Tag: St. Louis Cardinals betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (19-16) host the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals (21-14) Tuesday to begin a three-game set at 7:40 p.m. ET in American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis swept the Colorado Rockies this past weekend following a four-game split with the New York Mets. The Cardinals haven’t lost a series since dropping two of three vs. the Washington Nationals April 19-21.

Milwaukee beat the Miami Marlins in back-to-back games to win a three-game set this past weekend. The wins snapped a six-game losing skid, which included a four-game sweep at the Philadelphia Phillies

Season series: Brewers lead 2-1.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is on the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 4 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP of a 7-inning game with 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K vs. the Mets Wednesday.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 across 2 starts.
    • Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .172/.250/.241 slash line, 7/3 K/BB rate, 0 HR and 1 RBI.

RHP Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA (32 IP, 12 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 14.9 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, in 4 IP with 5 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Phillies.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.48 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 3 starts and 4 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 62 at-bats with a .274/.357/.581 slash line, 17/6 K/BB rate, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Cardinals 2

Money line (ML)

There are a couple of reasons why I’m BETTING BREWERS (-125) for 1 unit. First, Milwaukee’s lineup is far more productive vs. left-handed pitching compared to righties while St. Louis struggles vs. right-handed pitching.

The Brewers are 27th in both wRC+ and OPS and 25th in wOBA against all pitching. However, vs. lefties, Milwaukee is fifth in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

Conversely, the Cardinals hitters against right-handed pitching rank in the bottom-10 lineups of wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate.

Second, Peralta is much more effective at home and has filthy stuff. For his career, Peralta has a 3.12 home-ERA (5.87 ERA on the road), 1.06 home-WHIP (1.46 WHIP on the road) and is 12-3 at home (7-6 in road games).

Statcast grades Peralta in the 97th percentile of K%, 92nd percentile of whiff%, 95th percentile of expected wOBA and 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Since the start of the 2020 season, Milwaukee has the worst run line record in division games (20-35 RL) and an 11-22 RL record as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (+100) for a half unit because, while I have more faith in Milwaukee’s lineup in this spot than St. Louis’ and Peralta has elite advanced pitching grades, Kim also has fantastic numbers vs. the Brewers.

I’d assume that whenever Kim turns this game over to the bullpen, St. Louis will be using right-handed relievers, which Milwaukee could have a tough time hitting.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (12-13) and St. Louis Cardinals (18-13) close out a four-game series Thursday afternoon (1:15 p.m. ET) at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 in 27 IP over 5 starts.

Walker allowed just 5 ER through his first 21 IP this season. He allowed 4 ER in a 6-inning stint in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies. Walker has dominated in two career starts at Busch Stadium with a .511 OPS allowed.

RHP John Gant is the projected starter for the Cardinals. He is 2-2 with a 2.16 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9 through 25 IP spanning 5 starts

Gant allowed just 1 ER on 6 hits in his last 11 IP. Albeit in a small sample, current Mets bats own a .460 OPS against him.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Mets at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mets 6, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

The Cardinals took Monday’s series opener 6-5. The two then split a Wednesday twin bill after a Tuesday rainout.

The surface numbers on both starters look to be overcooked. Analytic ERA measures (like xFIP and SIERRA) wouldn’t favor a lean on either and that nixes any value here.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

METS -1.5 (+135) is the likable side.

Peg the Redbird bullpen as perhaps being as overrated as any right now. Their 3.87 ERA is tamped down by a .243 batting average on balls in play and a low 5.5% rate of fly balls landing as home runs. Add in a double-digit mph batter’s wind in the forecast and the fact Mets relievers get a lot more ground balls than their St. Louis counterparts.

Also, the top end of the Cards ‘pen figures to be much more fatigued than that of the Mets.

Over/Under (O/U)

On a fade of both starters and the Cardinal bullpen — and a severe one in all three cases — TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (11-12) and St. Louis Cardinals (17-12) meet Tuesday night for a 7:45 p.m. ET first pitch to continue a four-game set at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 2-2 with a 0.51 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 35 IP over 5 starts. DeGrom enters this game having allowed just 10 base runners over his last 21 IP.

RHP Johan Oviedo is the projected starter for the Cardinals. Oviedo has a 2.79 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 9 2/3 IP over 2 games. He allowed 3R on 3 hits and a walk in his last start (Thursday vs. Philadelphia). Oviedo is regarded as one of the Cards’ top 10 prospects.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Mets at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-115) | Cardinals +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mets 5, Cardinals 3

Money line (ML)

The Cardinals took Monday’s season opener, 6-5, and have won five in a row.

Peg the Cardinals as being a couple of games or so overcooked with their win-loss record. Righty pitching brings out the Mets’ best platoon splits, and that advantage carries into the later innings in this series because the St. Louis bullpen leans heavily to the right side.

