Tag: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates odds predictions pick betting line spread

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (55-70) and Pittsburgh Pirates (55-69) open up a 3-game set at PNC Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 5-2

The Cardinals snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 7-3 victory over the New York Mets Sunday. They remain 13 games out in the NL Central and 10 out of an NL Wild Card in a season that looks increasingly unlikely to lead to October. The Cardinals are going to get a glimpse of the future with newly acquired LHP Drew Rom making his major league debut Monday. Rom came over from the Baltimore Orioles in the trade for RHP Jack Flaherty.

The Bucs have lost 3 of 4 and 6 of 10. In what was once a promising start to the season, they are now 12 1/2 out in the Central and 9 1/2 out of a Wild Card. The Pirates are better at home with a 29-32 mark as opposed to 26-37 on the road.

Cardinals at Pirates projected starters

LHP Drew Rom vs. LHP Bailey Falter

Rom is making his major-league debut. He was 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 97 IP with two Triple-A Norfolk and Triple-A Memphis.

  • Was 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 18 K in 11 IP at Triple-A Memphis since being acquired by the Cardinals

Falter (0-7, 4.86 ERA) makes his 11th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 53 2/3 IP with the Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K Tuesday against Mets
  • 1 career start vs. Cardinals: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K on July 1, 2022

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Cardinals at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+125) | Pirates +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100| U: -120)

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Cardinals at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Cardinals 2

Moneyline

Neither team is particularly good against left-handed pitching. The Cards are 14-18, and the Pirates are 17-21. Pittsburgh has had St. Louis’ number this year though, and the Pirates swept a 3-game set at home against the Cardinals in June. The Pirates have also gone 7-3 against the Cards over the last 10. Rom’s strikeout numbers are impressive, but he doesn’t throw very hard. There are questions as to how that will translate to the majors.

Take the PIRATES (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

These teams play a lot of 1-run games. Three of the 7 meetings this year and 5 of the last 10 have come down to a single run. The Cardinals are 10-23 in 1-run games and the Pirates are 15-13. I personally would just stick to the Pirates on the ML, but if you want some insurance, take PIRATES +1.5 (-150).

Over/Under

This number is inflated because of questions about the quality of pitching Monday. The Over is just 3-5-2 in the last 10 meetings between these sides, St. Louis is 3-7 O/U over the last 10, and Pittsburgh is 6-4.

I’ll take the UNDER 10.5 (-120).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (28-27) welcome the St. Louis Cardinals (25-32) to PNC Park Friday for a 3-game series. First pitch in the opener is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Cardinals beat the Kansas City Royals 2-1 Tuesday, splitting the 2-game series. St. Louis is 4-4 in its last 8 games and the Cards are 13-16 on the road this season.

The Pirates are 12-13 at home. They are 4-6 over their last 10 games and coming off a 9-4 win over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. Pittsburgh is 4 games ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central; the Pirates are 1/2 game back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

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Cardinals at Pirates projected starters

RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Roansy Contreras

Flaherty (3-4, 4.81 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 58 innings.

  • Coming off a 7-inning 2-1 win over the Cleveland Guardians on May 27; has pitched 7 innings in 2 of his last 3 starts
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in his last 5 starts despite him allowing 17 ER in those appearances

Contreras (3-4, 4.33 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 52 innings.

  • Pirates have lost 5 straight games in which he’s pitched, and are 4-6 in games he has appeared this season
  • Pitched 2 innings with 0 ER and a K in a 6-3 loss to the Seattle Mariners on Sunday

Cardinals at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Pirates +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cardinals at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 6, Cardinals 5

Moneyline

TAKE PIRATES (+115).

St. Louis is 1 of 8 MLB teams this season to have a sub-.500 win percentage as favorites, going just 15-19 when favored this season. Couple that with Flaherty, who hasn’t pitched well as of late, and the plus-money Pirates look like a good play.

Pittsburgh is 14-13 after a win as well while St. Louis is 9-15 following a victory. Take the PIRATES (+115).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Pirates here, and there is better value taking them on the moneyline than on the run line given the juice.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (-105).

The Cardinals are 28-28-1 O/U this season and 5-6 O/U in their last 11 games. In Flaherty’s last 4 starts against a team with a winning record, the Over is 4-0, so he hasn’t performed well against top sides.

