Tag: strength of schedule

Where does Dolphins’ 2024 schedule rank among NFL’s toughest?

Here’s how Miami’s 2024 schedule ranks among the league’s toughest.

The Miami Dolphins were expected to have one of the toughest schedules in the league this past year, as their 2023 opponents had the second-highest winning percentage the year prior.

Now, as we flip the page and look to 2024, the Dolphins have a much easier road ahead of them. They have the seventh-easiest schedule in all of the NFL next season, with their opponents finishing with a .488 winning percentage in 2023.

Unfortunately for Miami, they’ll also play 10 teams that finished the 2023 season with a winning record. While the Dolphins had a solid record this past year, they struggled to beat winning teams, so this could be a problem for them again in 2024.

A lot of things can change between now and when these games kick off, but the Dolphins can’t take a light schedule easily. They need to attack every game like it’s an elimination game because we’ve seen just how important it is for the aqua and orange to play home games at Hard Rock Stadium.

Ranking all 32 teams (including the Seahawks) by 2024 strength of schedule

Here’s how all 32 teams rank in strength of schedule for the 2024 season.

The Seattle Seahawks had a pretty brutal road in the 2023 NFL season. Not only are they sharing a division with the best team in the NFC and another team that’s been to the Super Bowl twice in the last five years, they had a run in the middle of the season when they were rightfully underdogs several games in a row. While they bounced back from that horrific string of matchups and almost made the playoffs, the damage had been done and they fell short.

Looking ahead, things should be significantly easier next season. After finishing third in the NFC West this year the Seattle will be facing an easier slate of opponents. Here’s how all 32 teams rank in strength of schedule for the 2024 season.

Geno Smith takes heat on Twitter for throwing 3 Pro Bowl interceptions

Where does the Lions strength of schedule for 2024 rank?

Lions have the 11th-hardest strength of schedule for 2024 based on opponent’s records in 2023

For the first time in decades, the Detroit Lions will be the reigning divisional champions in 2024. Winning the NFC North for the first time means many things, but among them is the prospect of playing a first-place schedule next season.

The exact sequence of the schedule isn’t known yet; the NFL releases that in a few months. But we’ve known since the regular season ended which teams the Lions will play and whether those games are at home or on the road.

Based on the 2023 records of those teams, the Lions will have the 11th-hardest slate in 2024. The Lions opponents for 2024 finished 2023 with a collective win percentage of .509. Playing in the NFC North, where the last-place Bears and Vikings both finished 7-10, doesn’t help. Drawing first-place opponents in those two crossover games also inflates the records.

The full list of 2024 strength of schedule based on opposing records in 2023 can be found at Bills Wire.

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Ranking all 32 teams (including the Saints) by their 2024 strength of schedule

Ranking all 32 teams (including the New Orleans Saints) by their 2024 strength of schedule, from toughest to easiest:

The New Orleans Saints had an easy schedule on paper in 2023 but weren’t able to do much with it. They’ll have another shot at it this season as they have the easiest schedule in the league.

A big reason for that ranking is the fact that the NFC South was as weak as it was last season, which includes the Panthers having the worst record in the league. In addition to the NFC South, the Saints also face the NFC and AFC West.

Here is every team ranked by their strength of schedule in 2024, based on their opponents’ combined records during the 2023 season according to pro football researcher Ivan Urena, from toughest to easiest:

Broncos to face NFL’s 13th-easiest strength of schedule in 2024

The Broncos are set to face the NFL’s 13th-easiest strength of schedule in 2024 (.495).

We don’t know dates and times for the Denver Broncos’ 2024 schedule yet (that will be announced in May), but we do know all of the team’s 2024 opponents.

Based on records from the 2023 season, the Broncos will face the 13th-easiest strength of schedule in 2024 (.495). The Los Angeles Chargers (.478) are the only team in the AFC West with an easier SOS (sixth). 

Elsewhere in the division, the Kansas City Chiefs (.502) have the 16th-easiest SOS. The Las Vegas Raiders (.512) will face the NFL’s eighth-hardest SOS in 2024. 

The toughest opponents on Denver’s 2024 schedule based on 2023 records are the Baltimore Ravens (13-4), Cleveland Browns (11-6) and Chiefs (11-6).

