Tag: strength of schedule

Alabama with 18th toughest schedule in 2023 according to ESPN’s FPI

A look at Alabama’s strength of schedule for the 2023 college football season!

With just a little over 100 days until the Alabama Crimson Tide take the field for the first time in the 2023 college football season, it’s time to look at their strength of schedule.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Nick Saban and the Tide have the 18th hardest schedule in 2023.

While having the 18th strength of schedule doesn’t seem too easy, it is relative to a number of other SEC programs.

Nine other SEC schools have tougher schedules than Alabama in 2023 according to ESPN.

In fact, SEC rival Ole Miss sits with the No. 1 hardest schedule which includes road games against Tulane, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia.

Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Texas A&M join Ole Miss as SEC schools with tougher schedules than the Crimson Tide.

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Stacey Blackwood on Twitter @Blackwood89.

NFL executive explains why Dolphins-Chiefs game was ideal choice for Germany

An NFL spokesman said the competitive nature of the #Chiefs – #Dolphins matchup factored into the decision to have it played in Germany. | from @TheJohnDillon

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Many Kansas City Chiefs fans looked forward to an Arrowhead Stadium homecoming for Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill in 2023. Their hopes were dashed when the NFL schedule release revealed the league’s decision to send both teams to Germany to play the league’s first international game in Frankfurt.

On a conference call held last week regarding scheduling decisions, the NFL’s vice president of broadcasting, Onnie Bose, made it clear that the competitive nature expected out of the matchup tipped the league’s scale in favor of sending the game to Germany.

“The strength of the Chiefs’ schedule, and how many strong teams are coming into Kansas City this year, it’s a testament and a real benefit to our international teams and the NFL Network that a game like that, as meaningful and as competitive as we expect it to be, can go and be the first game that we play in Frankfurt,” He explained. “It was part of just the opportunity to play that game, that will draw a good audience into that 9:30 A.M. window was there.

“We always have options, there [were] a few other teams that could’ve gone in there, and sure, the Tyreek Hill storyline is something, and we get that, but I think the opportunity to play a meaningful competitive game internationally is really valuable to us.”

Clearly, the league expects the Chiefs’ matchup against Miami to be a barnburner. As much as fans may have hoped to see Hill eat crow in Kansas City, the NFL is more focused on international appeal than offseason storylines in their decision-making relative to the 2023 schedule.

Still, the Chiefs can make Hill look silly on an international stage in the highly anticipated tilt. There is sure to be plenty of trash-talking between Hill and his former teammates ahead of the matchup. The team also should be expected to have extra motivation to win over fans in Germany, where they have been given marketing rights.

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Big 12 teams’ strength of schedule ranked by College Football News

A look at how the Big 12 stacks up in strength of schedule according to College Football News.

Much has been made about the Oklahoma Sooners schedule. It would have looked better if not for the cancellation of the Georgia game. That nonconference powerhouse matchup was canceled in the wake of the announcement Oklahoma and Texas were joining the SEC.

The Sooners replaced the two-time defending national champions with the SMU Mustangs. SMU is a solid Group of Five program, but certainly not the stature of the Bulldogs.

College Football News created a scoring system based on its initial 1-133 Football Bowl Subdivision rankings, giving weight to where teams were ranked and whether the game is at home or not. In its scoring system, the lowest score represents the most difficult schedule.

Here’s how the Big 12 stacks up from strongest to weakest schedules of 2023.

Chiefs projected to have the third toughest strength of schedule in 2023

The #Chiefs’ strength of schedule is projected to be among the toughest in the NFL during the 2023 NFL season.

Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis expects the Kansas City Chiefs’ strength of schedule to be among the most difficult in the NFL in 2023.

Sharp always has a unique take on strength of schedule because his model adds much-needed context. He doesn’t just look at prior-year win-loss records as most strength-of-schedule rankings do. He built a model that creates a consensus betting line that factors in juice (the amount of money a sportsbook makes off of your bet). Why is juice important here? It helps understand the perception of how good a team is expected to be during the upcoming season. As teams get better, bigger money bets will come in for those teams.

