San Diego Padres betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

NLDS Game 5: San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres and LA Dodgers meet in a decisive Game 5 of their best-of-5 NLDS Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Tied 2-2; Padres won regular-season series 8-5

The winner heads to the NLCS to face the New York Mets. These teams split the regular-season series in Los Angeles 3-3.

With a 2-1 series lead, the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes Thursday, but LA picked up an 8-0 victory in Game 4 as a moderate underdog (+118) while the total pushed (8) at most shops. The Over is 3-0-1 in this series.

The Dodgers piled up 12 hits in Game 4, with OF Mookie Betts, C Will Smith and 2B Gavin Lux each swatting HRs while picking up 2 RBIs apiece. LA used 8 pitches, going no more than 1 2/3 IP, while the Padres used 7 arms.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 10-2 road victory in Game 2 in L.A. on Sunday in 1st postseason start of 2024
2024 road splits (regular season): 4-0, 2.63 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 7 BB, 25 K, .198 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 5 starts
Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 5-5, 2.27 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 15 starts
2024 vs. Dodgers (regular season): 1-0, 1.72 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 3 ER), .145 OBA, 1 HR, 6 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
Career postseason: 5-6, 3.88 ERA (65 IP, 57 K, 1.06 WHIP) in 12 starts

Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 regular-season starts. He had a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 1 K in 7-5 home victory in Game 1 vs. L.A. Saturday in his 1st career postseason start
2024 home splits (regular season): 3-1, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9 BB, 55 K in 10 starts
2024/Career vs. Padres (regular season): 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 2 BB 8 K in 2 starts

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Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:19 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 3, Dodgers 2

Moneyline

The PADRES (+120) are worth a look as short ‘dogs in this decisive Game 5.

Backing the veteran Darvish against the Dodgers (-145) is a good move, especially with the rookie Yamamoto making just his 2nd career postseason start. He likely won’t have a very long leash, and the L.A. bullpen used 7 pitchers in the Game 4 win, so its bullpen is a little more taxed than San Diego’s.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive. The risk is just too great for the small reward if you require insurance and just can’t back the underdog straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) might be the best play on the board in Game 5.

We should have a lot of nerves all around, and both of these pitches are capable of throwing a lot of donuts. If they don’t, neither manager is likely to hesitate to go another way, similar to Game 4 where no pitcher lasted very long if things started going south.

We have had a lot of offense in this series, with the Dodgers averaging 5.4 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres going for 5.3 RPG. While that seems to scream Over, this is an elimination game for both teams, and everyone should be a bit on the tight side.

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NLDS Game 4: LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet Wednesday for Game 4 of their best-of-5 NLDS. First pitch from Petco Park is set for 9:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: San Diego leads 2-1

San Diego took the series lead with a 6-5 win over LA on Tuesday while covering as a -143 home favorite. The Padres erupted for a 6-run 2nd inning that was topped off by a 2-run shot from RF Fernando Tatis Jr. that traveled 396 feet.

LF Teoscar Hernandez hit a grand slam that gave San Diego a scare, but it was not enough for the Dodgers to complete the comeback. RHP Walker Buehler took the loss (5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 0 K).

Dodgers at Padres projected starters

TBD vs. RHP Dylan Cease

No Dodgers pitcher announced at time of publishing.

Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) made 33 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 189 1/3 IP.

Career vs. Dodgers: 1-1. 2.61 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 12 BB, 28 K in 4 starts
Only career postseason start vs. LA: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 7-5 home loss the series opener on Saturday
Career postseason: 0-0, 12.00 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in 6 IP in 3 appearances (1 start)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Dodgers at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 9:59 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Dodgers at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Padres 3

Moneyline

BET DODGERS (+115).

Los Angeles is simply too good of a team for me to believe it will lose 3-1 in this series. The Dodgers have lost back-to-back games, but prior to that were on a 6-game win streak, and I expect them to get back to their winning ways in this matchup.