Last year, the Broncos had the 12th-hardest strength of schedule (.517) and the team went 8-9. Denver will aim to improve on that record in 2024 when the club faces a schedule that looks easier on paper than last year’s slate.

Here’s a look at every team’s SOS for the upcoming season.

Once again, the Saints have the easiest strength of schedule going into 2024

Once again, the Saints have the easiest strength of schedule going into 2024. But Dennis Allen’s team has yet to show that matters:

This might sound familiar: the New Orleans Saints are going to enjoy the NFL’s easiest strength of schedule once again in 2024, after having played the weakest slate of opponents in 2023. They’re tied with the division-rival Atlanta Falcons with a 2024 strength of schedule at .453 (131-158). We’ve previewed their full list of opponents here.

But how much does this matter? Saints head coach Dennis Allen couldn’t guide his team to a division title or even a playoff berth despite facing so many bad teams and backup quarterbacks this season. The quality of opponents might not be a big deal when the team is poorly coached and underperforming.

Still, the Saints did finish the 2023 campaign with a winning record (by a single game, admittedly, at 9-8), and internally they’re looking at that as reason for optimism. And frankly they aren’t entirely wrong to do so. Derek Carr finally hit his stride in the final six weeks of the season and led the league’s best scoring offense down the stretch. If the Saints can carry that momentum into 2024 and start strong, maybe it can buoy them to greater success while addressing their weaknesses in the offseason.

Playing in such a vulnerable division helps. All four NFC South teams rank inside the five easiest schedules of 2024. And they’re all mired in mutual mediocrity. Both the Falcons and Carolina Panthers will be introducing new head coaches this year, and it’s still uncertain whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a sure thing at quarterback in Baker Mayfield.

But this projection of an easy schedule might not be what it appears. On top of that, the Saints are going to match up with eight teams who made the playoffs in 2023. They went 1-5 against this year’s playoff teams. And a new head coach can turn a bad organization around in a hurry (just look at what DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud have accomplished with the Houston Texans). New Orleans will kick off with teams led by first-year head coaches in at least seven games in 2024.

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Cowboys defense standing tall, but the gauntlet ahead is toughest in NFL

The Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been challenged much this year, but they now face the toughest offensive opponent schedule in the NFL. From @ReidDHanson

Through four weeks, the Cowboys defense has answered the bell. Dan Quinn’s unit is currently ranked second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate in 2023. Their pass coverage is tops in expected points and the defensive unit overall is second in total takeaways.

Few will argue they are one of the best, if not the best, in the entire NFL this season. Aside from a few lapses in run defense, they’re a complete unit, with depth and star power throughout. All of this will be put to the test in coming weeks.

Based on future strength of schedule, things are about to get much more difficult for the Cowboys defense. For as worthy as their opponents have been in the first four weeks, they’re about to face a murderer’s row of offenses.

Starting off in Week 5 against San Francisco, the Cowboys defense will be facing off against the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.

The 49ers are the second-ranked offense in the NFL, with the Chargers coming in just two spots behind in fourth. Following those two matchups, Dallas takes on the eighth ranked Rams and the 10th ranked Eagles, giving them a four-game stretch against top-10 offenses (all EPA numbers per rbsdm.com).

After battling the seventh-ranked Seahawks in their post-Thanksgiving affair, the Cowboys defense faces the Eagles once again, followed by the No. 3 ranked Bills and No. 1 ranked Dolphins. That’s yet another four-game stretch against top-10 offenses.

Given the dominance of the Dallas defense this season it’s understandable if they feel confident taking on the best. But lest we forget, the Cowboys have only played one top-10 offense this season and that team had little issue beating the Dallas defense (Arizona is ranked No. 9).

The Cowboys’ three wins this season have all come against bottom-five offenses. It’s safe to say they haven’t been remotely tested this year.

That’s all about to change.

One key statistic could portend a hot streak for Chiefs

This key statistic could be a sign that the #Chiefs are due to win several games in a row.

The Kansas City Chiefs managed to get their first win of the 2023 season in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars after dropping their first game against the Detroit Lions.