The Pirates are 3-1 O/U in their last 4 games as well. Contreras isn’t their ace either, so both pitchers are prone to giving up runs. Take the OVER 9.5 (-105).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (81-57) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (50-86) Friday in the 1st game of a 3-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cardinals lead 8-2

The Cardinals’ bullpen reared its inconsistent head in Thursday’s 11-6 drubbing by the Washington Nationals, who split the 4-game series with the Cards. St. Louis is still 7-3 in the last 10 games and 21-9 in the last 30.

Pittsburgh has lost 4 of 6 as they were blanked 10-0 Wednesday by the New York Mets. The Bucs are 3-7 in the last 10 and a miserable 7-23 in the last 30 games. The Pirates are a little bit better at home with 27 wins and just 23 on the road. They have one of their bright prospects on the bump today.

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Cardinals at Pirates projected starters

RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Roansy Contreras

Mikolas (11-10, 3.32 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.

  • Coming off 8 shutout IP with 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K against the Chicago Cubs Sept. 4
  • Has made 2 starts vs. Pirates this year: 1-0, 1.46 ERA, 12 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Contreras (4-4, 3.41 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 74 IP.

  • Last 2 starts: 11 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 4 BB and 12 K
  • June 15 vs. Cardinals: 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Cardinals at Pirates odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (-117)| Pirates +1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Cardinals at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Pirates 2

Money line

The Cards’ offense has been pretty productive with 6 games of at least 5 runs in the last 10. Contreras was good against them in his 1st start, but the Cards got to him in the 5th inning, which muddied his line. I look for a competitive game. If the Cards get him out of the game by the 7th, they’ll get to the Pirates’ pen, which is 4th-worst in baseball with a 4.64 ERA. The Cards’ ML is too expensive, but the CARDINALS FIRST 9 INNINGS (-165) is at a tolerable rate.

Run line/Against the spread

Of the Cards’ 8 wins against the Bucs this year, 7 have been by 2 or more runs. St. Louis’ top relievers didn’t pitch Thursday and will be ready to go. However, Mikolas has gone into the 7th inning in 4 of 5 starts. Take the CARDINALS -1.5 (-117).

Over/Under

Even though the Cards have been scoring, they are just 4-5-1 O/U in the last 10 games. The Over is trending in this series at 4-1-1 the last 6 games. The number was steamed up to 8.5 this morning, and that’s just enough leverage for the Under to sneak by. LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-130).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (20-18) and Pittsburgh Pirates (16-21) meet Friday at 6:35 p.m. ET top open a 3-game series at PNC Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: St. Louis leads 2-1.

The Cardinals 7-6 at the New York Mets Thursday. St. Louis dropped 3 of 4 games in that series and is just 1-5 over its last 6 road tilts.

The Pirates are back at home after dropping 2 contests in a 3-game set at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh enters this series in a team batting slump: the Bucs own a mere .461 OPS over their last 7 games.

Cardinals at Pirates projected starters

RHP Adam Wainwright vs. RHP Zach Thompson

Wainwright (4-3, 3.15 ERA) owns a 1.23 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 40 IP in 7 starts.

  • Has authored a 0.25 ERA over his last 5 starts vs. Pittsburgh.
  • Current Pirates batters own an aggregate .306 OPS against him.
  • Owns a 2.37 ERA over his last 3 starts.

Thompson (2-3, 5.47 ERA) has logged a 1.52 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 26 1/3 IP in 6 starts and 1 relief outing.

  • Clocked a 3.24 ERA in 75 IP last season.
  • Has yielded just 3 hits over 11 scoreless innings across his last 2 starts.

Cardinals at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL): Cardinals -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Cardinals at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Cardinals 4

Money line

Wainwright has historically been a much better pitcher at home. Thompson has, too: he owns a 3.26 ERA over 58 career innings at home.

The Cards have never seen Thompson, and they are a club better suited for facing lefties. They also generate more right-vs.-right plate appearances than the average club, and that plays into a Thompson advantage.

The Redbirds went into extra innings in their Thursday setback at Citi Field, and their bullpen is not in great shape heading into this series.

BACK THE PIRATES (+125), but consider waiting out a better price in early Friday betting.

