Tag: SP+ rankings

ESPN SP+ ranks the top college football teams for 2024

ESPN’s SP+ rating ranks the Texas Longhorns in the Top 5 for 2024.

Bill Connelly of ESPN has released his SP+ rating for the 2024 season. The metric views Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas as the four best teams in college football heading into the upcoming season.

The ranking adds credence to the widely accepted notion that the above four teams are the top contenders for the 2024 College Football Playoff and national title.

Connelly’s ratings metric covers three areas: returning production, recruiting and on-field success. Last season’s cycle saw all four of the above teams fare as well as anybody in the three categories with the potential to do more damage in 2024.

The rankings outside those four might surprise. Here’s a look at where Connelly and his SP+ metric has the top 15 teams for the next football season.

Where Florida football ranks ahead of the spring, per ESPN’s SP+

Football season is still half a year away, but ESPN has released its pre-spring SP+ rankings and the Gators are in the top 35.

The Florida Gators football team starts the spring at No. 33 overall on the SP+ rankings from ESPN.

SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date,” according to ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly.

Florida’s 8.6 SP+ rating is mostly thanks to the offense. The Gators’ offensive SP+ rating of 34.4 is the 27th-highest rating in the country, but a defensive rating 25.8 (49th) brings the overall number down a bit. Perhaps surprisingly, Florida’s much-criticized special teams unit is ranked ninth in the country with 0.6 ratings.

At the top of the preseason list are the usual suspects, Georgia (34.5) and Ohio State (30.1). Texas (28.7) checks in at No. 4 before starting its SEC journey, the reigning national champion Michigan Wolverines are fifth (27.0), and a Saban-less Alabama (26.6) is at No. 6.

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Looking at where Texas ranks in SEC in returning offensive production

The Texas Longhorns are Top 5 in returning offensive and defensive production in the SEC.

Is Texas on the verge of an offensive drop off? The numbers suggest the opposite.

Not long ago we noted the Longhorns’ overall returning production ranking among SEC teams. Texas ranked second to the Texas A&M Aggies in that category. Perhaps more impressive is the balance between strong offensive and defensive returning production.

Texas is in the Top 5 of the SEC in both offensive and defensive returning production according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. His statistical model, which now includes what transfers did in their last season, has Texas as one of the most complete teams in the conference.

Offensively, the Longhorns return 74% of their production from last season. That includes what the team adds from transfer receivers Matthew Golden (Houston), Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Silas Bolden (Oregon State) and Amari Niblack. The four combined 160 receptions, 2,145 yards and 19 touchdowns from last season.

The Longhorns’ rivals from across the Red River aren’t faring as well in returning production. Despite returning several impact receivers, the Oklahoma Sooners return just 44% of their production from last season. Much of that production left with transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel to Oregon.

Here’s a look at where every SEC team ranks in returning offensive production in 2024.

LSU cracks initial top 10 in 2024 SP+ analytics rankings

SP+ is particularly high on LSU’s offense, which ranks third nationally.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly has released his initial, pre-spring SP+ analytics rankings.

Connelly’s rankings don’t take human opinion into account like a typical poll. Rather, SP+ takes three primary factors — returning production, recent recruiting and recent history — into account to rank college football teams.

For the uninitiated, SP+ is meant to be predictive rather than rank teams’ resumes.

While most early rankings have LSU in the top 15 entering 2024, SP+ is even higher on coach Brian Kelly’s team. It ranks the Tigers No. 10, with the offense ranking third and the defense ranking 34th.

The special teams unit, which ranks 83rd, is currently what’s weighing them down the most.

LSU is one of four SEC teams that cracked the initial top 10, joining No. 1 Georgia, No. 4 Texas, No. 6 Alabama and No. 8 Ole Miss.

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Florida finishes regular season ranked inside SP+ top 50

Florida may have lost on Saturday to close out the regular season, but the Gators actually moved up the ESPN SP+ rankings this week.

Florida finished the 2023 college football season with a losing record, but the Gators are far from the worst football team in the SEC, according to ESPN’s Week 13 update to the SP+ rankings.

The Gators actually moved up two spots from No. 47 a week ago. ESPN Staff Writer Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, reminds us each week that it’s more about the play than the outcome of the game, which explains Florida’s climb to No. 45 overall.

“In a single sentence, (SP+) is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly said. “SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling.

“If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Florida’s offense finished the season ranked No. 41 with a 30.2 rating and teh defense finished at No. 64  with a 26.9 rating. The special teams unit somewhat surprisingly finished the year inside the top 10 at No. 9 with a 1.8 rating.

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LSU trending up in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after Army win

LSU is rising back up the ranks after winning its third straight game.

After a 62-0 win over Army, LSU is rising back up the ranks.

The Tigers sit at No. 15 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25, but according to Bill Connelly and ESPN’s SP+ metric, LSU could be one of the 10 best teams in the country.

LSU comes in at No. 10 in the latest SP+ update. 

