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The No. 9 seed Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) and No. 8 seed Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) meet Saturday at Ohio Stadium in Columbus for a first-round tilt in the new College Football Playoff. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ABC / ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The weather forecast in Columbus calls for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 25 degrees at kickoff. There will only be a slight 4-6 MPH breeze. While it will be cold, weather shouldn’t be much of a factor.
The Volunteers and Buckeyes meet for just the second time ever. These teams faced each other on New Year’s Day in 1996 at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, with the Vols coming out ahead 20-14. QB Peyton Manning and Tennessee were able to ease past Heisman Trophy-winner RB Eddie George and Ohio State that day.
Tennessee rebounded from a 31-17 loss at Georgia on Nov. 16, taking care of UTEP and Vanderbilt in the final 2 games, while also grabbing covers in those games. The Over cashed in each of the final 3 contests.
Ohio State suffered a very disappointing 13-10 loss at home to rival Michigan Nov. 30 at The Horseshoe, and it was a 19.5-point favorite in that contest. The Under (41.5) cashed, and the total ended up going low in 5 of the final 6 games for the Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes defense did their job down the stretch, allowing 17 or fewer points in each of the final 6 games, and 11 of 12 games this season. In fact, Ohio State was No. 1 in the country with just 241.1 total yards allowed and 10.9 PPG. The passing game yielded only 144.3 yards per game, second-best in the land, while the rush defense allowed only 96.8 yards per game.
On offense, Ohio State was good for 35.5 PPG, and RB Quinshon Judkins led a two-headed attack with 805 rushing yards and 8 TDs. True freshman WR Jeremiah Smith was a stud out of the gate, amassing 934 yards with 10 TDs, while WR Emeka Egbuka was a strong secondary option with 60 receptions, 743 yards and 9 TDs.
Tennessee had a powerful offense, led by QB Nico Iamaleava. The Vols posted 463.5 total yards, 232.5 rushing yards and 37.3 points per game, all ranking inside the Top 10 nationally.
Defensively, the Vols also ranked inside the Top 10 with 278.3 total yards, 99.6 rushing yards and 13.9 points per game allowed.
Tennessee is No. 6 in the US LBM Coaches Poll; Ohio State is No. 7 — conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.
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Tennessee at Ohio State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tennessee +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Ohio State -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Tennessee +7 (-105) | Ohio State -7 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Tennessee at Ohio State picks and predictions
Prediction
Tennessee 23, Ohio State 20
Moneyline
It’s worth a roll of the dice to back TENNESSEE (+220). Traditionally, Ohio State (-275) has really struggled with SEC opponents over the years, going 2-14 all-time in bowl games.
In addition, there isn’t a lot of confidence in the Buckeyes after failing to win outright as a 19.5-point favorite against rival Michigan. The defensive effort was there, including a tremendous athletic interception by LB Jack Sawyer. But, the offense really struggled, and will have to be a lot less vanilla if it hopes to win. If Ohio State loses, Ryan Day’s coaching seat will heat up to lava-like temperatures.
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Against the spread
BACK TENNESSEE +7 (-105), as this is a lot of points for this matchup.
The Vols did struggle on the road, however, going just 2-2 SU/ATS in 4 outings away from home in the SEC, including an outright loss to Arkansas as a 14-point favorite on Oct. 5 that not a lot of people talk about. They also lost to Georgia, but there isn’t a lot of shame in that.
Ohio State -7 (-115) is a big number for this magnitude of a game, and it is just 3-4 ATS in the past 7 outings.
Over/Under
UNDER 46.5 (-115) is the play, as both of these teams have powerful offenses capable of keeping scores really low.
Again, Ohio State went low in 5 of the final 6 games, and 7 of the final 9 outings. It allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of 12 games, so Tennessee will find points to be at a premium.
The Vols cashed the Over in each of the final 3 games, but the Over-Under was 2-2 in 4 true road games this season, while it allowed 18 or fewer points in 10 of 12 outings.
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