Speaking of bullpens: Batted-ball analytics do not match up at all with the similar surface numbers the Cards (3.83 ERA) and Mets (3.63 ERA) have produced to date. St. Louis relievers have benefited from a .244 BABIP and a low rate of fly balls posting as round-trippers (4.7%). New York relievers have suffered through a .312 BABIP and a low left-on-base rate of 61.9%.

Back the Mets up to -200. PASS on the current tag, but deGrom is worthy of a play on a price drop.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

New York is 6-6 in one-run games, but the price is attractive enough and the fade lean is becoming enough on the Cards to warrant BACKING THE METS -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under (O/U)

Mixed signals pop up in the analytics (lean against St. Louis pen, plays on the New York pen and the Cardinals offense). A slight overall lean on the OVER 6.5 (-110) is perhaps worth a partial-unit look.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (14-12) tangle with NL Central rival Pittsburgh Pirates (12-13) Saturday in Game 2 of their three-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis handled Pittsburgh in the series opener 7-3 yesterday for a fourth straight victory over the Pirates dating back to last season.

Season series: Cardinals 1-0.

RHP Jack Flaherty is making his fifth start for the Cardinals. Flaherty is 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K’s in St. Louis’s 5-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Pirates: 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA (57 IP, 12 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 9 starts.

RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starter for the Pirates. Cahill is 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA (19 IP, 15 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 across 4 starts in his first season with the Pirates.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB’s and 2 K’s in Pittsburgh’s 6-2 win at the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Pirates +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

These money line prices feel sketchy. The Cardinals (-145) has their undefeated Ace on the mound against a Pirates (+120) team that has been one of the laughingstocks in MLB.

Flaherty has never lost to Pittsburgh, is off to a phenomenal start this season and St. Louis is 21-9 against the Pirates since 2019.

However, Flaherty’s advanced pitching numbers suggest he’s going to come back down to Earth a bit. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, fly ball rate and ground ball to fly ball rate are all worse than the MLB average.

Also, opposing hitters have a .225 BAbip vs. Flaherty, 72 percentage points higher than the league average.

Furthermore, Statcast grades Flaherty out in the 19th percentile in chase%, 37th percentile in whiff% and 39th percentile in expected wOBA.

Lastly, the Cardinals’ lineup is terrible against right-handed pitching; St. Louis hitters have the fifth-lowest wRC+, is 23rd in wOBA and the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate against righties.

Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES (+120) for a quarter unit if at all because Pittsburgh’s run line is much better value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PIRATES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit at the current price point, but I’d wait until closer to the first pitch before placing my bet on this game because I think the Pittsburgh price gets cheaper throughout the day.

The Cardinals definitely have the edge in the starting pitcher matchup but, the Pirates’ bullpen is top-6 in K-BB%, WHIP, xFIP and SIERA, so Pittsburgh could cut into any lead Flaherty turns over to the St. Louis ‘pen.

Over/Under (O/U)

I’ve already outlined why Flaherty is due for a bad outing, but, also Cahill is the least productive when pitching on six or more days rest.

Cahill’s ERA and WHIP are higher than any other rest split and his winning percentage is the lowest (8-17 overall record) compared to other rest splits.

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter unit only because I prefer the Pittsburgh side more than the total.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (11-12) play the third game of a four-game set on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals (12-11) at Busch Stadium Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Vince Velasquez (0-0, 6.75) will make his second start of the season to go with 3 relief appearances. He has tossed a total of 8 innings with 8 hits and 9 walks allowed but with 13 strikeouts.

  • Allowing a 91.7 mph exit velocity with a .909 OPS in his limited action, including a 2 1/3 inning relief appearance against the Cards April 17.
  • Made his first start of 2021 at the Colorado Rockies Friday and held them to 2 earned runs over 4 innings with a no-decision in the Phillies’ 5-4 loss.

Cardinals RHP Johan Oviedo (0-0, 0.00 ERA) worked 4 2/3 scoreless innings of long relief in the Cards’ 9-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers April 11. He allowed 2 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts.

  • Made 5 starts in 2020 with a 5.47 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 while being charged with an 0-3 record.
  • Has allowed a 91.3 mph exit velocity and 51.1% hard-hit rate in his 29 1/3 innings of MLB work over the last two seasons.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

With neither swingman expected to go too deep into Wednesday’s start, we’ll make a contrarian play on the bullpen of the PHILLIES (-110).

While Philly’s relief corps ranks 29th in baseball with a 5.14 ERA, it’s 11th with a 3.96 xFIP and St. Louis is last with a 4.91 aggregate bullpen xFIP. The Phillies bullpen has been hurt by a .303 BABIP and 18.9% home run to fly-ball rate.

