The San Francisco Giants (5-9) and Miami Marlins (8-8) open a 3-game set at loanDepot Park on Monday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Giants vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; San Francisco won 4-3 last year
The Giants were rained out Sunday after losing both games in Detroit in 11 innings over the weekend. They’re just 3-7 in the last 10 as the pitching woes have been too much to overcome. San Francisco is 2nd in baseball with 1.79 HRs/game, but they’re 22nd in baseball with 5.37 runs allowed per game.
Miami is last with 3.11 runs scored per game but have still managed to go .500 in its 1st 16 games. The Marlins pitchers rank 10th in baseball with a .241 OBA. The Fish were blanked 5-0 by the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday to snap a 4-game winning streak.
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Giants at Marlins projected starters
RHP Logan Webb vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Webb (0-3, 4.76 ERA) makes his 4th start this season. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 17 IP.
- Has allowed 4 runs in each start (only 1 ER in last start) as he’s haunted by a .341 BABIP
- 3 career starts vs. Miami: 1-0, 2.55 ERA, 17 K in 17 2/3 IP
Luzardo (2-0, 1.93 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 18 2/3 innings.
- Last 7 starts (dating back to last year): 3-0, 1.87 ERA, 55 K in 43 1/3 IP
- 2 starts vs. SF (in 2020): 1-0, 5.79 ERA, 10 K in 9 1/3 IP
Giants at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Giants +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-210) | Marlins -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)
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Giants at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Giants 4
Moneyline
Though I believe Webb has been stung by bad luck and is better than the numbers say, I’m going with the Marlins here. Luzardo is commanding his 97-mph fastball that has rendered just 5 singles and a .200 OBA this season. The Giants are also 1-3 against lefties.
Take the MARLINS -125.
Run line/Against the spread
The Marlins are just 6-10 on the RL and 3-7 at home. Conversely, the Giants are just 5-9 on the RL and 3-5 on the road. The Giants have the 3rd-worst bullpen ERA at 6.08, but Miami is only 5 spots ahead of them at 4.60. What does all this contradicting madness mean?
It’s a coin flip – PASS.
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Over/Under
As mentioned, both bullpens haven’t been good. The wind is also blowing out 9 mph to straightaway center. The Over is 5-0 in SF’s last 5 road games, and 7 is a pretty small number when considering Webb is spotting teams 4 runs per start. It’s a lot to ask to get 5 from Miami, but they’ve done it 4 times in the last 10 games.
LEAN OVER 7 (-125).
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