Coming off of a 14-3 season where the Chiefs again finished as Super Bowl champions, they’re facing another first-place schedule this season. While they are set to play the AFC East and NFC North, they also have their own improved division and an extra game with the Philadelphia Eagles to get through. Those facts alone have many thinking K.C. is due for a tough schedule in 2023, and Sharp’s analysis seems to agree.

Their projected win total is 11.5, which is up from last season. Their current line is 11.5 wins (-105) according to Sharp. Their schedule is also the third-toughest in the NFL, ranking No. 30 in the strength of schedule. Only the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are expected to have more difficult schedules based on the opponents they’ll play.

It’s worth noting that last season, Sharp’s projected win total for Kansas City came in at 10.7 and the Chiefs won 14 games (well over the projected total).  Of the 10 teams predicted to have the toughest schedules last year, only Kansas City and Cincinnati went to the playoffs, meeting each other in the AFC Championship Game.

The Chiefs were forecasted as having the toughest schedule in the league (No. 32) in terms of difficulty last year, but they actually came in at No. 4 at the end of the season. A lot of that had to do with how the AFC West turned out last season. The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos both fell well short of their projected win totals, as did the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, who both faced Kansas City in 2022.

All that said, if Sharp’s model follows last season’s trajectory, two things will be true:

  1. The Chiefs’ schedule will turn out easier than projected.
  2. They will exceed their projected win total.

Typically, this has been one of the more accurate forecasting tools in terms of strength of schedule. Yet, it feels like when your quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, forecasting simply doesn’t apply.

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Colts will face NFL’s fourth-easiest strength of schedule in 2023

The Colts have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule in 2023.

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The Indianapolis Colts will be looking to turn things around under a new regime, and there’s a chance they have an easier path to do so based on the strength of their schedule in 2023.

We already know the Colts’ opponents for the upcoming campaign so we can calculate both ways of looking at a team’s strength of schedule. Though flawed, the most common process is looking at a team’s list of opponents based on their performance during the previous season.

For the Colts, they will have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule, courtesy of Bills Wire.

Rank Team Record Win Pct.
1 Philadelphia Eagles 161-123-4   .566
2 Miami Dolphins 158-127-2   .554
3 New York Giants 157-129-2   .549
3 New England Patriots 156-128-3   .549
3 Dallas Cowboys 156-128-4   .549
6 New York Jets 155-129-3   .545
7 Buffalo Bills 155-131-2   .542
8 Washington Commanders 153-133-2   .535
9 Los Angeles Rams 152-133-3   .533
10 Las Vegas Raiders 150-136-2   .524
11 Arizona Cardinals 148-137-3 .  519
12 Denver Broncos 148-138-2   .517
12 Seattle Seahawks 148-138-2   .517
12 Los Angeles Chargers 149-139-0   .517
15 San Francisco 49ers 147-139-2   .514
16 Kansas City Chiefs 147-140-0 .  512
17 Cincinnati Bengals 146-140-2   .510
18 Chicago Bears 143-145-1   .497
18 Minnesota Vikings 143-145-0   .497
20 Detroit Lions 143-146-0   .495
21 Baltimore Ravens 138-147-2   .484
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 138-148-2   .483
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 135-148-4   .477
24 Green Bay Packers 137-151-1   .476
25 Pittsburgh Steelers 134-151-2   .470
26 Cleveland Browns 131-154-2   .460
27 Carolina Panthers 130-157-2   .453
28 Tennessee Titans 127-157-4   .448
29 Indianapolis Colts 124-162-2   .434
30 Houston Texans 123-163-2   .431
31 New Orleans Saints 122-164-3   .427
32 Atlanta Falcons 119-167-3   .417

Teams undergo massive changes every offseason so it’s somewhat of a flawed process to base a team’s strength on the previous season. So another way to look at it is through projected win totals—another somewhat flawed process.

According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Colts still have the fourth-easiest schedule based on projected win totals. So either way, the result remains the same.

Part of this is due to the fact that the Colts finished with just four wins in 2022. So a portion of the schedule includes teams who finished in third place in their respective divisions just as Indy did.

