Air Force vs. Utah State: Why the Falcons will win

Conference Play Kick’s Off at Falcon Stadium on Friday Night

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Can the Falcons finally get a win over the Blake Anderson era Aggies?

WEEK 3: Air Force Falcons 2-0 (0-0) vs. Utah State Aggies 1-1 (0-0)

WHEN: Friday, September 15th — 6:00 P.M. MT/ 5:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: A few clouds from time to time. Low 46F. WSW winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network CBSSN: Alex Del Barrio, Robert Turbin and Emily Proud

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 6-5

WEBSITES: UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Utah State | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 13.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 12.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 69.73% (25-17.26)

https://x.com/AF_Football/status/1701278094991266095?s=20

Game 3: Air Force vs. Utah Statehttps://t.co/XTnbEAvmSH pic.twitter.com/JuPVcMbVAo

— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) September 11, 2023

Will this be the year that Air Force hands Blake Anderson his first loss to the Falcons? The series between these schools has been pretty even, with only a slight edge going to the Falcons winning six of 11 matchups. But the past two years, Utah State has had their number under Blake Anderson.

Last season, Air Force was a two score favorite to beat the Aggies, but the trio of Cooper Legas, Calvin Tyler, and Brian Cobbs proved to be too much for what wound up being a 10 win Falcon team.  While Tyler and Cobbs are no longer there, Legas has Terrell Vaughn and Rashul Faison making up a formidable 2023 edition.

Like last year, the Air Force defense looks dominant. Mind you, they lost to the Aggies while surrendering 34 points last year, which saw the Falcons end the season with the top ranked defense in the country. That defense has looked impressive again, but it’s hard to really know when you consider the anemic offenses they have faced.

Offensively, it’s difficult to know just how good they are as they piled up points on an underwhelming FCS opponent to start the season, and then struggled a bit versus what may wind up being a very good Sam Houston defensive group. There is still much to learn yet about the Falcons offense.

Utah State had a solid showing in their season opener against a ranked Iowa team, albeit in a losing effort. After mustering just 14 points against the Hawkeyes, they bounced back scoring nearly 80 points last week versus FCS competition, Idaho State. Regardless of the competition, the Aggies 250 yards rushing per game should have the Falcons attention.

I’m not sure how much these results can be used to conclude a winner in this Friday’s Mountain West Conference opener, but there are plenty of subplots with which to project why either team may be expected to win this bout.

HERE’S WHY AIR FORCE WILL WIN AGAINST THE AGGIES

Unlike their first two games, which saw the Falcons fumble the ball a whopping six times, they should have a considerable focus on ball security this Friday. You would think that’s a given in an program that is obsessed with details, but they have been fortunate to only lose two of those half dozen fumbles. Turnovers have played a significant role in their losses to Utah State the previous two meetings, they would do very well to avoid them in 2023.

The fumbling may also prove an opportunity for others to contribute. Considering fumbles likely led to one of the underclassmen ball carriers to see more carries. Don’t be surprised if Dylan Carson sees a significant increase in carries this week at fullback. He’s got quick feet and wearing number 20 can only mean good things when you’re a Falcon ball carrier.

Alec Mock had 11 tackles, including six solo stops and a tackle for loss 😤

He led an @AF_Football defense that allowed just 80 yards of total offense, the fourth-lowest total by an Air Force opponent in program history ⚡️#AtThePEAK | #MWFB | #FlyFightWin pic.twitter.com/1J5XYRPTfD

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) September 11, 2023

After the previous encounter, Air Force’s defense should be prepared for Cooper Legas ability to do damage on the ground, not just as a passer. He chipped in 76 yards and a tudd carrying the rock, which was a contributing factor to the Falcons inability to stop the Aggie offense. The Air Force defense is still very good, and a lot of players were on that field last year will remember what happened. Expect them to play at a very high level this time around.

Confidence in the defensive unit holding up their part is more than reasonable. The offense clearly leave a few more question marks. The offensive line is the strength of the offense, executing the multiple run attack at a high level will be a must this week. There is plenty of talent on this offense with Larrier, Eldridge III and crew, and they have yet to unleash Dane Kinamon at all this season. Perhaps this is the week it happens. Kinamon can be an absolute game changer.

