Betting lines are much different this week than what they might have been if not for an insane Week 3.
The Buffalo Bills run an impossible 51 more offensive snaps than Miami (90-39), outgains the Dolphins by 272 yards, scored a butt-punt safety, had just one turnover, and held the ball for 40:40 of the 60 minutes – and lost.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost to an Indianapolis Colts team that couldn’t beat the Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars – two games they historically win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a lackluster home matchup with the Green Bay Packers that left both teams looking worse. Russell Wilson drowned out the boos of the home fans in Denver just in time to win. Monday Night Football was an insomnia cure with the Dallas Cowboys now 2-0 under Cooper Rush.
So many of the narratives and storylines heading into Week 3 were dropped on their heads, which left many bettors heading home instead of to the pay window. Normalcy needs to return.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 4
Despite the Dolphins being the last unbeaten team in the AFC, they’re getting very little respect on the point spread, where the Bengals are solid home favorites (4.5 points at -115 Dolphins, -107 Bengals). The key here is that Joe Burrow isn’t getting protected. He’s been sacked 15 times and many of his 15 rushing attempts are escapes, not RPOs. Getting 4-and-a-hook on a team with a legit defense works for me. Take Miami and 4.5 points (-115).
The Vikings are modest favorites in London (2.5 points at -125 Vikings, +100 Saints). The Vikings aren’t playing at a high level but have enough to beat this version of the Saints, who are hurt on the offensive line and have a QB willing to throw 50/50 balls that too often are picked off. Take the Vikings and lay the 2.5 points).
I was stunned when I saw the Over/Under (47.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under). I would have thought five points than this – the third-highest point on the Week 4 slate. Ideally, both teams want to run the ball and not leave winning or losing in the hands of their quarterbacks. What about that screams 30-23? Take the Under (-107).
The Chargers took it on the chin the day after Christmas last year and the hands of the Texans. At the time, the Chargers were 8-6 and controlling their own playoff destiny. Houston had scored nine or fewer points six times. The Texans won 41-29. The Chargers are a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -107 Chargers, -115 Texans). I believe there is a receipt coming for the Texans. Take the Chargers and lay the 5.5 point (-107).
Here we go again with the inflated Over/Under numbers. The Over/Under here (48.5 points at -115 Over, -107 Under) is behind only the Bills-Ravens (50.5). You have two teams that, when they’re playing their best, are run-heavy. Cleveland’s defense is legit and, if either team gets off to a 10-point lead, it will run on first and second down until it’s stopped. Take the Under (-107).
What a Rush! Coopermania is running wild in Dallas, but it’s the Cowboys defense that is making everything possible. The Cowboys are a modest home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Commanders, -102 Cowboys). I’m not convinced that Carson Wentz will fare any better against the Cowboys than he did against the Eagles. If your opponent can’t score 14 points, it doesn’t take a lot to cover the spread. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-102).
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As noted above, the Bills dominated Miami and still lost. I believe Buffalo is going to win this game, but the Bills are given a pretty significant number as a road favorite (3.5 points at +100 Bills, -125 Ravens). As always, the Ravens are the most banged-up team in the league, and the Bills will have enough of an answer for Lamar Jackson in the running game. Begrudgingly take the Bills and lay the 3.5 points (+100).
I still believe when all is said and done, if Derrick Henry stays healthy, the Titans win the AFC South. I have much less confidence in the Colts. The Colts are a solid home favorite (3.5 points at -122 Titans, -102 Colts). I think Tennessee can win this game outright. Giving away more than a field goal has my interest. Take the Titans plus 3.5 points (-122).
I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Jets on the road or the Steelers in general. However, these are the type of games Pittsburgh wins ugly. The Over/Under isn’t a shock (41.5 points at -110 for both), because neither offense has set the world on fire and both defenses have guys who make big plays. This won’t be a shootout. It will be about field position and field goals. Take the Under (-110).
The Jaguars are still being viewed as a “cute story” in 2022. Jacksonville’s defense is legit, and its offense is catching up. The Eagles are 3-0 and now have a multidimensional offense. Both teams have put up points, which is why the Over/Under is a little stiff (46.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). Two teams that were on the outside of the discussion of Super Bowl contenders are going to treat this like a playoff game. I see a lot of running and tempo control here rather than flinging and slinging. Take the Under (-108).
Two of the most brutal offenses in the league that have combined to score 11 touchdowns in six games … The Giants are favored in this improbable matchup of 2-1 teams (3.5 points at -125 Bears, +100 Giants). I can’t see either team blowing the other out unless there are defensive touchdowns in play, so I’ll take my chances with the team getting points. Take the Bears and 3.5 points (-125).
The Cardinals have been a huge disappointment, because they’ve been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter and 80-23 through the first three quarters. As a result, the Panthers are a slim, shady favorite (1.5 points at -108 Cardinals, -112 Panthers). The Cardinals desperately need to win this one and won’t get blown out early this time around. Take the Cardinals on the moneyline (-108).
I hate everything about this game. The Patriots are on life support for the season, and the Packers still haven’t found itself offensively. Green Bay is a massive favorite (9.5 points at -105 Patriots, -120 Packers). I don’t like a point spread that big, but I’m unconvinced that Patriots are capable of scoring 14 points without a defensive or special teams touchdown. I much more confident in Green Bay scoring 24. Take the Packers and lay the 9.5 points (-120).
The Raiders are 0-3 and angry. They were a playoff team last year and have a better roster now than they did then. The Broncos are a phantom 2-1, which is why the Raiders are small favorites (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -120 Raiders). This is the game that doesn’t define Denver’s season. It’s the one that has to define the Raiders’ season. Take the Raiders and lay the 2.5 points.
The Bucs defense has been unheralded for the stellar job it has done to date. The Bucs offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in the first half all season. Tampa’s defense has been able to overcome it. The Chiefs lost last week, but remain road (if the game is actually played in Tampa) favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). It’s never easy to bet against Tom Brady, but if he tries to get in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, he’s playing into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay the 1.5 points (-110).
The 49ers beat the Rams both times they met last season, but they played LA’s game. It became more up-tempo than San Francisco prefers. The Niners want to slow you down and grind out wins. The scores in last season’s meetings were 31-10 and 27-24. Both teams are willing to open things up, which makes the Over/Under a little unpalatable (41.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). The Rams are going to try to make this an up-tempo game. Win or lose, that’s all it takes. Take the Over at 41.5 points (-112).
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