Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox odds predictions pick betting line spread

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Blue Jays (62-50) and Boston Red Sox (57-53) wrap up a 3-game set Sunday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 7-2

The Blue Jays won 5-4 as -101 underdogs in the 2nd game of the series Saturday. Toronto has won 3 of its last 4 contests and is 3rd in the AL East, 7½ games back of the division-leading Baltimore Orioles.

The Red Sox lost on a double play when C Connor Wong flew out to left-center field and C Reese McGuire was doubled up at 2nd base. Boston has lost 3 straight contests and is last in the division, 11½ games behind Baltimore.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. LHP Brennan Bernardino

Bassitt (10-6, 4.00 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 132 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Orioles Monday
2023 road stats: 4-4, 5.63 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 39 ER) in 12 starts
Career vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 1 start, a 3-2 road win with Oakland Athletics May 11, 2021

Bernardino (1-1, 2.72 ERA) makes his 6th start and 34th appearance. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 36 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K as opener in 4-3 loss in 11 innings at San Francisco Giants last Sunday
2023 home stats: 1-1, 2.75 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 6 ER) in 3 starts and 15 relief appearances
Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-1, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER) in 4 relief appearances – Most recent: Loss, 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K in Saturday’s loss

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-165) | Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

The Red Sox should avoid the sweep Sunday after dropping 2 straight vs. the Blue Jays. Boston has won 7 of 9 meetings this season vs. Toronto and the Blue Jays have lost in back-to-back games when Bassitt is starting. Toronto is just 10-23 in divisional games this season and it’s unlikely that it will sweep Boston Sunday.

BET RED SOX (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

The Blue Jays are 17-11 on the run line as road underdogs. Toronto +1.5 (-165) should hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Boston ML is the better play.

PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.

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Over/Under

The Under has hit in 9 of Toronto’s last 10 games and is 35-21-5 when the Blue Jays are coming off a win.

The Under has also hit in 8 of Boston’s last 11 games and should cash again Sunday in this divisional matchup.

BET UNDER 10 (-105).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Blue Jays (61-50) and Boston Red Sox (57-52) play Game 2 of their 3-game series in Beantown Saturday. First pitch from Fenway Park is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET (FOX Sports 1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 7-1

The Blue Jays began a 7-game road trip in Boston Friday night with a 7-3 win over the Red Sox. That was their 1st victory over Boston in 8 games this season, but 4 have been 1-run games. Toronto is 31-26 away from Rogers Centre this season.

Friday’s defeat was Boston’s first to the Jays this year. Despite the dominant head-to-head record, they have only outscored Toronto 52-46 on the season. The Red Sox are 16-12 against AL East foes this season.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP John Schreiber

Berrios (8-7, 3.31 ERA) will make his 23rd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 130 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Los Angeles Angels Sunday
2023 away splits: 4-3, 2.72 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 18 ER), .233 OBA in 10 starts
2023 vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 7.14 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 9 ER) in 2 starts – Most recent: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 5-0 home loss June 30

Schreiber (1-1, 3.74 ERA) will make his 2nd start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 21 2/3 innings

Last outing: 1 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K vs. Mariners Wednesday; threw 35 pitches in the relief outing
2023 home splits: 1-0, 2.31 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 3 ER), .311 OBA in 13 appearances

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 4

Moneyline

BET BLUE JAYS (+105).

I really like the Blue Jays (+105) to win this game. I know Berrios hasn’t been great against the Red Sox this season, but he has only allowed a total of 2 earned runs in his last 2 road starts against the Dodgers and White Sox.

Toronto’s win Friday night should give them a confidence boost after starting the season 0-7 against the Red Sox.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID.

I’m going to stay away from both run lines in this one. I hate the juice you are paying on the Blue Jays getting the run-and-a-half. I also don’t think the Red Sox will win by 2 because 4 of their games against the Blue Jays have been 1-run games.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 9.5 (-110).

In their 8 games this season against each other, they have gone Over this total in 6 of them. One of the two other games got to 9, so there is not exactly a lot of good pitching going on in these matchups.

