Run defense could decide the winner of Super Bowl LVIII between Chiefs and 49ers

Run defense will be a crucial aspect in Super Bowl LVIII between the Chiefs and 49ers — in fact, it may ultimately decide the game.

Well, the Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five years, which is pretty insane. And in Super Bowl LVIII, they’ll face the San Francisco 49ers franchise they beat 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV, overcoming a 20-10 third-quarter deficit to do it.

These two teams are decidedly different than they were four seasons ago. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan had quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in a 1973 Bon Griese hair shirt for most of that postseason, because Shanahan knew full well that when you put the game in Jimmy G’s hands… well, you didn’t generally want to do that. Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel were San Francisco’s primary rushers in that game, because the 49ers hadn’t yet made their team-defining trade with the Carolina Panthers for Christian McCaffrey. Add in a second-year quarterback in Brock Purdy who can actually hit his weight in the NFL, and this offense is far more to Shanahan’s preferences than that one was.

As for the Chiefs, there’s no more point-per-minute stuff. Tyreek Hill is out of the picture, and most of Andy Reid’s most explosive passing plays with him. The Chiefs got back to the big dance with a highly uneven receiver group, Travis Kelce finding the fountain of youth at the right time, and a Steve Spagnuolo defense that now sets the tone. There’s also the efforts of second-year running back Isiah Pacheco, who generally runs at your defense as if your defense owes him money.

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So, a point of discussion now, as it really wasn’t in that last Super Bowl between these two teams, is how the two run defenses will fare. Based on the tape and the tendencies, I would argue that the team winning that battle may well come away with the Lombardi Trophy.

Let’s dive into it.

Panthers fans react to Christian McCaffrey, Steve Wilks making Super Bowl LVIII

Are Panthers fans rooting for CMC, Wilks and the Niners?

A few old friends took the next step towards football immortality.

Last night, Christian McCaffrey, Steve Wilks and the rest of the San Francisco 49ers topped the Detroit Lions and clinched themselves an NFC championship. Both once a part of the Carolina Panthers organization and beloved by its fans, the two—just a season after their departures—are now set for Super Bowl LVIII.

Here’s how those fans are reacting to their win:

NFC Championship: The good and bad from the 49ers’ comeback win over the Lions

Looking at all the good and bad from the 49ers’ thrilling comeback win over the Lions in the NFC Championship game.

For the second straight week, the San Francisco 49ers used a thrilling second-half comeback to advance to the postseason. However, on Sunday, their comeback helped secure not only a win but also a ticket to the Super Bowl.

After a rough first half, the 49ers found themselves trailing by 17 points at halftime to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship. However, a strong second-half performance from Brock Purdy, some drops from the Lions and questionable decisions from Dan Campbell, the 49ers surged to a fiery comeback on their way to a 34-31 win in the NFC championship.

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Before the 49ers prepare for their date with the Kansas City Chiefs in Las Vegas, here’s a look at all the good and bad from the 49ers’ 34-31 win over the Lions in the NFC championship.

This post originally appeared on Niners Wire! Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

Steve Wilks posts appropriate message after 49ers’ NFC title win

Former Panthers interim HC Steve Wilks posted an appropriate psalm following the 49ers’ NFC championship win.

Appropriately enough, the San Francisco 49ers found some gold in them thar hills of Charlotte, N.C.

The newly-crowned NFC champions are now headed to Super Bowl LVIII after last night’s historic comeback victory against the Detroit Lions. And a big part of that win can be credited to their defensive coordinator and former Carolina Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks, who posted this interesting psalm:

After firing then-head coach Matt Rhule, the Panthers turned to Wilks—who, of course, led the team to the doorstep of an improbable NFC South title to close out the 2022 campaign. But despite a swell of support—from players, pundits and fans alike—the Charlotte native was passed over for the full-time gig in favor of Frank Reich.

Wilks, however, would go on to find some greener grass.

He helped the 49ers overcome a 17-point deficit at the break on Sunday, nearly orchestrating a second-half shutout of the explosive Detroit offense en route to the win.

So, yeah, you could probably say he’s currently on to something better.

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Former Panthers Christian McCaffrey, Sam Darnold, Steve Wilks headed to Super Bowl LVIII

Christian McCaffrey, Steve Wilks and Sam Darnold are now NFC champions.

A few old friends are about to play on the biggest stage in all of professional sports.

On Sunday night, the San Francisco 49ers completed an improbable comeback to top the Detroit Lions and capture this year’s George Halas Trophy. And leading the charge for the newly-crowned NFC champions was none other than former Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.

The All-Pro rusher and Offensive Player of the Year favorite recorded a game-high 132 yards from scrimmage. He rushed for 90 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries and reeled in four passes for 42 more yards in the 34-31 victory.

McCaffrey, who was traded by the Panthers in the middle of the 2022 campaign, is now headed for the first Super Bowl appearance of his career. Oh, and he’s not going alone.

Joining McCaffrey is former Panthers interim head coach and 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who nearly shut out Ben Johnson’s high-powered offense in the second half of the contest. Wilks’ orchestration helped San Francisco overcome a 17-point halftime deficit, the largest such comeback in Conference Championship history.

