San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Francisco Giants (5-9) and Miami Marlins (8-8) open a 3-game set at loanDepot Park on Monday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; San Francisco won 4-3 last year

The Giants were rained out Sunday after losing both games in Detroit in 11 innings over the weekend. They’re just 3-7 in the last 10 as the pitching woes have been too much to overcome. San Francisco is 2nd in baseball with 1.79 HRs/game, but they’re 22nd in baseball with 5.37 runs allowed per game.

Miami is last with 3.11 runs scored per game but have still managed to go .500 in its 1st 16 games. The Marlins pitchers rank 10th in baseball with a .241 OBA. The Fish were blanked 5-0 by the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday to snap a 4-game winning streak.

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Giants at Marlins projected starters

RHP Logan Webb vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Webb (0-3, 4.76 ERA) makes his 4th start this season. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 17 IP.

  • Has allowed 4 runs in each start (only 1 ER in last start) as he’s haunted by a .341 BABIP
  • 3 career starts vs. Miami: 1-0, 2.55 ERA, 17 K in 17 2/3 IP

Luzardo (2-0, 1.93 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 18 2/3 innings.

  • Last 7 starts (dating back to last year): 3-0, 1.87 ERA, 55 K in 43 1/3 IP
  • 2 starts vs. SF (in 2020): 1-0, 5.79 ERA, 10 K in 9 1/3 IP

Giants at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Giants +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-210) | Marlins -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Giants at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Giants 4

Moneyline

Though I believe Webb has been stung by bad luck and is better than the numbers say, I’m going with the Marlins here. Luzardo is commanding his 97-mph fastball that has rendered just 5 singles and a .200 OBA this season. The Giants are also 1-3 against lefties.

Take the MARLINS -125.

Run line/Against the spread

The Marlins are just 6-10 on the RL and 3-7 at home. Conversely, the Giants are just 5-9 on the RL and 3-5 on the road. The Giants have the 3rd-worst bullpen ERA at 6.08, but Miami is only 5 spots ahead of them at 4.60. What does all this contradicting madness mean?

It’s a coin flip – PASS.

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Over/Under

As mentioned, both bullpens haven’t been good. The wind is also blowing out 9 mph to straightaway center. The Over is 5-0 in SF’s last 5 road games, and 7 is a pretty small number when considering Webb is spotting teams 4 runs per start. It’s a lot to ask to get 5 from Miami, but they’ve done it 4 times in the last 10 games.

LEAN OVER 7 (-125).

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San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (27-22) head to loanDepot park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Miami Marlins (20-28). First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco had its 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a 6-5 loss in the series finale of a 3-game set at the Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants are 5-5 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

Miami split a doubleheader Wednesday at the Colorado Rockies, winning the first game 14-1 before losing the second outing 13-12 in extra innings. The Marlins are just 3-7 SU in their last 10 and have dropped 4 consecutive series.

The Giants lead the season series with the Marlins 2-1 and have a plus-1 run differential.

Giants at Marlins projected starters

LHP Alex Wood vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Wood is 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 43 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 3-2, Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds with 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 11 K across 2 starts.

Alcantara is 5-2 with a 2.00 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 67 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 4-1, Saturday at the Atlanta Braves with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 14 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Giants: No-decision in 6-5 loss at San Francisco April 8 with 5 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 3 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 4 K.

Giants at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:53 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Giants +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Marlins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-180) | Marlins -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Giants at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Giants 1

Money line

BET the MARLINS (-150) because they are better than their record indicates and Miami has a 3-phase edge over the Giants in starting and relief pitching and hitting. The Marlins have a 26-22 Pythagorean record, which is based on run differential.

Alcantara is a Cy Young candidate through May and has been dealing lately. He’s gone 8 or more innings in 3 consecutive starts and hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of those outings with 26 strikeouts over that span.

Miami’s bullpen ranks ahead of San Francisco’s in ERA (4.50-3.85), WHIP (1.37-1.31), xFIP (4.11-3.66), contact rate (77.5-72.9%) and swinging-strike rate (13.1-11.0%), according to FanGraphs.

Miami’s lineup also ranks ahead of San Francisco’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (117-109) and wOBA (.332-322).

There’s reverse line movement in the betting market as most of the money and action is on San Francisco at Tipico Sportsbook but Miami’s price is getting more expensive. This suggests Tipico is trying to entire more pro-Giants action from bettors.

Let’s go the opposite way and BET 1 unit on the MARLINS (-150).

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the MARLINS -1.5 (+145), if at all, because of the juicy payout and their aforementioned edges in this matchup and Miami has won 3 of Alcantara’s last 4 starts by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” to the Under because the weather forecast is predicting 17 mph winds blowing in from right-center field, Alcantara is a bonafide ace and the Giants-Marlins were 1-2 O/U in their first set this season.

However, San Francisco is 5-4-1 O/U as an underdog, Miami is 8-5-1 O/U as a favorite and this total is too sharp.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

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