super bowl prop bets – Page 3 – Syndication Server

2023 Super Bowl: A.J. Brown prop bet odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown’s Super Bowl prop bets odds, with predictions and picks for the best prop bets to make.

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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) battle the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s odds for A.J. Brown’s Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Brown set the Eagles’ single-season receiving record with 1,496 yards, which was 4th in the NFL this season.

With 88 receptions and 11 TDs, he and QB Jalen Hurts were the connection the Eagles were hoping for when they traded for Brown on draft day. Now, he’ll need to prove himself once again during the Super Bowl after a lackluster playoff run so far.

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A.J. Brown 2023 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 12:07 p.m. ET.

Receiving yards: OVER 71.5 (-115)

This is the tougher of the 2 wagers on Brown in this one. While he is all but assured to get Over the 4.5 receptions being offered (mentioned below), yards have been difficult for him to come by in the playoffs.

He had 4 catches for 28 yards against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and 3 receptions for 22 yards vs. the New York Giants in the Divisional Round.

These numbers will increase in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to opponents’ TD passes. They allowed a league-worst 33 during the season.

Hurts will look to throw and, going against a young secondary, he will find his talented duo of receivers for plenty of yards. Both Brown and WR DeVonta Smith could go for Over 100 receiving yards.

TAKE OVER 71.5 YARDS (-115).

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Receptions: OVER 4.5 (-150)

Brown will get to 4.5 receptions. This is why the odds are tilted sharply in this manner. (Under 4.5 is +120)

Despite his lack of yardage in the playoffs, 5 is an easy number for Brown to catch in this Super Bowl, especially against a Kansas City defense which is going to be starting 3 and possibly 4 rookies.

Expect Hurts to look for Brown early and often. This could go Over by halftime.

TAKE OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-150) or get an alternate number at better odds.

Touchdown(s)

ANYTIME (+120) | 2+: (+700) | 3+: (+4000)

Make a play on ANYTIME (+120).

A small play on 2+ (+700) is also an option, and while he had 3 in one game this season, I don’t see it … even at +4000.

Receiving yards

50+: (-295) | 75+: (-110) | 100+: (+245)
125+ (+550) | 150+ (+1200)

If you want to climb the ladder with wagers, you could. Decide on the number you think he will get and wager all numbers up to that point. If he gets to 150 and you bet all numbers below, it will win you some good money. If he fails to make is, you could still win some money with the lower levels cashing in.

I don’t see Brown getting to 150+, but taking the ladder to 125+ is a good option.

Big game countdown

A.J. Brown to record 8+ receptions: +475

(Max bet: $50)

This was offered Tuesday by Tipico Sportsbook, but it’s since been removed. If it returns, it’s worth considering.

While Brown doesn’t normally get 8 receptions in a game, this wager is worth a few dollars as the Chiefs could be playing 4 rookies in the secondary. As mentioned, the Chiefs gave up the most passing TDs in the league this season (33). They are prone to giving up stats in the passing game, so I would put a little bit on this “big game” play.

More 2023 Super Bowl coverage

Odds, picks and predictions for the big game
QB props: Patrick Mahomes | Jalen Hurts
Cheat sheet: Picks and predictions galore

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2023 Super Bowl: Patrick Mahomes prop bet odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ Super Bowl prop bets odds, with predictions and picks for the best prop bets to make.

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The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) face off in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Sunday’s kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s odds for Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had 1 of the best seasons of his young career in 2022, leading the league in passing yards (5,250), passing TDs (41), passing 1st downs (272), passes of 20+ yards (73) and passes of 40+ yards (13) during the regular season.

Mahomes’ success makes his props some of the most enticing bets for the Super Bowl. Let’s dive into his player props and find the best bets.

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Patrick Mahomes 2023 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:41 p.m. ET.

Passing yards: OVER 288.5 (-115)

The Over for Mahomes’ passing yards prop is 6-4 in his last 10 games, and he has also gone over 300 passing yards in 6 of his last 10 games.

The Eagles have allowed a team to throw for Over 288.5 passing yards just once this season — Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who threw for 347 yards in a 40-33 win over the Eagles in Week 16. However, it’s no secret that the QB competition the Eagles faced this season was subpar at best.