The Charlotte, N.C. native took over for former head coach Matt Rhule last season—after the Panthers’ Week 5 loss to (oddly enough) the 49ers. Despite getting the team to the doorstep of the playoffs and garnering a swell of support for the full-time gig, the organization moved on from Wilks last January.

So, congratulations to McCaffrey, Wilks and, of course, quarterback Sam Darnold.

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Every HC in Carolina Panthers franchise history

Dave Canales is now the seventh full-time HC in Carolina Panthers history.

A new era of Carolina Panthers football is about to begin.

The team has officially hired Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales as their head coach, ending the second such search in as many seasons. He is now the seventh full-time head coach in franchise history and the 10th overall to assume the position.

Here, with the new guy included, is every head coach that has led the sidelines for the Panthers:

Ravens, 49ers have the advantage of defenses that can do anything… and everything

The Ravens and 49ers are the one-seeds in the playoffs, and they both have defenses without specific tendencies. That’s not a coincidence.

It’s probably not a coincidence that the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers — the two one-seeds in the 2023 NFL playoffs — have defenses without a specific coverage type. In today’s NFL, with more formational and schematic concepts on offense, if you go out on the field without some things to mess up the opposing quarterback with different things, you’re left with an execution-based defense, and there’s very little margin for error if that’s the case.

The Cleveland Browns discovered that in their wild-card loss to the Houston Texans. In that 45-14 Houston win, the Browns stuck with their usual plan, to their direct detriment. C.J. Stroud had demolished single-high coverage all season long, and the Browns had run a higher rate of single-high in the regular season than any other defense. Cleveland decided to stay there in this game, and Stroud completed 12 of 16 passes for both of his touchdowns. On none of those 16 attempts did the Browns throw any kind of late movement at Stroud. It was line ’em up, and let’s go.

Browns’ refusal to adapt on defense cost them dearly against C.J. Stroud

When the Texans face the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday in the divisional round, Stroud will be tested in ways he certainly wasn’t last week. The Ravens do not have a specific coverage type. This season, they’ve run single-high coverage on 46.4% of their snaps, and two-high on 53.3% of their snaps. It’s been Cover-3, Cover-4, Cover-1, and Cover-6 in that order. You don’t know what you’re going to get from snap to snap, they do all of it well, and they’re very adept with coverage switches. 

The Ravens have made it very clear that the Stroud they’re dealing with now is a much more evolved than the Stroud that tried to navigate it all in his regular-season debut. The best way to counter that evolution is to make Stroud work through different coverage concepts. Mike Macdonald’s defense has no problem with that.

The Ravens know they’re dealing with a different C.J. Stroud this time around

On this deep incompletion against the Ravens in Week 1, Stroud had to manage a couple of things. First, Baltimore threw a six-man blitz at him with defensive back Kyle Hamilton off the edge, edge defender Odafe Oweh dropping into coverage, and linebacker Roquan Smith coming from the second level. And pre-snap, the Ravens showed a defined single-high look before moving to Cover-2. Brandon Stephens joined safety Marcus Williams as the second two-high defender. The combination of pressure and coverage must have made Stroud feel as if he had 13 or 14 defenders arrayed against him, and a near-interception was the result.

The 49ers, who play the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, are another amorphous coverage defense.They’ve played 50% single-high this season, and two-high 50% of the time. It’s Cover-3, Cover-4, Cover-1, and Cover-2 in that order. The 49ers flip to a bit more single-high on third down, but as is the case with the Ravens, they play what works for them and they don’t change a lot from a systemic point in a situational sense. 

Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been as good as anybody playing his position in the second half of the season, but even the best quarterbacks can be made uncomfortable when faced with the right concepts in concert. In Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford, the 49ers got an interception by disguising their intentions. Stafford is a 15-year NFL veteran with as developed a sense of what defenses will do as any quarterback you’ll ever meet, but here, Steve Wilks’ defense won the day.

Stafford would have 2-Man coverage to deal with post-snap, but that wasn’t the look pre-snap. With a single-high safety, and linebacker Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw close to the line of scrimmage, Stafford probably thought he’d have something easy over the middle of the field. This was a four-man rush in which the 49ers plastered Stafford’s receivers all over the field, and cornerback Deommodore Lenoir jumped Stafford’s backside slant for the pick.

No matter the quarterback you’re facing, you have a better chance of beating him if your defense is creative enough to throw as many different looks at him as possible, with the discipline to have everyone together on their assignments. The Ravens and 49ers each have this on lock, and again, it’s probably not a coincidence that the two best overall teams in the Final Eight can say that about themselves.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into both defenses, and how they’re able to switch things up at such a high level.

You can watch this week’s episode of “The Xs and Os,” featuring all the most important matchups of the divisional round, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to “The Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

Steve Wilks: Slowing Packers QB Jordan Love starts with stopping the run

The #49ers have a plan to slow down red-hot Packers QB Jordan Love … but will it work?

