Tag: texas vs oklahoma predictions

Texas offense: Discussing the use of bubble screens

How often will Steve Sarkisian use bubble screens against Oklahoma? We discuss.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian likes bubble screens. After watching Longhorns receiver Xavier Worthy break this play as a freshman in burnt orange, it’s hard to fault Sarkisian for his fondness for the play. Even so, the play has more important value than getting a positive gain.

Bubble screens, like downfield shots, set up other plays in the playbook whether they are successful or not. You run those plays to open up other plays. In particular, bubble screens help prevent linebackers from sitting between the tackles, potentially manipulate safeties in future plays, make cornerbacks tackle and take on blocks, and force each position to defend the perimeter.

Though Sarkisian’s bubble screens did not net great results against Kansas, and perhaps were the reason the Longhorns did not score on a drive or two, they did set up a 218 yard rushing day for starting running back Jonathon Brooks. It’s what they set up that creates play calling value.

What about the use of receiver screens on Saturday?

The Oklahoma defense is bound to attack the Texas offense in this game. It likely wants to take away any easy throw from Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers. With that comes the likelihood that Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables will clamp down on the bubble screen like Baylor and Kansas have the last two weeks. It is still a set up play, and could open up more for the offense.

While Texas shouldn’t call the play in critical points of a drive, its value is still worthy being called. The danger comes in doubling down on the bubble screen as a solution like the previous coaching staff did in 2019 and 2020 losses to the aggressive Sooners. It’s not a solution. It’s an effective tool.

Oklahoma wants to take away easy completions. Texas probably knows that. Even so, success in this game is about setting a tone that the Sooners will have to defend every blade of grass on Saturday. The Longhorns need to do that in this game whether they use the screen or not.

Both teams will look to set their own tone and make a statement Saturday at 11 a.m. CT on ABC.

Predicting the best games of Week 6 including Texas and Oklahoma

We predict the best games and more from the Week 6 slate.

We near the midseason mark of the 2023 college football regular season. As it always should be, the Red River game is the focal point of the week in which it is played. It wasn’t last season.

The 2022 matchup is irrelevant to this game, but it was a snoozer nationally before it was played. Both teams has two losses heading into the game. This year is different. Squads on either side are aiming to make their playoff case in the rivalry game.

Another rivalry, though contrived, takes place in College Station. Alabama and Texas A&M face each other for what will undoubtedly be a hard-fought battle.

Let’s look at a few of our picks for the Week 6 slate.

Sooners Wire shares its expectations for game between Texas, Oklahoma

“Like most years, this game is a coin-flip between two talented squads.”

Oklahoma football is better in 2023. In fact, the team looks much better than we expected heading into the season. They look like the most underrated team in the country.

On Saturday, we’ll learn if the Sooners’ hot start is a product of the team’s schedule or if Top 25 voters overthought the team’s early 2023 slate. For now, the schedule seems like a legitimate caveat to what the team has done so far. We just don’t know if Oklahoma is a national title contender or just a good football team.

Oklahoma is 5-0 as we predicted it would be to this point. The five wins include dominant performances over Iowa State and two Group of Five teams along with closer games against SMU and Cincinnati.

Some are uncertain if Oklahoma can make up the 49-point deficit from last year’s game. That was our contention in the offseason, but the Sooners appear to have bridged the gap into a near 50-50 contest.

We talked with our colleagues from Sooners Wire about the game, this year’s Oklahoma football team and the potential rematch for a Big 12 title in December. Here’s what they had to say about the two teams.

Advanced stats have Texas over Oklahoma per Parker Fleming

Based on 2023 performance, advanced stats favor Texas over Oklahoma by a touchdown.

Texas is a touchdown favorite over Oklahoma this week. Advanced stats bear out that notion to be true according to metrics shared by advanced stats expert Parker Fleming.

In his advanced stats preview of the game, Fleming’s numbers point to Texas defeating Oklahoma by an average score of roughly 33-26. The score is within reason based on the tug of war many expect to see in the game.

Many of the stats in question feature strength-on-strength battles. In this game, both teams are excellent on offense and defense save for a handful of categories. It’s within reason that both teams could play to a virtual draw because of an even level of performance.

It’s uncertain what to make of both teams. Oklahoma has maximized opportunities against a bad schedule. Texas has failed to maximize opportunities against lesser opponents. Even so, what we don’t know will likely be unearthed in this game.

Texas takes on Oklahoma at 11 a.m. CT on ABC.

Free Catalon: Why the Texas safety could be full-go against Oklahoma

Texas might fully utilize former All-SEC safety Jalen Catalon on Saturday.

Texas safety Jalen Catalon is a heat-seeking missile. His target is opposing ball carriers at which he runs with intent to bring down with authority. It could be time for the Longhorns to fully utilize Catalon in what will be the biggest remaining game of the season.

The No. 3 Texas Longhorns (5-0) will take on the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) on Saturday. The Sooners have made this game significant with their dominant play through five games. The matchup demands that the Longhorns exhaust all effort to win. Catalon stands as one of the players Texas can ill afford to minimize.

The transfer and former All-SEC safety is necessary for several reasons, but one is the Longhorns’ struggling secondary play. Last week continued the trend of the team getting beat by the downfield throw and featured a backup safety or two getting burned in coverage. This isn’t the week to risk that happening again.

Texas faces an Oklahoma squad who can make teams pay for vulnerability at safety. The Sooners can attack with downfield shots, but can also attack weaknesses in the intermediate passing game. The Longhorns need range from their safeties. No safety on the roster has more range than Catalon.