Mahomes just put up 326 yards passing on the Cincinnati Bengals defense with a hurt ankle. In fact, that hurt ankle is part of the reason why he threw for more yards — he chose to stay in the pocket for most of the game instead of using his legs to pick up yardage. With 2 weeks of rest, Mahomes’ ankle should be better, but he should still be able to get close to 300.

LEAN OVER 288.5 (-115).

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Pass completions: OVER 25.5 (-115)

The Over in pass completions is split 5-5 in Mahomes’ last 10 games. The Under has generally hit when either the majority of the game was firmly in the Chiefs’ control (like the Chiefs’ wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders and Seattle Seahawks) or when the Chiefs’ offense struggled (like the Week 13 loss to the Bengals).

In recent games when the opposing team has been more competitive (like the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game or both matchups against the Denver Broncos), Mahomes has tended to throw more completions. This game should be close and competitive, so expect Mahomes to reach the Over.

BET OVER 25.5 (-115).

Passing TDs: OVER 1.5 (-220)

Mahomes has hit Over 1.5 passing TDs in 14 of 19 games this season, including 7 of his last 10. Over 1.5 is an easy bet, hence the low vig at -220.

This line would be more interesting if it moved to 2.5 passing TDs. Mahomes has gone Over 2.5 in 8 of 19 games this year, including 3 of his last 10. With the Chiefs’ running game rolling, I’d consider betting Under 2.5 passing TDs for Mahomes if that was an option.

Since it’s not an option, your best move is to bet OVER 1.5 (-220), but you should only include it in a parlay since the juice is so low.

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Rushing yards: UNDER 18.5 (-115)

Mahomes was forced to remain in the pocket for most of the AFC Championship Game due to the high-ankle sprain that he suffered in the Divisional Round. He picked up yards on his feet when it truly mattered but still ultimately rushed for just 8 yards.

In fact, Mahomes has rushed for just 8 yards in 4 of his last 5 games, and under 10 yards in 6 of his last 8. Mahomes is just as comfortable in the pocket as he is running, so don’t expect him to take off much in this game.

TAKE UNDER 18.5 (-115).

Interceptions thrown: UNDER 0.5 (-115)

Mahomes has thrown just 1 interception in his last 6 games. The Eagles defense, meanwhile, has 3 INTs in its last 8 games against non-impressive QB competition. It seems unlikely that Mahomes will give the ball away in such a pivotal matchup.

TAKE UNDER 0.5 (-115).

Pass attempts: OVER 38.5 (-115)

The Over is 5-5 in Mahomes’ last 10 with this stat. Similar to our rationale on taking OVER 25.5 (-115) PASS COMPLETIONS, we like the Over on pass attempts since the Chiefs tend to pass more against competitive squads.

LEAN OVER 38.5 (-125).

Rushing/receiving touchdown(s)

Anytime (+500) | 2+: (+5000) | 3+: (+15000)

AVOID. It’s very unlikely Mahomes will run 1 in given his ankle issues. Plus, he has just 4 rushing TDs this season and hasn’t had 1 since Week 16.

Passing yards

200+: (-2941) | 250+: (-375) | 300+: (-105)
350+: (+280) | 400+: (+1050) | +450: (+1200)

There’s good value in nearly doubling your money by betting on Mahomes to earn OVER 300 passing yards. He’s accomplished this feat in 11 out of 19 games this season, even against quality defenses like the Bengals, Broncos (twice), Los Angeles Chargers and 49ers. 350+ yards (+280) would be pushing it — he’s only gone over 350 four times this season — though it’s not out of the question.

Rushing yards

40+: (+650) | 50+: (+725)

AVOID.

Since we’re backing UNDER 18.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115), a play here wouldn’t make sense. Even if Mahomes manages to get 19+ rushing yards, he’s still unlikely to hit 40 — he’s done so only once this season.

More 2023 Super Bowl coverage

Odds, picks and predictions for the big game
Player props: Travis Kelce | Jalen Hurts
Cheat sheet: Picks and predictions galore

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Super Bowl LVII: The 57 most important players

Who are the 57 most important players to take the field in Super Bowl LVII? With tape examples and metrics as his guides, Doug Farrar put together this large list.

Who are the best players set to play in Super Bowl LVII between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs?

It’s a valid question, and there are no Super Bowl teams who make it with a bunch of scrubs and no stars.