Boston is 3rd in the MLB in runs scored per game at home at 5.59, and the Blue Jays score nearly 5 runs per game on the road (4.88).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Blue Jays (60-50) and Boston Red Sox (57-51) open up a 3-game set Friday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 7-0

The Blue Jays lost 6-1 as -169 home favorites vs. the Baltimore Orioles Thursday. Toronto has lost 4 of its last 5 contests and is 3rd in the AL East, 7½ games back of the division-leading Orioles.

The Red Sox lost 6-3 as +111 underdogs at the Seattle Mariners Wednesday. Boston has also lost 4 of its last 5 contests and is 4th in the division, 9½ games behind Baltimore.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Alek Manoah vs. LHP James Paxton

Manoah (2-8, 5.87 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.79 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 76 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home win vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday
2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.92 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 8 starts
Career vs. Red Sox: 4-1, 1.71 ERA (42 IP, 8 ER) in 7 starts
2023 vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 5 IP, 5 R (2 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, an 8-3 road loss May 3

Paxton (6-2, 3.34 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 70 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-2 loss at San Francisco Giants Saturday
2023 home stats: 2-0, 2.25 ERA (28 IP, 7 ER) in 5 starts
Career vs. Blue Jays: 6-3, 3.98 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 28 ER) in 11 starts
2023 vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 5-0 road win June 30

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Red Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 2

Moneyline

Boston (-155) should improve to 8-0 on the season vs. Toronto. However, there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when the Red Sox should win by multiple runs.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox have beaten the Blue Jays by 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 meetings. The Blue Jays’ last 3 losses have been by multiple runs and they are a league-worst 9-22 on the run line in divisional matchups. Add a struggling Manoah to the mix and this game could get out of hand very quickly for Toronto.

BET RED SOX -1.5 (+120).

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Over/Under

The Under has hit in 7 of the Blue Jays’ last 8 games and they’re averaging just 2.67 runs over their last 3. While Manoah is having the worst season of his career, he has given up 4 or more earned runs in just 1 of his last 4 starts.

Paxton has been reliable this year, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in 11 of 13 starts, and should help the Under hit Friday at Fenway Park.

BET UNDER 10.5 (-110).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18-13) and Boston Red Sox (18-14) play the finale of a 4-game set at Fenway Park Thursday. First pitch is at 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-0

The Jays have lost 4 in a row after having their 6-game winning streak snapped. The Red Sox have beaten them 6-5, 7-6 and 8-3. Toronto was sloppy Wednesday, committing 4 errors and allowing 3 unearned runs to cross the plate. They are now 7 games back of Tampa in the division.

The Red Sox have won 5 straight and are 7-3 over the last 10. They have pulled within a half-game of Toronto for 3rd place in the NL East. C Connor Wong is hitting .588 (10-for-17) with 3 HRs, 2 doubles and 4 RBIs over the last 7 days.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Gausman (2-2, 2.33 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP.

Last start Saturday against Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 13 K
Has at least 11 K in 3 of last 4 starts
Last 5 GS vs. Red Sox: 2-0, 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39 K in 26 IP

Bello (0-1, 6.57 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.87 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 12 1/3 IP.

Last start Saturday against Cleveland Guardians: 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K
3 career GS vs. Toronto: 0-2, 7.62 ERA, 2.31 WHIP and 13 K in 13 IP

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Red Sox +145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (-105) | Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The Blue Jays are trying to avoid a sweep and have their best pitcher on the hill. Gausman has been great against Boston, and Bello has not fared well against Toronto. So the books have stacked the deck in their favor. It’s not totally out of bounds to take a -175 ML, but I’d rather inherit some minor risk in a parlay.

Take the BLUE JAYS ML + KEVIN GAUSMAN 5 K’s (-105). Gausman has 5+ K’s in each start this year and in 4 of his last 5 against Boston.

Run line/Against the spread

You’re going to pay for either side of the RL here. The Jays are 15-16 on the RL (9-10 road), and Boston is 18-14 (10-9 home). The first 2 games of the series were 1-run games.

It’s best to stay away here. PASS.

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Over/Under

It’s a chilly 47 degrees with an 8-mph breeze coming in from left-center field. That leans to the Under, but there are considerable Over trends. The Over is 7-0 in the Red Sox’s last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 4 games. The Over is 4-0 in Bello’s last 4 starts and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the teams in Boston. The Over is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings overall.