With a rookie quarterback, expectations should be tempered. However, the perceived easier strength of schedule could lend its way to a smoother transition for a team that introduced 12 rookies via the draft.

The 2023 schedule will be announced at 8:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 11.

Broncos will face NFL’s 12th-hardest strength of schedule in 2023

The Broncos will face the NFL’s 12th-hardest strength of schedule in 2023 based on their opponents’ 2022 records (.517).

Dates and times for 2023 NFL schedule will be announced on Thursday, but we already know what opponents the Denver Broncos will face this season.

Based on 2022 records, the Broncos will face the 12th-hardest strength of schedule in 2023. The teams Denver will play this fall went 148-138-2 last year, good for a combined winning percentage of .517.

This is, of course, an inexact science because rosters have changed since last year so 2022 records aren’t a perfect indicator of how good or bad teams will be in 2023. Another (still flawed) measurement for calculating a team’s strength of schedule is using opponents’ projected win totals for 2023.

Using the projected win totals of their 2023 opponents as the measurement, Sharp Football Analysis has the Broncos with the 13th-hardest strength of schedule in 2023. Fortunately, the Kansas City Chiefs (third-hardest), Las Vegas Raiders (fourth-hardest) and Los Angeles Chargers (seventh-hardest) all have tougher schedules, as least according to the projected win total projections.

Here is the NFL’s complete strength of schedule for 2023, based on records from the 2022 season.

Rank Team Record Win Pct.
1 Philadelphia Eagles 161-123-4   .566
2 Miami Dolphins 158-127-2   .554
3 New York Giants 157-129-2   .549
3 New England Patriots 156-128-3   .549
3 Dallas Cowboys 156-128-4   .549
6 New York Jets 155-129-3   .545
7 Buffalo Bills 155-131-2   .542
8 Washington Commanders 153-133-2   .535
9 Los Angeles Rams 152-133-3   .533
10 Las Vegas Raiders 150-136-2   .524
11 Arizona Cardinals 148-137-3 .  519
12 Denver Broncos 148-138-2   .517
12 Seattle Seahawks 148-138-2   .517
12 Los Angeles Chargers 149-139-0   .517
15 San Francisco 49ers 147-139-2   .514
16 Kansas City Chiefs 147-140-0 .  512
17 Cincinnati Bengals 146-140-2   .510
18 Chicago Bears 143-145-1   .497
18 Minnesota Vikings 143-145-0   .497
20 Detroit Lions 143-146-0   .495
21 Baltimore Ravens 138-147-2   .484
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 138-148-2   .483
23 Jacksonville Jaguars 135-148-4   .477
24 Green Bay Packers 137-151-1   .476
25 Pittsburgh Steelers 134-151-2   .470
26 Cleveland Browns 131-154-2   .460
27 Carolina Panthers 130-157-2   .453
28 Tennessee Titans 127-157-4   .448
29 Indianapolis Colts 124-162-2   .434
30 Houston Texans 123-163-2   .431
31 New Orleans Saints 122-164-3   .427
32 Atlanta Falcons 119-167-3   .417

The 2023 schedule will be announced at 6 p.m. MT on Thursday, May 11.

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NFL Research says Saints have the second-easiest projected strength of schedule

NFL Research says the Saints have the second-easiest projected strength of schedule in the league, but every other NFC South team ranks right there with them:

Let’s start with the good news. Per the NFL Media Research Department, the New Orleans Saints are going into the 2023 season with the second-easiest strength of schedule around the league — their opponents having combined for a 122-164-3 record last year. There’s no excuses for Dennis Allen and Derek Carr to not find success this season.

Now the bad news. All four NFC South teams rank in the ten easiest strength of schedule projections, with the Atlanta Falcons slotting in ahead of the Saints to face the weakest lineup in the entire league. The Carolina Panthers are just a little behind with the sixth-weakest slate of opponents. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers round out the group with the eleventh-easiest schedule, based off of last year’s standings.

