The St. Louis Cardinals (64-61) are still holding on to slim playoff hopes as they begin a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-81) Thursday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas (0-1, 1.00 ERA) makes his third start. He has allowed 5 H and 3 BB with 8 K through 9 IP.
- Mikolas squared off against Keller and the Pirates last week in his first big-league start in three months. He surrendered 2 unearned runs in 5 innings while allowing 2 hits and recording 5 punch-outs.
- He has recorded a 3.82 ERA and 7.9 K/9 with just 2 HR allowed in six career games at PNC Park.
Pirates RHP Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.35 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.82 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 66 2/3 IP.
- Keller had been struggling heading into his last start but held the Cardinals scoreless across 5 IP while recording 6 K.
- He has a 7.82 ERA over 38 IP at home this season. While a .424 BABIP has worked against him he hasn’t done himself any favors with a 5.4 BB/9.
Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Cardinals 5, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
Keller had one of his best starts of the year against the Cardinals last time out but he has been very inconsistent throughout the season with more bad starts than good ones.
Mikolas’ velocity was way down in his first start of the season in May and it was encouraging to see it back up to typical levels in his most recent outing. However, we’ll need to see more in order to be fully confident in his skills and this is a pretty hefty price to pay on the road.
PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Walks have been a major issue for Keller this season but he has been better lately in issuing no more than 1 free pass in three of his last four starts. He can’t be counted on to spin another gem as he did in his last start against St. Louis but the Pirates should at least keep this one close.
Side with the PIRATES +1.5 (-125)
Over/Under (O/U)
Neither offense has been performing at a high level lately. The under is 4-0-1 in the last five games for the Cardinals and 8-1-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 11 contests.
That being said, Mikolas is tough to fully trust after such a long layoff and Keller has had his fair share of blowups this season. A repeat of last week’s pitchers duel between these two seems unlikely and this total is just a little too low.
A small play on OVER 8.5 (-122) is the way to go.
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