I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-105).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (67-55) take on the Boston Red Sox (60-64) Thursday in the finale game of a 3-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Blue Jays lead 12-3

The Blue Jays have won 6 of the last 7, including the first 2 games of this series. They have done it with the bats, averaging 5.4 runs per game during the stretch. The Jays are 18-12 in the last 30 and sit in the 2nd wild-card playoff spot.

The Red Sox continue to slide, having lost 5 of their 6 games. They are 7 games out of a wild-card spot and have gone just 12-18 in the last 30 games. Boston has had trouble within its division at 16-34.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Kutter Crawford

Gausman (9-9, 2.99 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 129 1/3 IP.

Road warrior: 1.65 ERA, 0.99 WHIP on the road vs. 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP at home
2022 vs. Boston: 4 starts; 3-0, 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 12.8 K/9

Crawford (3-5, 5.14 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP.

Allowed 3 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 4 K in 6 IP against Toronto July 23
Better at home: 4.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP vs. 6.27 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on road

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:28 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Blue Jays -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Red Sox +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: -110)

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Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 3

Money line

Part of me feels like Boston bucks trends Thursday and takes this game because they’ve dropped the first 2 at home, and they’re 3-12 against Toronto this year. At some point that has to even out, and maybe it does. However, Gausman has just been too good against them. Take the BLUE JAYS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox +1.5 (-110) is at a solid price, but the data just doesn’t support it. And RL wagers on a hunch aren’t always the best ideas. PASS.

Over/Under

The Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston. The Under is 4-0 in Gausman’s last 4 road starts with the total set between 7.0-8.5. The Under is 5-0 in the Blue Jays’ last 5 games with the total set between 7.0-8.5. Both teams have hit the Under in 3 of 4 games, and this feels like a tall number today. LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+110).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (66-55) took down the Boston Red Sox (60-63) on Tuesday and look to make it 2 in a row Wednesday night. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Blue Jays lead 11-3

The Jays have won 5 of their last 6 and currently hold 1 of the American League wild card spots. According to FanGraphs they now have a 94.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Boston has dropped 4 of their last 5 and their playoff hopes are fading fast.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Berrios (9-5, 5.39 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 128 2/3 IP.

He’s been very inconsistent throughout the season; held the New YorkYankees to 1 ER in 6 2/3 IP last time out, but in his previous 2 starts allowed 13 ER in 7 2/3 IP with just 2 strikeouts
Has faced Boston twice this season, surrendering 3 ER in 13 IP with a 10/2 K/BB
He’s struggled on the road, compiling a 6.82 ERA along with a 6.8 K/9 and 2/2 HR/9 in 12 starts

Bello (0-3, 8.47 ERA) makes his 6th appearance (4th start). He has a 2.29 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 17 IP.

Has been out a few weeks with a groin strain, but will be activated for the start Wednesday
Took the loss against Toronto July 24 with 9 H, 5 R, 2 BB and 2 K in 4 IP
He did miss a lot of bats in the minors this season, as he had a 12.1 K/9 in 96 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A.

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Blue Jays -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+102) | Red Sox +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 5

Money line

Toronto ranks 3rd in the league in runs per game on the road (4.97) and they have been hitting well lately, with 35 runs in their last 6 games. Bello has been shaky during his brief time in the majors and is coming off a lengthy layoff, so the Toronto offense is in another good spot. A small play on the BLUE JAYS -160 is the call.

Run line/Against the spread

The Blue Jays should put some runs on the board, but Berrios on the road doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence. It’s probably best to PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

The total has gone over in 10 of 12 road games that Berrios has started and both teams are likely to get the bats going in this contest. Invest in OVER 9.5 (-105) or for a better payout bump it up to 10.5 (+130).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (65-55) kick off a 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox (60-62) on Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Blue Jays lead 10-3

Toronto fell to the Yankees 4-2 on Sunday, putting an end to a 4-game winning streak.

Boston dropped 2 of 3 over the weekend against Baltimore. They are falling out of playoff contention, with a 12-17 record since the All-Star break.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Ross Stripling vs. RHP Josh Winckowski

Stripling (5-3, 2.93 ERA) makes his 25th appearance (17th start). He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 89 IP.