Perhaps a more valid question as we start to look at the matchups that define this upcoming game is, which players are the most important to their teams? Since this Sunday’s Super Bowl is the 57th, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to rank the 57 most important players in this game. The obvious players of paramount importance are up top as you might expect, but as you go down the list, there are all kinds of players you may not know much about who could come out of nowhere and make the difference in their team’s quest for the Lombardi Trophy.

I did not include Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman (who probably would have been Top-20) on this list, based on what Andy Reid said this week regarding the pelvic injury he suffered in the AFC Championship game.

“I think it will be tough for him. I doubt that he’ll make the Super Bowl. But listen, like I said, he wasn’t going to be denied the other day. It’s a tribute to the kid, he just pushed himself like no other. And he’s a tough nut. He’s all smiles with you, but when it comes down to playing, he’s a tough, tough kid.”

So, with that aside, and with copious tape study and a ton of metrics as my guide, here are my 57 most important players to take the field in Super Bowl LVII.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).

2022 Super Bowl: Bank on these 3 players to score a touchdown

Looking at what players could score an anytime touchdown with Super Bowl prop bets, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

Super Bowl LVI will feature the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals, who will battle for a world championship Sunday at SoFi Stadium with an opening kickoff scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET.

Below, we look at Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions, specifically at who are the players to bank on to score an anytime touchdown.

While there is certainly debate as to who will win the Super Bowl, one thing is sure. There will be touchdowns scored. There has been at least one touchdown scored in every Super Bowl.

In my 2022 Super Bowl prediction, I have five touchdowns being scored. Who are the players we can count on to score?

Anytime TD 2022 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:12 a.m. ET.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp (-180)

Kupp scored 16 touchdowns in the regular season and added 4 more in three postseason games. He has scored a touchdown in five straight games and in eight of his last nine. He is the surest bet, which is why the payout isn’t great.

Bengals RB Joe Mixon (+105)

Mixon scored 13 rushing touchdowns in the regular season and 1 in the postseason. The Rams have only allowed 20 passing touchdowns in 20 games. If the Bengals are going to get in the end zone, it will be on the ground. The Rams allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in the regular season.

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Rams RB Cam Akers (+125)

Akers has not scored yet since returning from his Achilles injury, but he is taking a larger role in the offense. QB Matthew Stafford scored 2 TDs in the postseason, but I expect Akers to get a goal-line carry Sunday.

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2022 Super Bowl prop bets: Cam Akers rushing, receiving yards and TDs

Looking at Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers Super Bowl prop bets, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

Super Bowl 56 kicks off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET when the Cincinnati Bengals face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in L.A. It’s a borderline miracle second-yard Rams RB Cam Akers is even able to play in the Super Bowl.

Akers tore his Achilles during this past offseason and it’s almost unthinkable for an athlete to return from an Achilles tear midseason. But Akers defied the odds and made his season debut in L.A.’s regular-season finale against the San Francisco 49ers. Below, we look at Cam Akers’ Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.

Cam Akers 2022 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3:15 a.m. ET.

Rushing Yards: UNDER 63.5 (-114)

The three reasons for liking the Under in Akers’ rushing props are Akers’ limited effectiveness in his four games this season, Rams’ second-string RB Sony Michel’s‘ experience in the Big Game and the return of RB Darrell Henderson.

Since returning to action, Akers hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in any of his four games and is gaining just 2.6 yards per carry (154 rushing yards on 59 attempts).

Also, Akers had his workload reduced in the NFC title game after two costly fumbles in L.A.’s 30-27 victory over the Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Round. Akers went from 24 carries versus Tampa Bay to just 13 carries against San Francisco.

Furthermore, Rams head coach Sean McVay announced earlier this week that Henderson would be active in the Super Bowl, saying: “I think Darrell’s going to go. So, you’ll have Cam, Darrell and Sony. You’ll be able to see a good, three-back rotation, based on how the game unfolds.”

Not only has Akers shown ball-security issues and hasn’t done much on the ground, but Michael and Henderson both average more yards per carry than Akers. In fact, Henderson has the seventh-best success rate for running backs in the NFL.

Combine these things with Michel having already played in and won a Super Bowl with the New England Patriots, Akers should get less opportunity.

BET a half-unit on UNDER 63.5 rushing yards (-114).