Be aware that the Padres have won the last 4 matchups vs. the Dodgers in San Diego.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Dodgers to win here and to cover the spread as +1.5 (-200) underdogs, but a line set a7 -200 is not worth the risk to bet on.

I recommend divvying up units between the run line and ML here, placing slightly more on the ML unless you are comfortable betting on this line.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-120).

The Over has hit in 4 straight for San Diego overall and 2 straight home games. For LA, the Over is 7-3 in its last 10 games and has hit in 2 of its last 3 games on the road. The Over has also hit in each of the 3 games in this series and is undefeated in the last 4 matchups between these squads.

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NLDS Game 3: LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The NLDS between the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres moves to Petco Park for Game 3 Tuesday tied 1-1. First pitch is set for 9:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Tied 1-1; Padres won regular-season series 8-5

After a 7-5 Game 1 win by the Dodgers as -135 home favorites to open the series Saturday, the Padres bounced back Sunday in Game 2, winning 10-2 behind starter Yu Darvish’s 7 innings of 1-run ball. San Diego, which cashed as a +136 underdog, hit 6 homers in the win, 2 by RF Fernando Tatis Jr., and 1 apiece from CF Jackson Merrill, SS Xander Bogaerts, DH David Peralta and C Kyle Higashioka.

Dodgers at Padres projected starters

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Michael King

Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) made 16 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.55 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 75 1/3 innings.

Last start: No decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 7-2 home win vs. Padres Sept. 26
2024 vs. Padres: 0-1, 4.32 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K in 2 starts
Career vs. Padres (regular season): 6-1, 1.80 ERA (75 IP, 15 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 12 starts
Career postseason: 3-3, 2.94 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 15 starts

King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) made 30 starts and appeared in 31 games in the regular season. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 173 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 0 BB, 12 K in 4-0 home shutout of Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of Wild Card Series Oct. 1
Has allowed no more than 2 earned runs over last 9 starts
2024 vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 3.10 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 5 HR, 10 BB, 23 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
Career vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 2.82 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 16 H, 5 HR, 10 BB, 26 K in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances
Last start vs. Dodgers: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road victory Sept. 24
Career postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (9 IP), 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K in 1 1 relief outing (2020 for Yankees vs. Rays) and 1 start (Oct. 1 vs. Braves)

Dodgers at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 4:57 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Dodgers at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Dodgers 2

Moneyline

Buehler has the postseason pedigree but has not been the same this season since coming back from an injury. Over his last 6 starts, he has alternated allowing 2 or fewer runs and 4 or more. In his last start, he allowed 1, so if that pattern continues, he will give up several runs this time.

King dominated in Game 1 of the Padres’ Wild Card Series and was solid in his starts against the Dodgers this season.

The pitching matchup favors the Padres (-150), but you get better odds on the spread.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Of the 15 games between the 2 teams in the regular season and postseason this year, 11 have been decided by more than 1 run. The Padres have 20 wins in King’s games, 14 by 2 or more runs.

Both games this series have been decided by 2 or more runs.

BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under

The last 3 head-to-head meetings have had more than 7 runs, but 7 of the 15 this season have not surpassed 7.

King’s last 5 regular-season starts did not reach 8 total runs.

BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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NLDS Game 2: San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres and LA Dodgers face off Sunday for Game 2 of their best-of-5 NLDS. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Dodgers lead 1-0

LA picked up a 7-5 win in Saturday’s series opener as a -135 home favorite. After trailing 5-3, the Dodgers exploded for a 3-run 4th inning to take the lead before adding a final run in the 5th. DH Shohei Ohtani went 2 for 5, including a 3-run shot in the 2nd, and scored twice.