Kansas City is squarely in the middle of the pack in the NFL ahead of Week 3 action, but one thing will work in the Chiefs’ favor over the next six games: the abysmal combined record of their opponents.

Over the next six weeks, Kansas City will face teams that have, at least for now, a combined record of 1-11. The New York Jets are the only team that has secured a win, which came in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills in overtime.

Wins don’t come easy in the NFL, and the Chiefs will still have the same target on their backs as defending Super Bowl champions, but if ever there was an indication that a team might go on a hot streak, this shocking statistic is it.

2023 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2023?

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
GB 28.3 6.5 -21.8 GB 10 31
PIT 25.7 10.7 -14.9 PIT 7 28
CLE 21.2 18.4 -2.8 CLE 2 20
TB 19.5 12.5 -7.0 TB 5 24
MIN 16.1 7.1 -9.0 MIN 9 27
NO 14.3 8.0 -6.3 NO 8 23
KC 10.0 29.6 19.6 KC 1 6
BAL 9.5 1.8 -7.6 BAL 14 25

Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers – The Packers were saddled with one of the worst running back schedules last year, but Aaron Jones was still the No. 6 fantasy back while Dillion fell from No. 22 to No. 28. Jones turned in another solid year as a rusher and added a career-best 59 catches while Dillon handled almost the same touches as 2021, but wasn’t as effective. The departure of Aaron Rodgers throws everything into question, but at least Jones and Dillion won’t have the schedule working against them.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – In his rookie season, Harris faced the No. 4 easiest schedule for running backs and ended up as the No. 3 fantasy back thanks in part to his 74 catches. When he suffered a major decline in schedule strength down to only No. 28, he ended up as the No. 14 fantasy back while the Steelers adjusted to life without Ben Roethlisberger. Harris inherits yet another major shift in schedule strength this year, back up to one of the more advantageous slate of games.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – The Browns are consistently in the Top-5 in rushing stats  and have the upgrade in passing with a full season of Deshaun Watson for 2022. Chubb ended as the No. 5 fantasy back anyway, with a career-best 302 carries for 1,525 yards. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt with no real upgrades and just Jerome Ford to play the complementary role. Chubb’s a safe bet for another stellar year that may not be quite as busy, but could be even more effective.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As of this writing, Leonard Fournette has not signed with anyone, so he could return. The Buccaneers are entering a new era without Tom Brady and relying on a new offensive scheme under first-year OC Dave Canales. Chase Edmonds is new and yet already proven to be just the back half of any committee. The second-year rusher White is the heir apparent to the starting role after just 129 carries as a rookie with only a 3.7-yard average. Another back may still be acquired but at least White is situated with a better situation and schedule than he experienced last year.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
CIN 6.9 -9.2 -16.1 CIN 22 29
BUF 3.3 -17.0 -20.3 BUF 24 30
WAS 1.2 0.0 -1.2 WAS 18 18
LAR 1.2 1.2 0.0 LAR 15 17
DET 0.3 12.0 11.7 DET 6 13
MIA -4.2 -29.6 -25.5 MIA 30 32
CHI -4.6 -7.7 -3.1 CHI 21 21
TEN -10.6 17.4 28.0 TEN 3 2
JAC -12.0 2.1 14.2 JAC 13 11
CAR -19.0 -20.7 -1.7 CAR 26 19
NYJ -19.3 0.0 19.3 NYJ 17 7
DEN -19.5 2.5 21.9 DEN 11 5
HOU -19.9 -11.3 8.6 HOU 23 15
SF -22.2 2.4 24.6 SF 12 4
IND -22.3 -3.1 19.1 IND 19 8
LAC -22.6 15.4 38.0 LAC 4 1

This middle tier says that the schedule shouldn’t be notably bad or good from 2022, so the expectations shouldn’t change in regard to current year opponents. The notable unchanged include Miami facing the No. 30 schedule after battling the No. 32 last year. Derrick Henry (3 vs. 2) and Austin Ekeler (4 vs. 1) again enjoy top ranked schedules.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ARI -23.9 -7.3 16.5 ARI 20 10
PHI -24.2 -28.6 -4.4 PHI 28 22
SEA -24.9 -33.0 -8.0 SEA 32 26
ATL -25.0 -21.1 3.9 ATL 27 16
NE -26.1 0.4 26.5 NE 16 3
LV -38.0 -19.8 18.2 LV 25 9
DAL -41.2 -29.2 11.9 DAL 29 12
NYG -42.2 -32.8 9.4 NYG 31 14