After spending 2 weeks on the IL he came back and allowed just 1 H in 6 1/3 shutout IP (0 BB, 7 K) against Baltimore Wednesday
Since jumping back into the rotation in early June, he has put up a 2.21 ERA in 11 starts with a 7.1 K/9 and just 3 HR allowed in 57 IP

Winckowski (5-6, 5.19 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 through 60 2/3 IP.

Has struggled to miss bats lately with just 10 K in 23 2/3 IP in his last 5 starts
Equaled a season-high with 6 ER allowed in his Thursday start, a loss against Pittsburgh with 7 H, 1 BB, 2K in 5 IP
His skills have been weak in 7 starts at home, where he owns a 5.94 ERA along with a 3.8 BB/9 and 4/1 K/9

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:16 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Blue Jays -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 4

Money line

Winckowski has gotten roughed up lately, with a 6.75 ERA, 2.3 HR/9, and 17/14 K/BB in his last 7 starts. The Toronto offense shouldn’t have much trouble getting to him on Tuesday and BLUE JAYS -145 is an excellent play.

Run line/Against the spread

Toronto has beaten up on Boston this season and they are 3rd in the league in runs per game on the road (4.90). Stripling and Winckowski are trending in opposite directions and the Boston starter has really struggled at home. Take the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+110), as they could win this one going away.

Over/Under

This sets up as a good spot for the Toronto bats to get going against a starting pitcher who hasn’t been good lately. On the other side, Stripling has had a lot of success since rejoining the rotation but has also had luck on his side (.256 BABIP, 4.9% HR/FB). We’ll lean slightly to the OVER 9.5 (-110).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (50-43) and Boston Red Sox (48-45) will open the 2nd half of their seasons and continue their playoff pushes Friday. First pitch from Fenway Park in this AL East matchup is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Blue Jays lead 7-3, but the Red Sox won their most recent meeting June 30.

The Blue Jays took 3 of 4 games from the Kansas City Royals before the All-Star break and have now won 5 of their last 6 contests. They’re still 13.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East and hold a 2-game lead on Boston for 3rd in the division.

The Red Sox limped into the All-Star break with back-to-back losses to the Yankees by a combined score of 27-3. They dropped 6 of their last 7 games to the Tampa Bay Rays and Yankees and have dropped lost 10 of their last 13 outings overall.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Gausman (6-7, 2.87 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 94 IP.

Despite allowing more than 3 runs just once along a 7-game span the Blue Jays have lost 6 of those starts.
Gausman is 2-0 and has allowed just 1 earned run in 21 innings with 27 strikeouts in 3 starts against the Red Sox in 2022.

Eovaldi (4-2, 3.34 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 72 2/3 IP.

The Red Sox came away with a win in each of Eovaldi’s last 5 starts, so he’s been the ace of this staff.
Pitched 4 1/3 innings at the Yankees and allowing 3 earned runs in a 5-4 win in his return from the IL last Friday.

Blue Jays at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Blue Jays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Red Sox +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+130) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Red Sox 5

Money line

The Blue Jays (-125) money line actually isn’t as juiced as I expected it to be for a team that’s beaten the Red Sox in 7 of 10 meetings this season. Gausman has owned Boston this year and boasts a strong 2.87 ERA overall.

I like the BLUE JAYS (-125) to win outright on the road.

Run line/Against the spread

You can sprinkle on the run line if you’re feeling really good about Toronto’s chances against the Red Sox. The Red Sox have been surprisingly good against the spread this year and are 50-43 RL — good for 7th-best in the league.

The Blue Jays are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, covering the run line in just 40 of their 93 games — one of the worst ATS records in all of baseball. I would PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over 50 times in the Blue Jays’ 93 games, tied for the most in baseball. There have been at least 9 runs scored in each of the last 3 meetings between these teams, and even if Toronto doesn’t get to Eovaldi early, the Red Sox’s bullpen isn’t great.