The Dodgers outhit the Padres 10-7, but the teams were even in HRs (1-1), runners left on base (8-8), and total bases (13-13). Saturday’s win was the 1st in the postseason for the Dodgers since Game 1 of the NLDS in 2022, also against the Padres.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Jack Flaherty

Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA) made 16 starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 81 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-3 victory at Arizona Diamondbacks Sept. 27
Only career postseason start vs. LA: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-3 road victory Oct. 12, 2022, in Game 2 of NLDS
Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 5-5, 2.27 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 across 15 starts
Career postseason: 4-6, 4.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 58 innings

Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 162 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 4-3 home win over Padres Sept. 25
Only career postseason start vs. Padres: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-0 road defeat Oct. 2, 2020, in Game 3 of NLWC with St. Louis Cardinals
Career vs. Padres (regular season): 2-1, 4.45 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 6 starts
Career postseason: 1-3, 3.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 25 innings

Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Dodgers 3

Moneyline

LEAN PADRES (+120).

San Diego, despite losing the last 3 in LA, has won 6 of the last 10 meetings overall. The 3 straight losses may sound off-putting, but that doesn’t scare me off. I don’t see the Dodgers beating a team as good as this one in 4 straight meetings, so this bet is worth the risk.

This is a lean because the Dodgers are the better and hotter team, so this does come with risk.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I expect the Padres to not only cover, but to also pick up the outright win. However, I am not a fan of doubling down on a team’s ML and run line, and I like the odds on the ML better here. As set at +1.5 (-185), this line is not worth the risk of betting on, so play the ML and/or total instead.

I recommend passing here. However, if you feel more confident in the Padres to cover +1.5 and are okay with betting a -185, then you can seriously consider playing it.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-115).

The Over has hit in back-to-back home games for LA and is 6-3-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 overall. For San Diego, the Over is 2-1 in the playoffs so far and 2-0 in its last 2 road games, including the regular season. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

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NLDS Game 1: San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The LA Dodgers welcome the San Diego Padres to Dodger Stadium Saturday for the first of their best-of-5 NLDS series. First pitch is set for 8:38 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: 0-0; season series: Padres won 8-5

The Dodgers won the NL West and finished with the top seed in the entire league. Los Angeles finished the regular season on fire, winning 5 straight, 2 of those of which were against the Padres. It scored double digits in 2 of its last 3 games. The Dodgers were the second-best home team in the majors, ending with a 52-28 record. They won 5 of their last 7 at home. Los Angeles is led by DH Shohei Ohtani, who ended the season with a team-high 54 home runs and 130 RBIs.

The Padres, who finished 2nd in the NL West, had the best record of any non-division winner. They beat the Atlanta Braves in back-to-back games at home to advance to the NLDS. They won those games a combined 9-4 and have won 4 of their last 5 games, including the playoffs. They lost RHP Joe Musgrove in the process, though, and he’ll miss all of next season due to Tommy John surgery. San Diego has won 6 of its last 9 games on the road. It is led by 3B Manny Machado, who finished the regular season with 29 home runs and 105 RBIs.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) made 33 starts in 2024. He ended with a 1.07 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 189 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss to the Dodgers Sept. 25
2024 away stats: 8-4, 3.83 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 in 19 starts
Career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 2.61 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 4 starts

Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 starts this season. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 innings.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-2 road win over the Colorado Rockies Saturday
2024 home stats: 3-1, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 10 starts
Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 8 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 in 2 starts

Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-190) | Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Moneyline

BET DODGERS (-140).

The Dodgers have performed well recently with Yamamoto on the mound. They have won his last 3 starts. Los Angeles also has bats that are red hot, scoring a total of 26 in its last 3-game series and even putting up 11 on the Padres in their 2 games before that. The Dodgers have also been among the best in the country at home, so they should get a boost from that as well.

The Padres had the kryptonite for most of the season against the Dodgers, but they won just 2 of 5 to close the regular season and has their Wild Card series at home as well. San Diego has scored 5 or fewer runs in 9 straight games and has scored 3 or fewer in 3 of its last 7. Couple it all together and back DODGERS (-140).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Dodgers are the run-line favorite here, but 4 of the 13 games between the 2 teams were 1-run games. They aren’t worth playing on the spread. The Padres are far too expensive as a run-line underdog as well.