Rushing Attempts: UNDER 15.5 (-114)

All the logic written above applies to this prop as well. I’m splitting a full unit amongst both Akers’ rushing props because they both have a similar likelihood of cashing.

If the Rams are up in the fourth quarter, I’d expect them to use Michel or Henderson since they are more effective and Akers fumbled twice this postseason.

BET a half-unit on UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts (-114).

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Receiving yards: OVER 16.5 (-120)

While Akers hasn’t been as effective running the ball as Michel or Henderson, Akers is the best pass-catching threat in L.A.’s backfield. Akers has gone Over 16.5 receiving yards in two of his three playoff games.

On top of that, Cincy’s defense has allowed the fourth-most pass targets to running backs during the regular season and the fifth-most receptions.

Finally, Raiders RB Josh Jacobs had 44 receiving yards versus the Bengals Super Wild Card weekend and Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon had 30 receiving yards in the AFC title game.

BET a half-unit on OVER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-120).

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2022 Super Bowl prop bets: Joe Mixon rushing yards and TDs

Looking at Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon Super Bowl prop bets, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Bengals meet the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in L.A. for Super Bowl 56 Sunday. One of Cincy’s key players is third-year RB Joe Mixon who finished the season third in rushing yards (1,205) and fourth in rushing touchdowns (13).

Mixon having a strong game would bring much-needed balance to the Bengals’ offense. In fact, Cincy is 6-0 in Mixon’s six best rushing performances during the regular season and playoffs combined. Below, we look at Joe Mixon’s Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.

Joe Mixon 2022 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:10 a.m. ET.

Rushing Yards: UNDER 60.5 (-114)

First of all, I’m looking at the Under for both of Mixon’s rushing props since I have the Rams beating the Bengals convincingly in the Super Bowl. If L.A. gets out to an early lead or is in control of the game in the second half then Cincy should abandon the run game.

L.A’s rush defense is very underrated; the Rams are fourth in yards per rush allowed (3.9), fifth in rush defense DVOA (according to Football Outsiders) and third in rush defense expected points added per play.

L.A. has also allowed 61 or fewer rushing yards to its opponent in all three playoff games and Mixon has rushed for 58 or fewer yards in six of his last eight games.

My strategy with Mixon’s rushing props is to BET a three-fourths unit on UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114) and save the other quarter-unit for the Under on rushing attempts.

Rushing Attempts: UNDER 16.5 (-123)

The same point about game-script applies to this prop as well but I’m more confident in Under Mixon rushing yards because I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincy tries to establish the run early on.

However, I see the Rams and QB Matthew Stafford starting out hot, and apparently, the market agrees since the Under for Mixon Rushing Attempts is heavily juiced.

Mixon appeared in six of Cincy’s seven losses and had 14 or fewer rushing attempts in three of those games. Plus, the Bengals are 19th in rushing rate despite being 10th in time of possession.

BET a quarter-unit on UNDER 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-123).

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Anytime TD scorer: Mixon (+110)

PASS.

If Tipico offered a “No for Joe Mixon to score a touchdown” then I’d be interested in that, but they don’t. However, Mixon does have a nose for the end zone and it would be a bummer to lose on a short-yardage, goal-to-go scamper.

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2022 Super Bowl prop bets: Rams total points

Looking at Los Angeles Rams total points Super Bowl prop bets, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

The NFC champion Los Angeles Rams cruised to a 12-5 regular-season record, winning many of their games comfortably, too. They face the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday in Super Bowl 56. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (on NBC) from SoFi Stadium, the Rams’ home field.

The Rams score an average of 28.0 points per game in three playoff wins to get here. How many will they put on the scoreboard in Sunday’s Super Bowl LVI?

Below, we look at the Rams’ total points Super Bowl prop bet with NFL picks and predictions.

The Rams won the NFC West by a nose, and have landed a spot in the 2022 Super Bowl by beating (in order) the Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers in the postseason.

They finished the regular season seventh in the NFL in scoring, coincidentally tied with the Bengals. Both teams averaged 27.1 points per game, which is a big reason they won their respective divisions and have made deep runs to the Super Bowl.

QB Matthew Stafford lit it up in his first season with the Rams, throwing 41 touchdowns and racking up 4,886 yards through the air. He tossed another 6 TDs this postseason, helping the Rams score an average of 28.0 points per game.