Whatever reason Catalon has been limited to a select amount of plays this season might be thrown out the window on Saturday. The Oklahoma game isn’t the whole season, but it’s certainly the most important conference battle.

Texas can’t hold anything back against Oklahoma. It needs its best players for as many snaps as possible. The team will look to deploy Catalon against the Sooners in Saturday’s game.

First down defense among Texas’ biggest keys to slowing Oklahoma

If Texas prevents Oklahoma from running tempo, it can win the game. It all starts with winning first down.

The Oklahoma Sooners have perhaps the most explosive offense in college football. Certainly, the team possesses the most explosive offense in the Big 12 as long as the UCF Golden Knights are without John Rhys Plumlee at quarterback.

The Sooners’ high scoring offense is cause for concern, but not without its flaws. While the Texas Longhorns have scored more than 30 points in every contest, Oklahoma has fallen below 30 point scoring outputs against SMU and Cincinnati. It’s not feast or famine in Norman, but it is feast or tighten-up-your-belt and conserve.

Oklahoma’s last performance that yielded offensive struggles came against Cincinnati. The Sooners won the game 20-6. The Bearcats did several things well defensively, but what they did best involved preventing the Oklahoma offense from going up-tempo. And when the Sooners could not speed up the pace offensively, they looked pedestrian.

The 2023 Oklahoma up-tempo style is not far off from the 2008 Sooners’ offensive pace. That Oklahoma team had five straight games in which they scored 60 points or more. The next game they faced a Florida team that held them to 14 points. When you can stop a tempo-dependent team from speeding up the game, it becomes a shell of itself.

It is unclear if Oklahoma can execute 12-play drives without fast tempo against the Texas defense. What is clear is the Longhorns’ best chance of stopping the Sooners is winning in the first three plays of the drive and on first downs.

If defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski can slow the Sooners early in drives with negative and neutral plays, the Longhorns should have success on defense.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Who the experts are predicting to win the Red River Rivalry

Experts are feeling fairly confident in Texas to win the Red River Shootout this year.

One of the best college football games of the year is just days away. Continue reading “Texas vs. Oklahoma: Who the experts are predicting to win the Red River Rivalry”

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Who the experts are picking to win

“I’m hammering this as my lock of the week”

In less than 24 hours, Texas and Oklahoma will face off in the Cotton Bowl for a crucial Big 12 matchup. Continue reading “Texas vs. Oklahoma: Who the experts are picking to win”

Longhorns Wire staff predictions for Texas vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma is favored -3.5 in this matchup courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook. How confident is our staff that Texas can pull off the win?

The best rivalry game in college football is finally here.

Texas and Oklahoma will face off against each other on Oct. 9 at 11 a.m. CDT at the Cotton Bowl.

Oklahoma enters the matchup as the No. 6 team in the country, while Texas skyrocketed into the rankings this past week at No. 21.

While the Sooners have had their fair share of struggles, the Longhorns have found some consistency and deploy one of the most dangerous offenses in the country.

How confident is the Longhorns Wire staff that Texas can escape with a win in Week 6? Not very.

Staff predicts the game

Texas (+3.5) Record ATS Winner Record Overall
Cami Texas 2-3 Texas 4-1
Griffin Texas 1-4 Oklahoma 4-1
Kevin Texas 2-3 Texas 4-1

Cami Griffin

Is accurately predicting the Red River Shootout even possible?

I’m not quite sure that we truly know who this Oklahoma team is yet. Through the first five weeks of the season, they certainly haven’t resembled the type of offensive powerhouse that we’ve grown accustomed to. Are they being relatively conservative? Are they just executing poorly?

Regardless, I am confident in Steve Sarkisian’s ability to dial up mismatches for Texas’ offense in order to move the ball down the field efficiently. Oklahoma’s primary goal will be to limit Bijan Robinson on the ground and force Casey Thompson to beat them through the air. I don’t think they’ll be successful with that.

While Robinson won’t explode for another 200+ yards rushing in this one, I certainly think it’s realistic for him to have a 100-yard game. He is that rare of a talent, and coupling him with one of the top offensive guru’s in the game is a lethal combination.

I expect both offenses to have their fair share of success in this one, and it may come down to which defense can force a game-changing turnover.

Texas 38, Oklahoma 35

Griffin McVeigh

It’s Red River. Everything I say gets thrown out the window the second both teams hit the field. All I know is the score will be close.

Texas’ defensive line will be the difference. If they can get home and make Spencer Rattler uncomfortable, a few turnovers will go in favor of the good guys. Give him time to make throws and it will once again be last one to score wins.

Here’s to praying my overall record is 4-2 this time next week.

Oklahoma 42, Texas 40

Kevin Borba

I flipped a coin a couple times and it landed on the middle twice, trying to accurately predict this game just is not something I am looking forward to. One thing is for certain, there will be football played between Texas and Oklahoma on Saturday.

The Longhorns will need a big performance from Casey Thompson, possibly the best of his college career, in order to win this game. The Oklahoma defense is likely going to do everything they can to force Thompson, rather than running back Bijan Robinson, to beat them.

Texas’ defense cannot get beat vertically like they did against Texas Tech. If the defense can make Rattler uncomfortable, the crimson side of the stadium will surely be calling for Caleb Williams. Oklahoma has done very poorly against lesser competition, so theoretically, if this were not the most unpredictable game ever, the Longhorns would finally beat them.

This game has been decided by single digits all but one time since 2014, but I am calling for a double digit win for Texas. I do not think this will be a blowout, but more-so a game that the Longhorns build and hold a lead.

Texas 42, Oklahoma 30