Avoid the spread and take a moneyline option.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

At this level, both teams have strong starting pitchers taking the mound. That said, the Dodgers have gone Under in 3 of their last 6 games and have allowed 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.

While their offense has been hot, in their last series against the Padres, the Dodgers scored just 13 runs in all 3 games. The Padres split their Wild Card series 1-1 O/U and are 3-6 O/U in their last 9 games.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet Wednesday in Game 2 of their best-of-3 NL Wild Card Series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Padres lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Padres won 4-3

The Braves were running on fumes after playing a makeup doubleheader in Atlanta against the New York Mets Monday just to get into the postseason. After a cross-country flight, the Braves seemed to be lacking energy in a 4-0 loss to the Padres Tuesday in Game 1 of this series. Atlanta, which was a +170 underdog, had just 1 extra-base hit — a double — and 6 singles in the loss.

With ace Chris Sale dealing with back spasms, the Braves called up Triple-A SP AJ Smith-Shawver to make just his 2nd start this season for the big-league club in Tuesday’s Wild Card opener. It didn’t go well as he 21-year-old Texan gave up a leadoff single to NL batting champ DH Luis Arraez and a 2-run homer to RF Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres’ first 2 batters. Smith-Shawver allowed another run in the 2nd after hitting a batter followed by a single and a sacrifice fly to the first 3 batters of the inning before being removed. His final line: 1 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K, throwing only 19 of 29 pitches for strikes.

On the flip side, Padres SP Michael King scattered 5 hits across 7 scoreless innings with 12 K’s while throwing 65 of his 89 pitches for strikes for his 1st-career postseason victory. His only previous playoff appearance came in 2 innings of relief for the New York Yankees in a 2020 ALDS.

The Padres were the only home team to win Tuesday out of the 4 Wild Card Games. C Kyle Higashioka had the Padres’ other 2 RBIs behind the 2nd-inning sacrifice fly and an 8th-inning solo homer..

Atlanta is still 8-4 across the past 12 games.

Braves at Padres projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Fried (11-10, 3.25 ERA) made 29 regular-season starts. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 174 1/3 innings with 1 complete game.

Last start: Win, 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 3-0 home victory vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
2024 road splits: 7-6, 3.26 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 10 HR, 33 BB, 99 K, .215 opponents batting average (OBA), 1.12 WHIP in 17 starts
Last 7 starts: 4-3, 2.36 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 47 K
2024 vs. Padres: 1 road start, loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 3-1 defeat May 17
Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 2.30 (31 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 23 K, 1 complete game in 5 starts
Career postseason: 2-4, 4.57 ERA (65 IP, 33 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 64 K in 11 starts and 8 relief appearances

Musgrove (6-5, 3.88 ERA) made 19 regular-season starts. He had a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 99 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 loss at LA Dodgers Sept. 26
2024 home splits: 4-4, 3.86 ERA (65 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 12 HR, 11 BB, 70 K, .241 OBA, 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts
Last 7 starts: 3-1, 2.38 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 50 K
Career vs. Braves: 3-1, 4.29 (42 IP, 20 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 41 K in 8 starts — last facing Atlanta in 2022
Career postseason: 2-1, 4.26 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 21 K, 1.11 WHIP in 3 starts and 7 relief appearances

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Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:32 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-250) | Padres -1.5 (+175)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 3, Padres 2

Moneyline

The BRAVES (+100) are worth a look at even-money behind the southpaw Fried.

The Padres (-120) use the hometown pitcher Musgrove, who is from nearby El Cajon, Calif. Like Fried, he has pitched well down the stretch. The difference is that the lefty Fried has handled himself a little better over the years against San Diego.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves +1.5 (-200) will set you back 2 times the potential return. That’s too much risk for a little insurance. AVOID.

Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (+100) might be the best play on the board. I’d wait it out to see if the O/U line jumps to 7 though.

The Atlanta bats were asleep after the double dip Monday, overnight travel, quick turnaround and scrambling to find a starter for Game 1. Things are a little more back to normal with Fried toeing the slab.

The Under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games for Atlanta, while going 4-1-1 in the past 6 games on the road.

For San Diego, the total has gone low at an 11-2-1 pace in the past 14 outings, while cashing at a 6-0-1 clip in the past 7 at Petco Park.

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NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Padres won 4-3

The Braves saved their best for last. In a makeup doubleheader against the New York Mets on Monday, Atlanta lost 8-7 in a wild Game 1. In Game 2, the Braves needed a win, and they notched a 3-0 victory as a heavy favorite (-275) as the Under (9) cashed.

Atlanta wrapped up the regular season 8-3 in the final 11 games, while the Under went 7-1-1 in the last 9 outings. The Braves allowed 1 or 0 runs in 4 of the final 6 contests, too.

LHP Chris Sale missed the regular-season finale due to back spasms, and he will not be available to pitch until at least the NLDS, should the Braves qualify.

The Braves have not yet announced a starter for Game 1 at the time of publishing.

The Padres lost 11-2 on Sunday to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the regular-season finale, but they managed an 11-4 record since Sept. 13. The Under went 10-2-1 in the final 13 contests.

Braves at Padres projected starters

TBD vs. RHP Michael King

The Braves have 3 options for Game 1. RHP Ian Anderson, RHP Bryce Elder and RHP AJ Smith-Shawver.

Anderson (4-0, 1.26 ERA) 35 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 20 H (1 HR), 17 BB, 40 K, .159 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.94 WHIP in 8 postseason starts. Hasn’t appeared in MLB since 2022
Elder (2-5, 6.52 ERA) 49 2/3 IP, 36 ER, 64 H (8 HR), 17 BB, 46 K, .311 OBA, 1.63 WHIP in 10 MLB starts in 2024
Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA), 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K, .188 OBA, 1.15 WHIP in 1 MLB start in 2024

King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) made 30 regular-season starts and 1 relief appearance. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road victory vs. LA Dodgers Sept. 24
2024 home splits: 4-5, 3.32 ERA, 78 2/3 IP, 29 ER, 8 HR, 29 BB, 109 K, .223 OBA, 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts
Last 7 games: 3-3, 2.11 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 32 H, 16 BB, 40 K, 1.25 WHIP
Career vs. Braves: 0-0, 0.00 (3 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 relief appearance in 2023
Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 relief appearance with New York Yankees in 2020

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Braves at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:28 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Braves +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Braves at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Braves 2

Moneyline

The PADRES (-165) are a moderate favorite against the Braves (+140), who are feeling fortunate to have made the postseason, but they’re likely to be a bit exhausted, too.

Atlanta had to expend a lot of energy to split a doubleheader against the Mets just to get into the postseason, and then it jumped a Delta Airlines charter flight which left Atlanta at 10:19 p.m. ET, arriving into San Diego at 2:24 a.m. ET. That’s a super-tough turnaround.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more ‘brave’, forget the moneyline and go straight to the PADRES -1.5 (+135) at plus-money.

Adrenaline will only go so far for the Braves +1.5 (-160), and they’re facing a tough customer in King. While the San Diego right-hander doesn’t have the postseason experience, he was red-hot down the stretch. And, Atlanta is scrambling for a starter after using top-tier pitching in the double dip just to get here.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play.

The Padres didn’t have to travel far from Arizona on Sunday, and they’ll likely have their hitting shoes on. However, expect the Braves to be a bit sluggish after the double dip, and the overnight travel. It’s a good combination to go low.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (93-68) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-73) wrap up their regular-season series Sunday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 7-5

The Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NL playoffs, but they look like the team fighting to stay in the mix for the final Wild Card spot. San Diego took down Arizona 5-0 on Saturday, limiting the D-backs to just 2 hits.