It goes to show that all four of the teams in the division are in a rough spot. The Panthers are rebuilding around rookie quarterback Bryce Young and a brand-new coaching staff. The Falcons have been very active in the free agent market this year and they’ve surrounded second-year passer Desmond Ridder with a lot of weapons, but they still need to prove their investments were worth the price (and that Ridder can get this team where it wants to go). And the Buccaneers are pretty clearly going into the tank while absorbing some massive dead money charges, with only Baker Mayfield as a viable option under center.

There’s a very real scenario where the Saints meet their potential and run away with the division title. That has to be the expectation this year. But many of the issues that plagued them in 2022 could be problems again in 2023. Injuries devastated the depth chart. Allen is still their head coach after wilting in critical moments. Pete Carmichael Jr. is still the offensive play caller after his performance inspired little confidence. The coaching staff has as much work to do in building credibility with fans as the players on the roster.

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New Orleans Saints predicted to face the easiest strength of schedule in 2023

The New Orleans Saints are predicted to face the easiest strength of schedule in 2023, thanks to what looks like (on paper) a very weak NFC South:

There won’t be any excuses for the New Orleans Saints in 2023. Head coach Dennis Allen has another year under his belt, he got his quarterback in Derek Carr, and the Saints have the easiest strength of schedule around the league, per NFL analyst Warren Sharp, based off projected win totals from sportsbooks.

The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers aren’t far behind at Nos. 2 and 3, which gets to the root of the issue: the Saints and their divisional rivals benefit from playing in the NFC South, where at least one squad (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who slot in at No. 13) has already punted on 2023.

If the Saints are going to reach the playoffs and end their two-year postseason drought, they’ll need to be more competitive in these divisional matchups. They were swept by the Buccaneers and Panthers last season, though they thankfully took care of business against the Falcons. Here’s New Orleans’ record against their NFC South neighbors over the last six years:

  • 2022: 2-4
  • 2021: 4-2
  • 2020: 6-1 (lost to Buccaneers in playoffs)
  • 2019: 5-1
  • 2018: 4-2
  • 2017: 5-2 (defeated Panthers in playoffs)

We’ll see how accurate this ends up being, and whether the Saints can take advantage of what looks like a weak slate of opponents. Last offseason Sharp had the Saints ranking 14th in strength of schedule, with the actual result falling at 18th after some unexpected teams climbed the rankings. That could very well happen again if one or two teams in the NFC South are better than anticipated.

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Seahawks tied for 12th-toughest strength of schedule in 2023

Looking ahead, the Seahawks’ schedule for next season is about average in difficulty compared to the rest of the league.

There’s only one game left to play in the NFL’s 2022 season. Once the Eagles and the Chiefs decide this year’s Super Bowl champion, we’ll be moving on to the 2023 season.

Looking ahead, the Seahawks’ schedule for next season is about average in difficulty compared to the rest of the league.

Seattle’s 2023 opponents went 148-138-2 this season (that’s a 0.517 win %), tying them with the Broncos and the Chargers for the 12th-toughest strength of schedule in the league.

They won’t have to face the Chiefs but the Seahawks will host the Eagles (14-3), visit the Bengals (12-4) and will play the 49ers (13-4) twice as usual.

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Revisiting some of Mike Brey’s local media day comments

Do you think Mike is regretting any of these preseason quotes?

Back in October, Fighting Irish Wire was lucky to attend Notre Dame’s media day for South Bend outlets. [autotag]Mike Brey[/autotag] spoke with the assembled reporters before the players entered the room, and every answer he gave was a clue into the workings of his team. The atmosphere was an optimistic one as the Irish were coming off a couple of NCAA Tournament wins in the spring. Why couldn’t it happen again with all of these older players returning?

Well, the Irish have reached a crossroads much sooner than they would have liked. They are 8-7 and have lost their first four ACC games, tying with Louisville for last in the conference. The fun of last March has given way to frustration and bafflement as to how things have gone so wrong. Even most of the nonconference victories have not been very satisfying, and there is no reason to think this season will last beyond the ACC Tournament.

So how have some of Brey’s preseason words held up? Let’s take a look: