Florida may have lost on Saturday to close out the regular season, but the Gators actually moved up the ESPN SP+ rankings this week.
Florida finished the 2023 college football season with a losing record, but the Gators are far from the worst football team in the SEC, according to ESPN’s Week 13 update to the SP+ rankings.
The Gators actually moved up two spots from No. 47 a week ago. ESPN Staff Writer Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, reminds us each week that it’s more about the play than the outcome of the game, which explains Florida’s climb to No. 45 overall.
“In a single sentence, (SP+) is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly said. “SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling.
“If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
Florida’s offense finished the season ranked No. 41 with a 30.2 rating and teh defense finished at No. 64 with a 26.9 rating. The special teams unit somewhat surprisingly finished the year inside the top 10 at No. 9 with a 1.8 rating.
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LSU is rising back up the ranks after winning its third straight game.
After a 62-0 win over Army, LSU is rising back up the ranks.
The Tigers sit at No. 15 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25, but according to Bill Connelly and ESPN’s SP+ metric, LSU could be one of the 10 best teams in the country.
That’s a significant jump after SP+ ranked LSU 18th last week. The offense is now ranked at No. 2, trailing only USC.
But it’s the defense that continues to make significant strides. The Tigers’ defense now sits at No. 47, up 19 spots from last week.
SP+ is meant to be forward-looking, so that’s good news for an LSU defense that’s looked like one of the worst in the country at times. If the group can play like a top-50 defense, the offense is good enough to carry LSU.
LSU’s next opponent, Alabama, also made a jump. The Crimson Tide are now at No. 3 in SP+ thanks to a defense that ranks fourth in the nation.
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The Florida Gators rose up six spots in this week’s edition of the SP+ rankings produced by ESPN.
The Florida Gators earned an enormous win this past Saturday night against the now-No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers and the national media is starting to show praise to the Orange and Blue.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks college football teams on a weekly basis using the SP+ format.
“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly wrote. “I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.”
After the week three victory at The Swamp, the Gators rose in the ranks to No. 30, just behind in-state neighbor UCF Knights.
Florida ranked at No. 36 in the post-week 2 rankings, so the stock is starting to rise now that the Gators have two solid wins under their belt.
The Gators will host the Charlotte 49ers this Saturday and will try to notch another win to extend a two-game win streak. The game starts at 7 p.m. EDT and will air on ESPN+.
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There is no betting line available for LSU’s home opener, but SP+ predicts a nearly 50-point margin.
Games between power programs and FCS teams can be difficult to handicap.
The better team will often show mercy and take its foot off the gas, but not always, as evidenced by Oregon laying 81 points on Portland State in Week 1, the most that program has scored in a game since 1936.
Often, sports books choose to stay away entirely rather than set spreads of 40 or more points. But ESPN’s SP+ model casts no such aspersions.
Proprietor Bill Connelly releases the model’s score predictions every week for every game, and SP+ predicts quite a wide margin for LSU’s home opener against an in-state FCS opponent in Grambling, for which there is not currently a betting spread available.
SP+ sets the projected margin at 48.5 points, and it has the Tigers ultimately winning the game 54-5.
Grambling isn’t likely to score five points exactly in this one, but you get the picture. Despite LSU’s struggles in the opening loss to Florida State, its home opener at Tiger Stadium on Saturday night shouldn’t even be close.
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The unbiased metrics also favor the Tigers entering the year. They rank No. 5 in the preseason Football Power Index from ESPN, as well, and that’s where the Tigers land according to ESPN’s SP+ Rankings.
LSU’s offense ranks 10th nationally, while the defense ranks 14th. Having both sides of the ball rank in the top 15 is a recipe for success, and the Tigers are projected to win 8.9 games despite the 11th toughest schedule.
Returning production weighs heavily into SP+, and while LSU was active in the transfer portal this offseason, the team still ranks 16th in terms of returning production, returning 70% from a year ago.
Most of that comes on offense, where LSU brings back 82% of its production (good for eighth nationally) while the defense brings back just 64%, a mark that ranks near the middle of the road at 51st.
LSU brings its offensive core back but will be relying on some new additions on the defensive side of the ball. Still, it’s clear to see why both the polls and metrics like the Tigers as we prepare to kick off the 2023 season.
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Florida comes in at No. 23 on the final preseason SP+ rankings update of 2023, but it’ll be a slugfest to stay in the top 25 all year.
The Florida Gators are No. 23 on the final SP+ rankings update of the 2023 preseason, but it will be tough to finish the season in the top 25 as Florida faces the toughest strength of schedule in the country.
Four SEC programs are ranked between Nos. 15 and 25 on the list: Texas A&M (16), Ole Miss (18), Florida (23) and Kentucky (24). The Wildcats face the easiest schedule, but it’s still the 13th strongest in the nation. All four teams will be competing for that unofficial fifth spot in SEC unless Alabama, Georgia, LSU or Tennessee crumble early.
Florida’s strength coming into the season is of course its offense, which received an offensive SP+ grade of 35.5 — the 25th-best number in the country. Defensively, Florida isn’t too bad. The Gators are ranked 41st on defense with an SP+ grade of 21.8 on that side of the ball.
Utah, Florida’s opponent for the season opener, is ranked No. 14 thanks to an elite offense. However, quarterback injuries could mean the Utes are playing below their peak capabilities.
Gators Wire will follow the SP+ rankings throughout the season and provide updates as Florida moves up or down.
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Which teams ranked highly in the post-spring SP+ rankings from Bill Connelly?
Determining which teams are among the best isn’t an exact science but there are key factors that go into the through process. ESPN pulls back the current a bit with their rankings. At least you get some idea as to what are the top factors.
Bill Connelly revealed his SP+ rankings on Thursday. His rankings take returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history into account for these rankings.
Teams just outside the top 10
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Oregon Ducks:
Dan Lanning and the Ducks missed out on the top 10 by 0.1 points in the SP+ rankings. They have the No. 4 offense but the No. 42 defense for the upcoming season. Bo Nix is looking for another huge year as he opted to return to college for a fifth season over going to the NFL.
Get more Oregon news, analysis, and opinions on Ducks Wire
Clemson Tigers:
Clemson is a team that has owned the ACC over the years but the rise of Florida State and North Carolina could challenge their supremacy in 2023. Clemson returns the No. 21 offense and the No. 11 defense. The defense features a linebacker duo that just might be the best in the nation.
Get more Clemson news, analysis, and opinions on Clemson Wire
Oklahoma Sooners:
The Sooners are coming off a down year after finishing 6-7 with a loss to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl. However, they do return the No. 6 offense led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The defense ranks No. 37 in the country and they need to get that side of the ball rolling. Of the seven losses, five game by one possession. Win a couple of those games, and their season looks a lot better.
Get more Oklahoma news, analysis, and opinions on Sooners Wire
Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
The Fighting Irish had plenty of ups and downs in year one of the Marcus Freeman era. They got a big win in the offseason when Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman committed to play for the Golden Domers. Avoiding losses to teams the caliber of Stanford and Marshall are key for the Irish’s return to the CFP discussion.
The Aggies are a team that have the talent, they just need to get results on the field. According to SP+, Texas A&M has the No. 2 returning defense in the country. Second-year quarterback Conner Weigman needs to bring the offense up a bit.
Get more Texas A&M news, analysis, and opinions on Aggies Wire
Wisconsin Badgers:
A new era is set to begin in Madison with former Ohio State linebacker and head coach Luke Fickell now running the show. He brought in an “Air Raid” offense with Phil Longo and SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai. They will join forces with one of the top Big Ten running backs, Braelon Allen.
Get more Wisconsin news, analysis, and opinions on Badgers Wire
You can view the full list from ESPN (subscription required). As far as the top 10 teams, we broke each one down.
LSU is one of just five teams to rank in the top 15 in both offense and defense.
The hype continues to roll in for LSU as it enters Year 2 under [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag].
After a 10-win campaign and a strong finish in the bowl game, the expectations are high in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are well-positioned at quarterback, [autotag]Malik Nabers[/autotag] is a budding star at wide receiver and several talented offensive linemen are back.
On defense, [autotag]Harold Perkins[/autotag], [autotag]Mekhi Wingo[/autotag] and [autotag]Maason Smith[/autotag] could give LSU one of the best front sevens in the country.
ESPN’s Billy Connelly released his first set of the 2023 SP+ rankings this week, where LSU placed seventh overall — 10th on offense and 14th on defense.
🪩 2023 SP+ PROJECTIONS 🕺
* You'll NEVER BELIEVE who's No. 1! * Bama starts out fourth??? #TheSkyIsFalling * The Pac-12 race could be fantastic * Kent State 😬 * Welcome to the party, @JSUGamecocks_FB and @BearkatsFB
Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama and LSU are the only five schools to rank top 15 on offense and defense. Florida State, who LSU is set to face in the opener, ranks 11th.
SP+ falls in line with most of LSU’s offseason rankings. It’s a statistical model, but most human power rankings had LSU in that five to ten range. It’s projecting LSU to make a jump based on returning production, especially on offense.
Taking into account returning production and incoming players, how does the Big 12 stack up in ESPN’s SP+ rankings for 2023?
2023 is already off to a hot start for the Oklahoma Sooners. They landed one of the best recruiting classes in the cycle and one of the best transfer portal classes this offseason as well.
Brent Venables and his staff have attacked Oklahoma’s weaknesses from the 2023 season and added players to help fill the void left by players departing for the NFL.
Now all there is left to do, is get to September and start playing games.
On paper, the Oklahoma Sooners should be improved from what they were last season. Even though they aren’t bringing back a ton of returning production, the pieces are there for 2023 to result in more success.
And that’s in large part to what they’ve brought in to help the defense. Legit difference makers like Dasan McCullough, Rondell Bothroyd, and Reggie Pearson specifically. Each has the experience and the ability to provide game-changing plays for Oklahoma’s defense, and each could be a week one starter when the Sooners play Arkansas State.
In Bill Connelly’s first SP+ Rankings for ESPN (ESPN+), the Oklahoma Sooners fared far better than what some might imagine, given the way 2022 went. Connelly looks at three factors to help inform his projections.
Returning Production: The Oklahoma Sooners ranked 77th in the nation and ninth in the Big 12 in returning production.
Recent recruiting, which includes transfer acquisitions for the first time, and gives more weight to the most recent classes. Oklahoma had the No. 8 class in the 2022 cycle and the No. 4 class in the 2023 cycle. Pretty good.
Recent success: This one is a bit of a wild card for Oklahoma. They had success prior to Lincoln Riley’s departure, and the first year of Brent Venables didn’t go well. Was 2022 the aberration year? We certainly hope so.
Taking all that into account, let’s check in on the Big 12 and see how they stack up in the first SP+ Rankings for the 2023 season.
Now the Super Bowl has come and gone, football is in hiatus until August when college football kicks off. Well, unless you’re going to watch the XFL or USFL that are scheduled to play into the early summer.
All 133 teams were ranked, but for this article, we will show those that cracked the top 25.
SP+ rankings are based on three main factors: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
Also, Connelly put a key reminder in the article about SP+:
A reminder on SP+: It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