The Diamondbacks are battling the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for the final 2 Wild Card spots in the NL. However, Arizona has dropped 5 of the past 6 games, and it now finds itself tied with the Mets in percentage points, and New York has 2 games in hand.

The Under cashed for the Padres in Saturday’s game, and is now 10-1-1 in the past 12 games since Sept. 15

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

LHP Martin Perez vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt

Perez (5-5, 4.25 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 131 1/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sept. 21
2024 road splits: 2-3, 5.57 ERA, 53 1/3 IP, 33 ER, 62 H, 12 HR, 21 BB, 38 K, .290 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.56 WHIP in 10 starts
Last 7 games: 3-0, 2.80 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 32 H, 13 BB, 28 K, 1.27 WHIP
Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 7 K, 1.84 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 2 starts

Pfaadt (10-10, 4.80 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 11-0 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants Tuesday
2024 home splits: 6-5, 5.31 ERA (83 IP, 49 ER), 13 HR, 19 BB, 86 K, .280 OBA, 1.35 WHIP in 15 starts
Last 7 games: 3-4, 8.53 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 12 BB, 41 K, 1.89 WHIP
Career vs. Padres: 0-2, 3.81 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 36 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 28 K, 1.48 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:49 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Diamondbacks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-140) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Diamondbacks 2

Moneyline

The PADRES (+145) are a solid value as moderate underdogs. San Diego has outscored Arizona 10-3 in this series so far, and the Diamondbacks (-175) are playing about as poorly as possible.

The time is ticking for Arizona, as it has just 1 more chance to grab a win and get in the mix for a playoff spot, but Pfaadt has been awful lately. In fact, in his past 7 starts, he has been allowing nearly a run per inning. Not good.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a more conservative bettor, PADRES +1.5 (-140) is not priced out of the line if you’d like a little bit of insurance.

The Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115) haven’t shown any signs of life, and using Pfaadt is bad news for Arizona’s postseason chances.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) might be the best play on the board here.

The Under has dominated for the Padres lately, going 10-1-1 in the past 12 contests. The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 road games for San Diego, too. The total has gone low at a 2-0-1 clip in the past 3 starts for the southpaw Perez.

As far as the Diamondbacks are concerned, the Under has cashed in the 1st 2 games of this crucial series, with Arizona scoring 3 or fewer runs in 4 of the past 5 games with 2 shutout losses.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (92-68) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Saturday at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 6-5

The Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed in the National League playoffs. San Diego picked up a 5-3 win as a short ‘dog (+115) Friday as the Under (8.5) hung on. It was a crushing blow to Arizona as it battles with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets for 2 final Wild Card spots in the NL.

The Padres are bringing back RHP Randy Vasquez from Triple-A El Paso, trying to keep their regular arms fresh for the postseason.

The Under is now 9-1-1 in the past 11 games since Sept. 15. Friday’s Under snapped a 3-0-1 run to the Over for the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks are just 1-4 in the past 5 games, and they’ve scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of the past 4 games. Arizona is losing what was once a strong grip on a potential playoff spot.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Vasquez (4-7, 5.18 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 92 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 11 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 3 K in 11-4 road setback vs. Tampa Bay Rays Aug. 31
2024 road splits: 3-4, 6.79 ERA, 50 1/3 IP, 38 ER, 74 H, 7 HR, 17 BB, 29 K, .349 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.81 WHIP in 11 starts
Last 7 games: 2-3, 6.09 ERA (34 IP, 23 ER), 39 H, 14 BB, 20 K, 1.56 WHIP
Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA (101 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Rodriguez (3-4, 5.56 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H (3 HR), 3 BB, 8 K in 6-3 home setback vs. San Francisco Giants Monday
2024 home splits: 0-3, 6.75 ERA (24 IP, 18 ER), 6 HR, 10 BB, 26 K, .303 OBA, 1.67 WHIP in 5 starts
Last 7 games: 2-4, 5.71 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 14 BB, 38 K, 1.62 WHIP
Career vs. Padres: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, an 11-0 road victory Aug. 23, 2019, with Boston Red Sox

