaten Cam Newton. Colin Kaepernick once put up 41 points on his defense in Foxborough. I’m just speculating here, but it’s hard not to believe that Belichick wants in on this mobile quarterback thing.
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What about Brady? We’ve already covered why he wouldn’t want to come back to New England without a crazy offer. But where would he want to go? And which team would actually want him? There aren’t a lot of teams around the league that are (1) built to win now and (2) in need of a quarterback who won’t be around for more than a couple years.
On Sunday night, NBC Sports’ Cris Collinsworth suggested a move to the Chargers, who will likely move on from Philip Rivers in the offseason. I’m not sure how much sense that makes for either party. Is Brady really an upgrade over Rivers at this point? The numbers say no. And is that Chargers line, which has done a terrible job of protecting the quarterback, really an upgrade over what Brady was working behind in New England this season? Also a no.
The number of teams looking for a franchise quarterback is actually pretty small. The number of teams looking for one who could retire at any moment is even smaller. The Raiders might be in that boat, but will Brady want to play for Jon Gruden and with one of the league’s worst defenses? Probably not. The Bears should be in the market for a QB but are apparently content with Mitch Trubisky for some reason. Cap space is also an issue in Chicago, as it is in Jacksonville. The Bucs are another team that could be looking for a new QB but Brady is a terrible fit for Bruce Arians’ vertical passing scheme.
That leaves one team that checks all the boxes: That’s the Indianapolis Colts. They have cap space, a roster that’s ready to compete, a solid defense, a good coaching staff and they play in a winnable division. Jacoby Brissett has a year left on his contract, but the Colts have enough cap space to eat it. A trade would also be an option and one that would save Indy about $10 million in cap space.
Brady could get everything he’s likely looking for: A big payday, a dominant offensive line, a solid receiving corps and a chance to win. For a competitor like Brady, the chance to win in a place where one of his greatest rivals, Peyton Manning, created his legacy has to be appealing. He’d also have an opportunity to stick it to Belichick if their paths ever crossed in the AFC playoffs.
How jumping to one of the Patriots’ rivals would affect Brady’s legacy is unclear, but it’s going to be hard to tarnish those six rings he’s helped bring back to New England. And we’ve seen so many great quarterbacks make late-career moves. Manning left Indianapolis, Montana left San Francisco and Favre left Green Bay. Legacy shouldn’t be an issue.
A breakup makes sense for both Brady and New England. The Patriots offense need a fresh start. Brady needs a better supporting cast. Neither is going to get what it needs without splitting up.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7_QxZpozAo]