That’s a significant jump after SP+ ranked LSU 18th last week. The offense is now ranked at No. 2, trailing only USC.

But it’s the defense that continues to make significant strides. The Tigers’ defense now sits at No. 47, up 19 spots from last week.

SP+ is meant to be forward-looking, so that’s good news for an LSU defense that’s looked like one of the worst in the country at times. If the group can play like a top-50 defense, the offense is good enough to carry LSU.

LSU’s next opponent, Alabama, also made a jump. The Crimson Tide are now at No. 3 in SP+ thanks to a defense that ranks fourth in the nation.

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Gators rise to middle of pack in ESPN’s SP+ rankings

The Florida Gators rose up six spots in this week’s edition of the SP+ rankings produced by ESPN.

The Florida Gators earned an enormous win this past Saturday night against the now-No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers and the national media is starting to show praise to the Orange and Blue.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks college football teams on a weekly basis using the SP+ format.

“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly wrote. “I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.”

After the week three victory at The Swamp, the Gators rose in the ranks to No. 30, just behind in-state neighbor UCF Knights.

Florida ranked at No. 36 in the post-week 2 rankings, so the stock is starting to rise now that the Gators have two solid wins under their belt.

The Gators will host the Charlotte 49ers this Saturday and will try to notch another win to extend a two-game win streak. The game starts at 7 p.m. EDT and will air on ESPN+.

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ESPN’s SP+ predicts score for LSU’s home opener against Grambling

There is no betting line available for LSU’s home opener, but SP+ predicts a nearly 50-point margin.

Games between power programs and FCS teams can be difficult to handicap.

The better team will often show mercy and take its foot off the gas, but not always, as evidenced by Oregon laying 81 points on Portland State in Week 1, the most that program has scored in a game since 1936.

Often, sports books choose to stay away entirely rather than set spreads of 40 or more points. But ESPN’s SP+ model casts no such aspersions.

Proprietor Bill Connelly releases the model’s score predictions every week for every game, and SP+ predicts quite a wide margin for LSU’s home opener against an in-state FCS opponent in Grambling, for which there is not currently a betting spread available.

SP+ sets the projected margin at 48.5 points, and it has the Tigers ultimately winning the game 54-5.

Grambling isn’t likely to score five points exactly in this one, but you get the picture. Despite LSU’s struggles in the opening loss to Florida State, its home opener at Tiger Stadium on Saturday night shouldn’t even be close.

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Where LSU stands in final preseason SP+ rankings from ESPN

The polls are high on the Tigers, but so are the computer metrics entering the season.

There’s a general consensus when it comes to public opinion that LSU enters the 2023 season as a top-five squad.

The Tigers enter the season ranked No. 5 in both the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25, and many other publications concur in their unofficial rankings.

The unbiased metrics also favor the Tigers entering the year. They rank No. 5 in the preseason Football Power Index from ESPN, as well, and that’s where the Tigers land according to ESPN’s SP+ Rankings.

LSU’s offense ranks 10th nationally, while the defense ranks 14th. Having both sides of the ball rank in the top 15 is a recipe for success, and the Tigers are projected to win 8.9 games despite the 11th toughest schedule.

Returning production weighs heavily into SP+, and while LSU was active in the transfer portal this offseason, the team still ranks 16th in terms of returning production, returning 70% from a year ago.

Most of that comes on offense, where LSU brings back 82% of its production (good for eighth nationally) while the defense brings back just 64%, a mark that ranks near the middle of the road at 51st.

LSU brings its offensive core back but will be relying on some new additions on the defensive side of the ball. Still, it’s clear to see why both the polls and metrics like the Tigers as we prepare to kick off the 2023 season.

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Where Florida football stands in SP+ rankings final preseason update

Florida comes in at No. 23 on the final preseason SP+ rankings update of 2023, but it’ll be a slugfest to stay in the top 25 all year.

The Florida Gators are No. 23 on the final SP+ rankings update of the 2023 preseason, but it will be tough to finish the season in the top 25 as Florida faces the toughest strength of schedule in the country.

Four SEC programs are ranked between Nos. 15 and 25 on the list: Texas A&M (16), Ole Miss (18), Florida (23) and Kentucky (24). The Wildcats face the easiest schedule, but it’s still the 13th strongest in the nation. All four teams will be competing for that unofficial fifth spot in SEC unless Alabama, Georgia, LSU or Tennessee crumble early.

Florida’s strength coming into the season is of course its offense, which received an offensive SP+ grade of 35.5 — the 25th-best number in the country. Defensively, Florida isn’t too bad. The Gators are ranked 41st on defense with an SP+ grade of 21.8 on that side of the ball.

Utah, Florida’s opponent for the season opener, is ranked No. 14 thanks to an elite offense. However, quarterback injuries could mean the Utes are playing below their peak capabilities.

Gators Wire will follow the SP+ rankings throughout the season and provide updates as Florida moves up or down.

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