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Diamondbacks -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-145) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 8, Padres 6

Moneyline

The DIAMONDBACKS (-175) are a good play in the middle game of this series, as the Padres (+145) just cannot be trusted with Vasquez coming back from the minors. He had a dismal 8.21 ERA in 10 starts with El Paso, and he is simply coming up to the big club in a meaningless game to save the other arms for the postseason.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more on the adventurous side, play DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+120) laying the run and a half.

The Diamondbacks are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Padres +1.5 (-145) are locked into the No. 4 seed. It won’t be easy, and certainly don’t bet both the moneyline and run line.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-120) might be the best play on the board here.

The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games for the Diamondbacks, and the total has gone high at a 4-1-1 clip in the past 6 outings by the southpaw Rodriguez.

For the Padres, the Under is 9-1-1 in the past 11 games, but the Over is 9-2 in Vasquez’s past 11 starts in the majors, so go against the recent team trends.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (91-68) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) begin a 3-game series Friday at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Padres lost the final 2 games in a 3-game set against the Dodgers in Los Angeles after winning the series opener Tuesday 4-2. San Diego lost 7-2 on Thursday as a slight underdog (-106) as the Over (8.5) cashed. That halted a 8-0-1 run to the Under dating back to Sept. 15.

The Diamondbacks stopped a 3-game losing streak with an 8-2 victory against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as a heavy favorite (-256) while the Over (9) cashed. The total is on a 3-0-1 run for the D-backs.

These teams haven’t met since July 5-7 in San Diego, when Arizona took 2 of 3 games at Petco Park. The Over cashed in all 3 meetings in that series, with the Snakes averaging 8.0 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres averaging 5.3 RPG.

The last time these teams met in Phoenix was back on May 3-5, with the Padres winning 2 of 3 games. The Over cashed in 2 of those 3 outings, too. The Over is on a 6-0 run, while hitting in 8 of the past 9, in this series.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sunday
2024 road splits: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 21 K, .203 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
Last 7 games: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 16 ER, 34 H, 7 BB, 37 K, 1.15 WHIP
Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA, 101 1/3 IP, 40 ER, 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 68 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-0 road victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
2024 home splits: 2-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 13 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 23 K, .228 OBA, 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts
Last 7 games: 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 10 BB, 32 K, 1.28 WHIP
Career vs. Padres: 9-3, 3.05 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 28 ER, 11 HR, 31 BB, 78 K, 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

The PADRES (+105) are a solid road ‘dog behind the veteran Darvish, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak and build a little momentum heading into the postseason.

The Diamondbacks (-125) aren’t as good of a play because of Kelly. While he is unbeaten this season in 5 decisions, he was lifted from his most recent start due to cramping. It’s uncertain how long he’ll be able to go, and how effective he’ll be.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-200) are a little too pricey for a standalone wager, if you’re like a little bit of insurance. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, throwing them in isn’t the end of the world.

The Padres have won Darvish’s past 4 starts since he returned from injury, so they’re a much better play straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) is a solid play in a game which should have a playoff feel. The Padres are already into the postseason field, and the Diamondbacks are a good bet to snap up one of the other Wild Card spots.

While the Under has cashed in 6 straight meetings, these teams haven’t faced each other since early July, so that can be discarded. What’s more important is that the Under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games for the Padres.

And, while the Diamondbacks have cashed high at a 3-0-1 clip in the past 4 games, the Under is 3-1 in Kelly’s past 4 starts.

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