Colts have a clear path to success in 2020.
While an offseason full of notable changes on both sides of the ball should help the Indianapolis Colts reach the playoffs, they should be getting some assistance from their strength of schedule as well.
>>>READ: Colts finalize roster, practice squad<<<
Instead of using the typical 2019 win totals to determine a team’s strength of schedule, Mark Schofield of Touchdown Wire instead used the DVOA metric from Football Outsiders. Here is Schofield’s explanation of the metric:
FO, creators of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), have what they call opponent average DVOA. Each team is given their own Total DVOA grade (combining offensive, defensive and special teams DVOA numbers) based on their roster, recent performance and statistical analysis for the season ahead. Then, you can take their 16 opponents, average the DVOA numbers, and have a better indication of the relative strength of each team’s schedules.
With all of those factors making up the opponent’s DVOA, the Colts wind up having the easiest strength of schedule in the entire league. It especially helps that they can get off to a hot start to begin the 2020 season.
Average Opponent DVOA: -2.2%
That’s right. According to opponent average DVOA, the Indianapolis Colts have the easiest schedule in the NFL next season. They play six games before their bye week, and only the Minnesota Vikings, who they face in Week 2, have a DVOA higher than 21st.
And the Vikings are 20th.
During that initial stretch they face Jacksonville (28th), Minnesota, the New York Jets (25th), the Chicago Bears (21st), the Cleveland Browns (24th) and the Cincinnati Bengals (29th).
But it is not like the schedule gets that much harder after the bye, at least in terms of opponent DVOA. Sure they face Baltimore at home, but they get the Houston Texans twice (23rd in DVOA), the Las Vegas Raiders (19th), the Green Bay Packers (16th) and Jacksonville once more. They only have two games against teams currently in the top ten in DVOA: Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Something to keep in mind when making season predictions.
With their bye in Week 7, the Colts have a real chance to start 5-1 or even 4-2 at worst. If the upgrades made at quarterback and defensive tackle perform true, a hot start to the season could be well in play.
The second half of the season will be tough, especially with a stretch of four division games in six weeks, one of which is a primetime matchup on Thursday night.
>>>READ: Colts’ 2020 schedule<<<
The Colts have missed out on the playoffs in four of the last five years but after some upgrades this offseason and now with an easier projected schedule, they could be in line to turn things around in 2020.