As it works out, most of the worst swings are just teams that faced average schedules last year, dropping down to face one of the worst. An impact to be sure, but at least no backfield suffers a freefall from the best to the worst schedule.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – Barkley looked to face a bad schedule in 2022 when he seemingly inherited one of the worst schedules but it ended up not quite so bad as it played out and he managed to stay healthy for the first time since his stellar rookie season. But it is back to yet another tough slate of opponents based on last year’s stats. Barkley has already proven to be better than the effects of a bad schedule anyway, and the offense appears to be on a very positive track between HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – Like Fournette in Tampa Bay, there is a chance that Ezekiel Elliott re-signs with the Cowboys at a reduced rate (and assumedly workload as well). But Pollard parlayed a fine fourth season into a Top-10 finish among fantasy backs and forced the Cowboys to rethink their backfield. The Cowboys spoke to wanting more rushing this season which is nearly impossible given that their backfield handled an NFL-high 506 carries in 2022. And the only replacements for Elliott are Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and the diminutive Deuce Vaughn. The Cowboys have faced average schedules the last few years, so this downgrade comes at an interesting time with backfield roles changing.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – Like Barkley, the Raiders schedule looked very tough entering 2022 but Jacobs excelled in the first season under HC Josh McDaniels as one of the most productive backs in the NFL. It helped that he went from a previous high of only 273 rushes to 340 carries last year. There’s a contentious contract situation that could be involved and a quarterback situation that is changing. That alone spells some risk, and the schedule won’t be an advantage even if he somehow repeats his 393 touches from last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – The Patriots offense went without OC Josh McDaniels but that meant a heavy reliance on second-year Stevenson, especially as a receiver (69 receptions). That allowed him a Top-10 finish after only ranking No. 48 as a rookie. The offensive scheme is changing again this year with Bill O’Brien as the new coordinator but the Pats appear likely to repeat the usage of Stevenson. The schedule downgrade from what was one of the best down to only average will have an impact, but much of what Stevenson did was related to his receptions, and that should insulate himself from any dramatic decline in fantasy points.

SEC Strength of Schedule: How does Alabama’s rank in 2023?

See where Alabama’s 2023 SEC football schedule ranks among others in the conference.

The 2023 season is an important one for the Crimson Tide, which looks to return to the College Football Playoff after a two-loss 2022 regular season. The games on the schedule are not easy, but Alabama will certainly try to run the table.

According to CBS Sports’ Barrett Sallee, the Tide have the fourth-toughest schedule in the SEC for the 2023 season. Florida has the most difficult, while Georgia has the easiest of all 14 teams.

“The Crimson Tide have a Week 2 showdown with Texas in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, which could be one of the games of the year,” writes Sallee. “The phrase ‘Texas is back’ has been a running joke for more than a decade, but the Longhorns nearly upset Alabama in Austin, Texas, a year ago. Alabama can’t let them get revenge, otherwise the season could get sideways. The Tide have nine straight games to start the season — a streak that concludes with the massive rivalry game against Tennessee. They finish with the road game vs. Auburn, and we all know how wild things can get inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.”

As Sallee mentioned, there are some very tough games against worthy opponents in 2023. Most of those matchups are home games for Alabama, which will likely work in the Tide’s favor. However, it’ll all come down to what goes down on the field.

Taking on Texas in Bryant-Denny Stadium will be an amazing environment, but it’s definitely a game Tide fans must be nervous about. Sure, Alabama won last year in Austin, but that was with Bryce Young, Will Anderson, Jahmyr Gibbs and others. Not to mention, the Longhorns were without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for most of the game.

If Nick Saban and Alabama wants to make a run at another national championship, 2023 would be an amazing year to do it. Proving to the rest of the country that the program is still capable of reloading and not rebuilding would be the perfect exclamation point on the year.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to follow Alabama football as the 2023 offseason progresses.

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Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow AJ Spurr on Twitter @SpurrFM.