Los Angeles Rams 2022 Super Bowl prop bet

Over/Under (O/U): 26.5 (O: -112 | U: 108)

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:10 p.m. ET.

The play: OVER 26.5 (-112)

It’s no coincidence that the line is set right around the Rams’ scoring average. They averaged 27 points per game in the regular season and 28 in the playoffs.

The Bengals defense isn’t anything special, ranking 17th during the regular season after allowing 22.1 points per game, but they held the Raiders, Titans and Chiefs in check by giving up a total of 59 points this postseason.

In 12 of their 20 games this season, the Rams scored at least 27 points. They only won four games when scoring fewer than 27 points, and they were 11-1 when putting up at least 27 points on the board. Their only loss was to the Packers.

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If you like the Rams to win this game – which I do – then betting OVER 26.5 (-112) Over is the way to go.

During this playoff run, they scored 34 against the Cardinals, 30 against the Buccaneers and 20 against the 49ers, and San Francisco is a team that’s had their number for years.

When you figure that three of their eight games with fewer than 27 points came against the 49ers, it’s easy to see how good the Rams offense has been all year.

Bet RAMS TOTAL OVER 26.5 (-112).

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2022 Super Bowl prop bets: First-half winner

Looking at Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl first-half winner, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals face off Sunday in Super Bowl LVI to determine who are this season’s NFL champions. While perhaps the most intriguing part of the game and the most intriguing bet that can be made is on the result, one can also wager on who will be leading after the first half. Will the Rams or Bengals end the first half in the lead, or might the game be tied?

Below, we look at the first-half winner Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Southern California. The game will be televised on NBC.

2022 Super Bowl first-half winner

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 3:10 a.m. ET.

First-half winner: Bengals (+150), Rams (-170), Tie (+1000)

Looking at the last 10 Super Bowls, two were tied at halftime: Chiefs-49ers two years ago and Patriots-Seahawks in the 2015 Super Bowl.

Two of the past 10 Super Bowl champs trailed at halftime. The Patriots rallied from 21-3 down to stun the Falcons 34-28 in the 2017 Super Bowl, and the Giants claimed a 21-17 victory over the Pats in the 2012 Super Bowl after trailing 10-9 at the break.

The other six times in the past 10 years, the eventual winner led at halftime.

More 2022 Super Bowl prop bet options

The Rams have led at halftime in two of their three postseason games. Of their 17 regular-season games, they trailed six times at halftime and were tied twice.

The Bengals led at halftime in two of their three postseason games. They trailed at halftime in eight of their 17 regular-season games.

There isn’t much to be said about their regular-season performances, as each team led at halftime in nine games in the regular season and two of three postseason games.

But looking at recent history, the most likely first-half winner is the one who will win the game and lift the Lombard Trophy.

I believe the Rams will ultimately be the champions, so take the chalky pick of the RAMS (-150) as the FIRST-HALF WINNER.

However, consider sprinkling something on TIE (+1000): FIRST-HALF WINNER. The payout is too great to pass up. It could be worth a hedge, at the very least.

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2022 Super Bowl prop bets: First-half total

Looking at Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl first-half total, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Rams meet the Cincinnati Bengals in their home building of SoFi Stadium Sunday for Super Bowl 56. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl first-half total with NFL picks and predictions.

L.A. advanced to its second Super Bowl in the last four seasons by hammering the Cardinals 34-11 in the Wild Card Round, upsetting the defending champion Buccaneers 30-27 in the Divisional Round and beating the Niners 20-17 in the NFC title game.

Cincy returns to the Big Game for the third time in franchise history, but the last trip was in 1989 – they lost both games to a Joe Montana-led 49ers squad.

They made it to this one after beating the Raiders 26-19 in a Wild Card tilt, upsetting the AFC’s top-seeded Titans 19-16 in the Divisional Round and stunning the second-seeded Chiefs 27-24 in K.C. in the conference championship.

See also:

Rams-Bengals first-half total

Over/Under (O/U): 23.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2:22 p.m. ET.

OVER 23.5 (-115)

L.A. put up one of the biggest offensive duds in Super Bowl history when the Rams and head coach Sean McVay (aka the Boy Genius) were embarrassed 13-3 by the Patriots in Super Bowl 53.

But McVay should have learned from that performance and there’s no way this Cincy coaching staff can devise as good of a defensive game plan as New England’s did in 2019.