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Run line/Against the spread

Same calculus as above. I will take PIRATES +1.5 (-135)…but will expect a better price at some point Friday.

Over/Under

No significant lean either way. PASS.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (66-62) and Pittsburgh Pirates (47-83) wrap up their four-game series at PNC Park Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.27 ERA) makes his 20th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 93 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed more than 2 ER only once in his last seven starts while posting a 5-1 record and 2.45 ERA. The Cardinals are 6-1 in those games.
  • Was expected to work out of the bullpen for the remainder of the season after being activated from the 10-day injured list Aug. 22, but after one relief appearance (2 2/3 IP, 0 ER) is moving back to the starting rotation.

Pirates RHP Wil Crowe (3-7, 5.46 ERA) makes his 20th start and his 21st appearance. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 89 IP.

  • Owns the fourth-highest FIP of any pitcher with over 80 IP.
  • Is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA over 14 2/3 IP with 15 H, 9 BB and 8 K across three starts against St. Louis.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

St. Louis 5, Pittsburgh 2

Money line (ML)

Sunday marks the conclusion of the 19-game season series between the Cardinals and Pirates with St. Louis holding a 12-6 lead, including an 8-1 mark in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates have struggled to hit left-handed pitching all season, although in one previous game against Kim they did find some success. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against southpaws.

St. Louis has struggled a bit recently with a 5-5 record over its last 10 games but remains just 3.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot in the NL. This is a game the Cards are going to need to pick up if they hope to keep pace.

BACK ST. LOUIS (-170).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Only two of the Cardinals’ 12 victories over the Pirates were by a single run.

I anticipate the Cards getting to Crowe early enough to see a sizable dose of the Pirates bullpen. Pittsburgh’s relievers are in the bottom five in ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% through the second half of the season.

With that said I do have some concerns about Kim after the Bucs were able to get to him in his previous start against them, and Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in the last six games in this series.

That leaves me with a “LEAN” toward ST. LOUIS -1.5 (-105).

Over/Under (O/U)

There are simply too many trends pulling in different directions for a comfortable pick on this total.

Both pitcher’s O/U records in starts is near .500, both teams situational trends pull in both directions and despite not being able to hit left-handed pitching the Pirates have got to Kim before.

PASS on the total.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The  St. Louis Cardinals (64-61) are still holding on to slim playoff hopes as they begin a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-81) Thursday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas (0-1, 1.00 ERA) makes his third start. He has allowed 5 H and 3 BB with 8 K through 9 IP.

  • Mikolas squared off against Keller and the Pirates last week in his first big-league start in three months. He surrendered 2 unearned runs in 5 innings while allowing 2 hits and recording 5 punch-outs.
  • He has recorded a 3.82 ERA and 7.9 K/9 with just 2 HR allowed in six career games at PNC Park.

Pirates RHP Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.35 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.82 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 66 2/3 IP.

  • Keller had been struggling heading into his last start but held the Cardinals scoreless across 5 IP while recording 6 K.
  • He has a 7.82 ERA over 38 IP at home this season. While a .424 BABIP has worked against him he hasn’t done himself any favors with a 5.4 BB/9.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Cardinals 5, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

Keller had one of his best starts of the year against the Cardinals last time out but he has been very inconsistent throughout the season with more bad starts than good ones.

Mikolas’ velocity was way down in his first start of the season in May and it was encouraging to see it back up to typical levels in his most recent outing. However, we’ll need to see more in order to be fully confident in his skills and this is a pretty hefty price to pay on the road.

PASS on the money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Walks have been a major issue for Keller this season but he has been better lately in issuing no more than 1 free pass in three of his last four starts. He can’t be counted on to spin another gem as he did in his last start against St. Louis but the Pirates should at least keep this one close.

Side with the PIRATES +1.5 (-125)

Over/Under (O/U)

Neither offense has been performing at a high level lately. The under is 4-0-1 in the last five games for the Cardinals and 8-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 11 contests.

That being said, Mikolas is tough to fully trust after such a long layoff and Keller has had his fair share of blowups this season. A repeat of last week’s pitchers duel between these two seems unlikely and this total is just a little too low.

A small play on OVER 8.5 (-122) is the way to go.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (56-56) and Pittsburgh Pirates (41-72) meet Wednesday for the middle game of a three-game NL Central series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adam Wainwright is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 10-6 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 139 2/3 IP over 22 starts.

