Analyzing the NFL’s Week 1 slate with picks and predictions for the top 5 player props.
It’s Week 1 and every team enters the season with a clean slate and dreams of playing in the Super Bowl (except Houston and Detroit). Every team has turned over its roster in hopes of finding the right combination to be a playoff contender. Below, we look at top 5 NFL player props for Week 1; visit SportsbookWire.com for all of our game breakdowns.
These are five players we think have prop bet numbers that can help bring you to the Week 1 pay window – some because they aren’t given the respect they deserve and others because the numbers are too daunting to meet.
Also see: 2021 NFL team win totals
Week 1 Prop Bet Payday picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook OVER 99.5 rushing yards (-114)
In four career Week 1 games, Cook topped 110 yards twice – both when playing non-division opponents (New Orleans and Atlanta). Minnesota’s offensive line has had its share of struggles the last few years, but Cook has found a way to be a dominant back despite the problems.
The 97.5 yards is a big number that might scare off a lot of bettors, but the Bengals had the 31st ranked run defense last season by yards per attempt and despite making some high-profile signings in the offseason, stopping the run is going to remain an issue for this defense. Cook’s history of starting strong continues here.
Take the OVER 99.5 (-114).
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Also see: Vikings vs. Bengals odds, picks and predictions
Seahawks WR DK Metcalf OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-130)
The Colts had the league’s second best run defense in 2020, which often forced opponents to give up on trying to pound the ball, so teams often threw much more often than they ran.
Seattle isn’t afraid to pass early and often and Metcalf is becoming one of the most dominant receivers in the game. The Colts cornerbacks are pedestrian when healthy and Xavier Rhodes is out this week. QB Russell Wilson could have a big day attacking this weakness and nobody makes mismatches like Metcalf.
Take the OVER 77.5 (-130).
Also see: Seahawks vs. Colts odds, picks and predictions
Bills QB Josh Allen UNDER 280.5 passing yards (-114)
The Steelers have a very good defense and, while they’re a significant underdog, it’s not because their defense can’t get the job done. They had the No. 2 defense in the league by yards per play despite a late-season collapse (again not the fault of the defense).
Allen is being viewed as an MVP frontrunner but during his breakout 2020 season, he played Pittsburgh at home and threw 43 times for just 238 yards. Allen had five games with 238 or fewer yards – all at home. Wait until he’s on the road to see the huge numbers.
Take the UNDER 280.5 (-114).
Also see: Steelers vs. Bills odds, picks and predictions
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Browns RB Kareem Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-114)
Sometimes when it comes to taking a yardage prop bet, you look at intangibles you don’t find on a stat sheet. Hunt led the NFL in rushing in 2017 as a member of the Kansas City Chief. Sunday will be his first career game against his former team.
The Browns are one of the most dominant run teams in the league and they like to mix-and-match Nick Chubb and Hunt. Chubb will likely get twice the number of carries, but revenge is a thing in the NFL and head coach Kevin Stefanski will likely give Hunt more chances than normal to make a statement to his former team.
Take the OVER 34.5 (-114).
Also see: Browns vs. Chiefs odds, picks and predictions
Falcons WR Calvin Ridley UNDER 87.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ridley has been an emerging star since he joined the league, but he always had the luxury of playing opposite Julio Jones, who typically commanded either the top cornerback or a safety sliding over to bracket him. Ridley was the No. 2 guy both in the offense and in the mind of the defense.
With Jones gone, opponents are going to give a lot more coverage to Ridley. The same has happened many times and too often the guy who thrived in single coverage has to adjust to the new attention he gets from defensive coordinators. It takes time, this is Week 1 and the Eagles won’t be shy about doubling him and making someone else do the damage.
Take the UNDER 87.5 (-114).
Also see: Eagles vs. Falcons odds, picks and predictions
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