Trust in the progression toward the mean for the visitors with Oviedo inspiring little confidence in the home side.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Liking the Phillies to win outright in a close game, we can back the CARDINALS +1.5 (-165) for 1 run of insurance in the event of a loss. It’ll partially serve as a hedge against picking Philadelphia to win outright.

Over/Under (O/U)

Lean to the OVER 8.5 (-115) as a fade of both converted starters.

Both teams received at least 6 innings from each of their first two starters in this series, so the bullpens are well-rested, but neither unit is overly impressive at its best.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (11-11) host the Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) in Game 2 of their four-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philadelphia won Game 1 of this series 2-1 thanks to a gem thrown by RHP Zack Wheeler. He surrendered just 1 hit and 1 earned run with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-1.

RHP Zach Eflin gets his fifth start of the season for the Phillies Tuesday. He is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA (26 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 0.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in Philadelphia’s 6-5 win over the San Francisco Giants Wednesday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 across 2 starts.

RHP Carlos Martinez gets the start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA (21 IP, 14 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K in St. Louis’ 1-0 loss at the Washington Nationals.
  • Career vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA (35 IP, 15 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 over 5 starts and 4 relief appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

For me, this is a “trap spot” for the Phillies who definitely have an edge in the starting pitching matchup and, in fact, these two pitchers met April 16 in a game Philadelphia won 9-2.

Martinez leads MLB in losses and Eflin has a sub-3.00 ERA with the third-best walk rate of all starters with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

However, the market has steamed St. Louis’ money line up to -110 after this game opened with the Cardinals as slight home underdogs (-105). The reason is the expectation of Eflin’s regression back to the mean.

He has been lights out in high leverage situations with opposing hitters slashing .083/.154/.167 with just one hit and a .100 BABIP through 14 plate appearances.

Eflin had a quality start in allowing just 2 earned runs across 7 innings in his first start against the Cardinals, but he had a slightly flukey 87% left on-base percentage and St. Louis hitters had a 55% hard-hit rate.

BET CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Cardinals +1.5 (-175) are too expensive and I’m not confident enough in St. Louis with Martinez on the rubber to take a shot at the alternate run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-118) for a quarter unit since the weather forecast predicts nearly 15 mph winds out to left-center and if the Cardinals can chase Eflin early they’ll get to face a Phillies bullpen with the second-worst ERA in MLB.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (9-11) wrap up their three-game set with NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals (10-10) Sunday at Busch Stadium with a 2:15 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis looks to complete a three-game sweep of Cincinnati Sunday after taking the first two games of the series by a combined score of 7-4.

Season series: Cardinals 3-2.

RHP Luis Castillo makes his fifth start for the Reds. Castillo is 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.66 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K’s in Cincinnati’s 5-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 4-5 with a 4.70 ERA (69 IP, 36 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 in 12 starts.

RHP Jack Flaherty is on the mound for the Cardinals Sunday. Flaherty is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K’s in the Cardinals’ 12-5 victory at the Washington Nationals Monday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA (37 IP, 15 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 8 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cardinals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-190) | Cardinals -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

Sunday’s starting pitching matchup for Reds-Cardinals is a rematch of Opening Day where both pitchers got roughed up, but I picture the St. Louis lineup doing more damage to Castillo than Cincinnati’s vs. Flaherty.

Castillo got shelled for 10 runs (eight earned runs) by the Cardinals in his first start of the year. He had two walks, no strikeouts and allowed eight hits in Cincinnati’s 11-6 Opening Day loss.

Also, Castillo has three pitches in his arsenal—a fastball, slider and changeup—but, he has essentially ditched his slider after getting smacked around on Opening Day.

Castillo used the slider on 30.1% of his pitches and the changeup 24.7% of the time in his first start against the Cardinals, but for the year, Castillo is only throwing his slider 10.9% of his pitches and the changeup 41.3%.

These updates to his pitch arsenal might not have a good outcome for Castillo when facing St. Louis.

According to Statcast, the Cardinals’ two-four hitters (1B Paul Goldschmidt, 3B Nolan Arenado and C Yadier Molina) all have a positive run value facing changeups and each has a wOBA of at least .427. Molina didn’t play yesterday after leaving Friday’s contest due to a sore foot, and he might be questionable today.

BET CARDINALS (-130) for a three-fourths unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (+155) for a quarter unit since I like the starting pitching matchup more for St. Louis, and Cincinnati has one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Reds’ bullpen has the second-worst FIP, the fifth-worst left on-base percentage and the fifth-most home runs per nine.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7 (-120) for a one-fifth unit if at all because Flaherty gave up six earned runs on six hits (two home runs) vs. the Reds on Opening Day and the Over is 5-1-1 in the past seven Reds-Cardinals meetings.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (9-9) visit NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals (8-10) Friday for the first game of a three-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Reds have lost four straight games and two of their past three series with their losses coming against the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this week and the San Francisco Giants from April 12-14.