There aren’t many quarterbacks playing better than Packers QB Jordan Love. After an up-and-down start to the year, Love has stabilized significantly and over his last nine games he’s thrown for 2,422 yards with 21 touchdowns and only one interception. His mobility and big arm make him a threat to take over any game, and slowing him down is a tall task for the 49ers defense and their coordinator Steve Wilks.

Wilks on Wednesday in his press conference talked about how the team might slow down the Packers’ young signal caller. Given all of his physical gifts it won’t be easy to simply bottle him up, so Wilks pointed to stopping the Packers run game first.

“Well, I think the number one thing is we have to try to stop this run to try to make them one-dimensional,” Wilks said. “They’re very effective running a ball. I think it just opens up the play action. That’s where you see him being extremely effective in taking the shots down the field and finding an open receiver. So, that’s number one. Then again, we’ve just got to try to mix things up on him a little bit to give him something to think about and figure out where he needs to go with the ball.”

There weren’t a lot of areas where Love struggled this year. He was dynamite on play action though.

Pro Football Focus gave Love the 10th-highest grade overall on play action throws this season. He completed 72.4 percent of his play action passes, averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, and tossed 11 touchdowns against just three interceptions.

Those numbers are stellar, especially up against his non-play action stats. On straight dropbacks Love’s completion rate dips to 61.9 percent, his YPA plummets to 6.6, and he posted 24 TDs with 8 INTs.

Stopping the run isn’t enough to make play action ineffective. Packers running back Aaron Jones is an extremely talented player who the 49ers will need to account for regardless of how productive Green Bay has been on the ground. A good RB forces defenses to respect the play fake, which moves defenders out of throwing lanes and allows for easier completions.

Wilks’ point about making the Packers one-dimensional is the key, but they have to do that via game script. Winning on first down and getting an early lead are two quick ways to push Green Bay into obvious passing situations where play action becomes a less effective means of bending defenses to an offensive play caller’s will.

This, of course, will be the 49ers’ plan. Given how Love is playing though it may not matter. He’s been excellent in virtually any situation over the last half of the season. Pushing Green Bay into a one-dimensional version of its offense would be a good start though, and then the 49ers’ defensive success may just come down to whether they can win individual reps.

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The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Previewing the divisional round of the playoffs

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys preview all the big matchups in the NFL’s divisional round.

And then, there were eight! It’s time for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. and Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, are here to get you ready for the most interesting matchups that could decide who advances to the conference championships.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: The Week 1 game between these two teams doesn’t mean a lot, because the Ravens were dealing with C.J. Stroud in his rookie debut, and Stroud is an alien at this point. The Ravens are aware, and here’s how they can counter the Texans’ outstanding defense. Also, both of these teams have a ton of great, underrated talent on defense.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: The Packers have seen desperately-needed defensive improvement over the last three weeks, but is that enough to stop Kyle Shanahan’s offense? And how will Jordan Love do against a San Francisco defense that doesn’t really have one type of staple coverage?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: When these teams played in Week 6, Baker Mayfield had his worst game of the season. But this is a different Buccaneers team than it was then, and there are ways for Mayfield to engineer a different result. The problem for the Bucs is that Jared Goff has proven that he’s ready for whatever Todd Bowles throws at him.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have far too many injuries on defense, and Patrick Mahomes is finding winning concepts with at least one receiver, so this will have to be a Josh Allen game if the Bills are to advance.

You can watch this week’s episode of “The Xs and Os,” featuring all the most important matchups of the divisional round, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to “The Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

Head coaching candidates cannot afford to wait on Commanders

Could new GM Adam Peters request permission to speak with additional head coaching candidates this week?

Time stands still for no man.

The Commanders (like all of us) are being reminded of that ageless truth again this weekend.

Washington may have Friday morning sealed the deal to hire 49ers assistant general manager Adam Peters. Yet, there is no time to take it easy and celebrate.

Other NFL head-coaching prospects were not sitting by their cell phones, idle, waiting for the Commanders to call. They cannot afford to wait, as there are only so many openings, and as usual, there are more applicants than there are openings.

For example, 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks took advantage of his team’s open bye week during this first weekend of the NFL playoffs.

Consequently, Wilks reportedly interviewed earlier Saturday with the Chargers about their head coaching job, and then later in the day, he interviewed regarding the Falcons job.

Mike MacDonald, defensive coordinator for the Ravens, was also said to have gotten in an interview with the Chargers on Saturday.

Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan also interviewed today with the Falcons concerning their head coaching position.

Meanwhile, former Washington Redskins linebacker Antonio Pierce who served this season as the Raiders interim head coach following the firing of Josh McDaniels is now considered to be the leader to become the next head coach of the Raiders. Apparently, some significant Raiders players have expressed their desire for Pierce to become the next head coach.

Could Washington expand its pool of potential head coaching candidates now that it has a GM?

Next week will be a very busy week for the Commanders new general manager as he talks with candidates to replace Ron Rivera, who was fired Monday. Yet, with all that has transpired in just this one week, doesn’t it seem like much more than only a week has passed since Rivera was fired?