Bet the OVER 8.5 (-130).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Game 2 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (49-47) and Boston Red Sox (62-39) come off a Tuesday rainout with a Wednesday doubleheader at Fenway Park. Game 2 is expected to begin around 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Steven Matz is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. Over 17 starts, Matz is 8-5 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 across 87 IP.

Matz has run into too much contact while yielding too many fly balls of late with a 39% ground-ball rate over his last four starts. A right-leaning Boston lineup owns a 1.000 OPS against him.

RHP Tanner Houck is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. Over five games (three starts), the 25-year-old righty is 0-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 18 IP.

Houck has worked his way around a .348 batting average on balls in play. He typically gets the Red Sox 3-5 innings in his starts (and didn’t pitch much longer in his Triple-A turns before being called up), so figure on a struggling Red Sox bullpen to be heavily involved in this contest.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.

Money line: Blue Jays +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

Boston won Monday’s series opener and is 6-1 over its last seven games.

However, the BLUE JAYS (+110) are the best play in this contest. In a runs-versus-runs-allowed analysis, Toronto’s record is seven games below expectations. In a direct-opponent example of that, the Jays have outscored the Red Sox 69-61 but are just 4-8 against them.

Matz has been undone by a .321 BABIP and a high 16.0% rate of fly balls registering as home runs. Houck will expose a scuffling Boston bullpen which may not be in good shape in the second of two games on the day, even with the shortened inning commitment.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the additional juice in this prop.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both offenses look to be overcooked at their current run-per-game outputs. Both went into this week with matching .343 BABIPs in high-leverage situations, and that has served to overinflate their offensive numbers.

Mix in some lean toward Matz, a sub-70 game-time temperature, and the forecast of an inward breeze for this second 7-inning game of the day. BACK UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (39-25) host the Toronto Blue Jays (31-30) for Game 2 of their four-game series Saturday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-2.

LHP Steven Matz makes his 13th start for the Blue Jays. Matz is 6-3 with a 4.50 ERA (64 IP, 32 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Loss, 6-3, in 4 1/3 IP with 4 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 3 K Sunday vs. the Houston Astros.
Matz made a start vs. Boston May 20 and picked up a no-decision with 6 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Toronto’s 8-7 loss.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 65 at-bats with a .354/.382/.569 slash line, 15/2 K/BB, 4 HR and 10 RBIs.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for the Red Sox. Pivetta is 6-1 with a 3.78 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 across 12 starts.

Last outing: No-decision in 4 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Boston’s 5-3 victory over the Miami Marlins Monday.
Pivetta was the Red Sox’s starter in their 8-7 May 20 win, and he had 5 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 8 K, also earning a no-decision.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 35 at-bats with a .343/.439/.514 slash line, 9/6 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.

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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Money line: Blue Jays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RED SOX (-130) for a half-unit because Boston has a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup and hitting and a massive edge in relief pitching.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit if at all because their last two victories over the Blue Jays have both been by only one run.

But, Boston’s bullpen is seventh in WAR, and the lineup could add some insurance runs against a Toronto ‘pen that ranks 21st in xFIP.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 9.5 (-110) for 1 unit because the Red Sox’s hitting is mediocre vs. lefties, and both pitchers performed better against their respective opponents than their basic numbers indicate.

For instance, against Boston on May 20, Matz had his second-lowest hard-hit rate and third-lowest exit velocity of the season.

But, Matz’s .429 BAbip was the second-highest of any game this season, and typically a high BAbip indicates bad luck for a pitcher.

However, the same can be said about Pivetta in that very same game as his 1.15 FIP is much lower vs. the Blue Jays than his 7.20 ERA, which is an ERA estimator.

Furthermore, Pivetta’s .467 BAbip was outrageously high while he had a low 26.7% hard-hit rate and the lowest exit velocity of any start this season at 84.3 mph.

Also, Boston’s lineup ranks sixth in WAR overall but is below-average vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting categories wRC+ and wOBA with the third-lowest hard-hit rate.

Finally, the play is the UNDER 9.5 (-110) because Blue Jays-Red Sox opened with a 10-run total, but the market backing the Under has cashed oddsmakers to move the total down.

I’m OK following the market on this one because the Under is being backed despite both lineups having a ton of firepower and the starters being more mediocre than effective.

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