  • Current Pittsburgh bats own an aggregate .665 OPS and .108 isolated power against him.
  • Has a 2.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last four road starts, which includes facing the hard-hitting San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves and one start at Coors Field.

RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starter for the Pirates. In 17 games (16 starts) this season, Crowe is 3-6 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 75 2/3 IP.

  • Coughed up 3 HR among 8 hits and 7 runs (3 earned) in 4 IP Thursday at the Cincinnati Reds in his last start.
  • Faced St. Louis twice this season, allowing 7 ER in 10 IP.
  • Current Cardinals bats own an aggregate 1.031 OPS against him.

Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (-107) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Cardinals 5, Pirates 4

Money line (ML)

St. Louis won 4-1 Tuesday. A Redbirds pitching staff (LHP J.A. Happ and three relievers), which had a 4.76 ERA over its previous 14 games, held the Pirates to just one base hit in the win.

It was the Bucs’ sixth consecutive loss. They have scored just 2.00 runs per game on a .585 OPS during the skid.

With the Pittsburgh bullpen struggling in the second half and with a St. Louis ‘pen that should be struggling of late (the Cardinals have benefited from a .245 batting average on balls in play in the second half), the Pirates look to be on the value side here. However, look to the run line to maximize that value.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Pittsburgh batters have faced a tough slate of pitchers in recording a .668 OPS. That’s not to say the Pirates are a .700-OPS-type club, but they feature an offense capable of more.

TAKE PITTSBURGH +1.5 (-115).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both clubs have some situational bad-luck tilt to their offensive numbers. St. Louis owns a .276 BABIP when leading off innings and Pittsburgh owns a .268 BABIP with runners in scoring position.

The Cards and Pirates fit as teams sort of “waiting to be selected in Overs” when other conditions are ripe. Add in a hot, humid, wind-out night in Pittsburgh and BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-130) in this one.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (14-12) tangle with NL Central rival Pittsburgh Pirates (12-13) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis handled Pittsburgh in the series opener 7-3 yesterday for a fourth straight victory over the Pirates dating back to last season.

Season series: Cardinals 1-0.

RHP Jack Flaherty is making his fifth start for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K’s in St. Louis’s 5-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Pirates: 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA (57 IP, 12 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts.

RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starter for the Pirates. Cahill is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA (19 IP, 15 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 across 4 starts in his first season with the Pirates.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB’s and 2 K’s in Pittsburgh’s 6-2 win at the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances.

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Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Pirates +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

These money line prices feel sketchy. The Cardinals (-145) has their undefeated Ace on the mound against a Pirates (+120) team that has been one of the laughingstocks in MLB.

Flaherty has never lost to Pittsburgh, is off to a phenomenal start this season and St. Louis is 21-9 against the Pirates since 2019.

However, Flaherty’s advanced pitching numbers suggest he’s going to come back down to Earth a bit. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, fly ball rate and ground ball to fly ball rate are all worse than the MLB average.

Also, opposing hitters have a .225 BAbip vs. Flaherty, 72 percentage points higher than the league average.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Flaherty out in the 19th percentile in chase%, 37th percentile in whiff% and 39th percentile in expected wOBA.

Lastly, the Cardinals’ lineup is terrible against right-handed pitching; St. Louis hitters have the fifth-lowest wRC+, is 23rd in wOBA and the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate against righties.

Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES (+120) for a quarter unit if at all because Pittsburgh’s run line is much better value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PIRATES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit at the current price point, but I’d wait until closer to the first pitch before placing my bet on this game because I think the Pittsburgh price gets cheaper throughout the day.

The Cardinals definitely have the edge in the starting pitcher matchup but, the Pirates’ bullpen is top-6 in K-BB%, WHIP, xFIP and SIERA, so Pittsburgh could cut into any lead Flaherty turns over to the St. Louis ‘pen.

Over/Under (O/U)

I’ve already outlined why Flaherty is due for a bad outing, but, also Cahill is the least productive when pitching on six or more days rest.

Cahill’s ERA and WHIP are higher than any other rest split and his winning percentage is the lowest (8-17 overall record) compared to other rest splits.

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter unit only because I prefer the Pittsburgh side more than the total.

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