The Rams were 45-0 overall when leading after the first half in the McVay era (est. 2016) before L.A. blew a first-half lead in a 27-24 overtime loss to San Francisco in Week 18.

McVay knows Cincy will be in serious trouble if it has to come from behind since the Rams have one of the best pass rushes (DE Aaron Donald) in the league and the Bengals have struggled in pass protection.

In fact, Cincy QB Joe Burrow was sacked 9 times versus Tennessee in the AFC Divisional Round. The Rams and McVay will harness their nervous energy and go all out on the Bengals in the first half.

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Also, much to my surprise, Cincy’s 10.6% return on investment on first-half Overs is the biggest in the NFL as the Bengals are 11-8-1 O/U in first halves this season, according to EVAnalytics.com.

Cincy goes Over the first-half total at the highest rate despite playing the third-slowest pace in the NFL. Plus, L.A. plays the fourth-fastest neutral situation pace, which further supports my previous point that the Rams will try to get out to a fast start.

While I give L.A.’s offense the edge in this matchup, Cincy’s offense is obviously potent and Burrow and Co. certainly have the talent to get into a shootout.

Furthermore, several NFL gambling podcasts and shows have touted the Under 23.5 (-105) first-half total for this Super Bowl, so it might end up as a quasi-popular betting derivative.

However, that pick seems somewhat lazy. Betting the first-half Under in NFL prime-time games was a very profitable system a few seasons ago.

The market is clinging to this outdated betting system and the oddsmakers are laying a trap by making the first-half Under cheaper.

BET FIRST-HALF OVER 23.5 (-115).

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2022 Super Bowl prop bets: Tee Higgins receptions, receiving yards and TDs

Looking at Cincinnati Bengals Tee Higgins’ Super Bowl prop bets, with 2022 Super Bowl odds, picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Bengals will play in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1989. While rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase has received most of the attention, 2020 second-round pick WR Tee Higgins has been a focal point of the offense as well.

With Los Angeles Rams CB Jalen Ramsey potentially shadowing the rookie Chase, Higgins could see additional responsibility.

The second-year, 6-foor-4 Higgins totaled 103 yards on 6 receptions against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. He had 96 yards on 7 receptions against the Titans in the game prior.

Higgins has outdone his rookie campaign (67 receptions, 908 yards, 6 TDs), totaling 1,091 yards on 74 receptions with 6 touchdowns and 110 targets. Below, we look at Tee Higgins’s Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.

Tee Higgins 2022 Super Bowl prop bets

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:52 p.m. ET.

Receptions: Over 5.5 (+100)

Teams in the NFL are starting to pick up how important Chase is to this offense. He had 2 games of over 200 receiving yards during the regular season. The Titans and Chiefs looked to contain Chase.

That opens the door for Higgins, who topped 5 receptions in each of the last 2 games.

More importantly, he accrued 19 targets in the 2 games, so the Bengals are throwing the ball to him. Over the last 8 weeks of the season (playoffs included), Higgins is averaging 8.1 receptions.

The Rams allowed the 5th-most completions in the NFL during the regular season. This prop is a strong play on a Rams defense that allows a high volume of receptions.

Given Higgins has a 66% catch rate on the season, just an average game Sunday should do the trick. With Chase likely being the focal point for a solid Rams’ defense, I’d play Higgins OVER 5.5 receptions (+100).

See also:

Receiving yards: Over 71.5 (-114)

Higgins has topped this total in 6 of his last 9 games. It hasn’t even been particularly close either.

In each time hitting over 71 yards, he’s cleared 95 as well, reaching three digits in 5 of them. In 6 of those 9 games, he’s also cleared over 15 yards per reception, which is another huge reason he’s been able to top this prop.

The Rams give up the 21st-most receiving yards per game at 238.6 yards per outing.

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Anytime touchdown: +160

I actually don’t like this bet. Higgins has 6 touchdowns on the season and has scored in just 5 games.

Plus, he didn’t score a touchdown in the Bengals’ three playoff wins.

With TE C.J. Uzomah having grown into a top red-zone target and WR Tyler Boyd having more prominence along with RB Joe Mixon getting touches within the final 20 yards, I’d stay away from this prop bet and focus on the above two Higgins prop bets for value.

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