The Cardinals are 4-8 in their last 12 games and have dropped four straight series to the Washington Nationals (twice), Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers.

Cincinnati’s offense erupted when it took two of three games in the first series against St. Louis this season. The Reds outscored the Cards 27-18.

RHP Sonny Gray is on the hill for the Reds. He is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 1 start.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 6 K Saturday in Cincinnati’s 3-2 win over the Cleveland Indians.
  • Career vs. Cardinals: 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 across 5 starts.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim makes his second start for the Cardinals. Kim is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 2.00 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP with 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K in St. Louis’ 9-4 victory at the Phillies Saturday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-0 in 11 IP with a 0.00 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 in 2 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME CARDINALS (-110) because the “sharp” side of the market is backing St. Louis and I think Kim bounces back from a shaky first start.

According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the money wagered (“sharps”) is on the Cardinals while more than 60% of the bets placed (“average Joe”) is on the Reds. In sports gambling, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people.

Kim was filthy in his two starts against the Reds last season and, last season, Statcast graded Kim in the 84th percentile in both barrel% and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, if these starters turn the ball over to the bullpen in a close game, I have a lot more faith in St. Louis’ bullpen than Cincinnati’s.

The Reds bullpen is 3-4 with the second-worst FIP, fourth-lowest left on-base percentage and second-highest home run to fly ball ratio.

BET CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (+170) on the alternate run line for a quarter unit since the payout is very juicy and the last six Reds-Cardinals games were decided by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (+100) since the teams have a combined 22-13-1 O/U this season.

Like the money line section, the “sharp” side of the market is on the Under and the “average Joe” is on the Over. Also, I’m projecting a good outing from Kim.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (8-9) and Washington Nationals (6-9) wrap up a three-game series at Nationals Park with a 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch Wednesday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Carlos Martinez is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-6 with a 9.00 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 through 35 IP over 8 starts spanning the last two seasons. He allowed at least 3 ER in each of his three starts this season. He owns a Boeing ERA of 7.80 in 2021.

RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Over 2020-21, Scherzer is 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 through 86 1/3 IP in 15 combined starts. He has allowed just 1 ER in his last 13 innings of work. Current Cardinal bats own a whiff-laden .482 OPS against Scherzer.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cardinals at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Nationals -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-140) |  Nationals -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The Cards took the opener of this series 12-5 and the Nats responded with a 3-2 win Tuesday.

With some tilt toward some value in the St. Louis offense and just a tad in the fade-Scherzer column (or at least fade at this kind of price), there is a razor-thin lean toward the CARDINALS (+140). A tag of +150 or higher would make for some profit margin.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. A profitable Cardinals’ side is more likable on the money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Surface run production numbers for the Washington offense don’t match with the higher proficiency that shows in advanced metrics. St. Louis has solid scoring numbers, but even its offense is perhaps underperforming given how hard the Cards have been hitting baseballs this April.

The Redbirds’ .709 OPS is undercut by low batting-average-on-balls-in-play numbers in runners-in-scoring-position and lead-off situations.

With some fade action in Scherzer’s early-season 2.37 ERA and on both bullpens, there is a heavy Over lean to this game.

OVER 7.5 (-120) is one of the better plays on the board Wednesday.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (8-8) and Washington Nationals (5-9) play the middle contest of their three-game series at 7:05 p.m. ET Tuesday at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adam Wainwright is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 through 12 2/3 IP over 3 starts this season. Wainwright is facing the Nationals for a second straight game; he allowed 3 ER in 5 IP against Washington Wednesday. Current Nats bats own an aggregate .874 OPS against him.

LHP Patrick Corbin is the projected starter for the Nationals. Corbin is 0-2 with a 21.32 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and 9.9 BB/9 through 6 1/3 IP over 2 starts. The veteran southpaw started the season on the COVID-19 list and made his season debut April 10 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has allowed 15 ER in his two outings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Cardinals at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Nationals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-160) |  Nationals -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

St. Louis has been at its best against lefty pitching with a .934 OPS. Peg the Cardinals as having enough on the mound and some confidence at the plate coming off a 12-run outburst Monday.

BACK THE CARDINALS (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS, but for the sake of a rider on the above ML play, consider a Cardinals play if the tag approaches +160.

Over/Under (O/U)

Surface run production numbers for the Washington offense (3.6 runs per game) don’t match with the higher proficiency that shows in advanced metrics. St. Louis (5.2) has solid scoring numbers, but even its offense is perhaps underperforming given how hard the Cards have been hitting baseballs this April.

Neither starter engenders much confidence, and both bullpens have been filing average but ball-in-play deflated numbers. All the pitchers in Tuesday’s affair figure to be working against a batter’s breeze out to center.

The Over hit easily in a 12-5 Redbird win in the Monday opener. BACK OVER 9 (-120) in this one, too.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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