I’ll try and capture the essence of an Air Force victory in a not-so-complex recipe. Win the turnover battle, allow Utah State to continue averaging 75 penalty yards per game, feature three 75 yard ball carriers, don’t allow a surprise Aggie impact performer (I’m talking about former Falcon Micah Davis here), continued front seven dominance, and win in the redzone on both sides of the ball.

If Troy Calhoun’s bunch can deliver on those key areas, the Falcon’s should be able to start the year 1-0 in conference play. It will not be easy, but it’s time to get back on the winning end of these games with the Aggies.

Air Force 27 – Utah State 24

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Air Force at Sam Houston State: Falcons Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Falcons Head to Houston in Week Two

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Air Force Takes on Same Houston for the first time.

WEEK 2: Air Force Falcons 1-0 (0-0) vs. Same Houston Bearkats 0-0 (0-0)

WHEN: Saturday, September 9th — 6:00 P.M. MT/ 5:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)

WEATHER: Indoors

TV: CBS Sports Network Carter Blackburn (play-by-play), Robert Turbin (analyst)

STREAM: Stats.statsbroadcast.com

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force has never played Sam Houston.

WEBSITES: GoBearkats.com, the official Sam Houston athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Sam Houston | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 14.5

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 23.9

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 15.6

The Falcons have arrived

📍 TX pic.twitter.com/VFfMhHxMg8

— Air Force Football (@AF_Football) September 8, 2023

A banged up Air Force team heads to Houston to take on FBS newcomers, the Sam Houston Bearkats. While the Falcons cruised to a convincing week one victory against FCS opponent, Robert Morris, the Bearkats had their hands full with much stiffer competition in BYU.

For the second year in a row K.C. Keeler’s squad was shutout in their season opener. But the defense should certainly get some attention with their showing at Provo. Losing 14-0, the Bearkats were very stingy, holding the Cougars to just 257 yards of total offense. We don’t know how good BYU is this year, but the newest C-USA member still impressed.

Troy Calhoun’s squad got a good look at their depth last week. Unfortunately, not all of that was because of a significant lead. While they did batter Robert Morris and get a lot of players game action, Air Force entered the game a little dinged up, and added one of the best players in the Conference to that list of those on the mend. Camby Goff sustained a pretty significant injury against the Colonials, the last thing you want to see when playing an FCS opener.

Heading into week two, they are hoping to have a few key players back who weren’t dressed in week one. The presence alone of players to the likes of Dane Kinamon won’t promise a win at NRG Stadium though. Here are a few keys to staying in the win column.

takeaways, no giveaways

Turnovers can be the great equalizer in any game. In their opener, Air Force put the ball on the ground three times versus a vastly inferior opponent. The Bearkats saw Keegan Shoemaker throw a trio of interceptions.

This is not Rhett Bomar or Josh McCown slinging the ball around. The Falcons should be able to capitalize on what has proven to be a willing participant to put the ball into dangerous flight patterns. There is no need to match the Bearkats willingness to give the ball away. That’s could be the key ingredient to an upset.

STAY STINGY

Both teams held their opponents under four yards per play; Air Force 3.1 and Sam Houston 3.8. The Bearkats were only able to muster 3.2 yards per play on offense though. A historically good defense in 2022, still has some identity here in 2023’s version of the Falcon defense. Getting yards should not come easy against them.

Make it hard for Sam Houston to move the ball on the ground especially, and force Shoemaker to put the ball in the air. After last weeks result, you could expect Keeler’s squad to get much more production on the ground. But don’t comply. Make Saturday feel like Groundhog day for the Bearkats with a K.

Absolutely love Air Force’s brand of football.

pic.twitter.com/gzgMxUE78a

— Last of the Fullbacks (@TheLastFullback) September 2, 2023

GET THE BACKS MORE CARRIES

Last week saw pretty much anyone with a blue jersey get a carry against Robert Morris. But starting quarterback, Zac Larrier still got a majority of those carries. He’s a homerun threat with the ball in his hands, and they will be relying on him a lot this season.

Team’s need to feel uneasy about the prospect on their trio of fullbacks getting the ball, just as much as the threat of John Lee Eldridge III or Zac Larrier gashing them. Establishing that fullback run game is almost like a cheat code for the Air Force offense. Unlock that part your game, and it’s going to make for some miserable drives for the opposing defense.

Prediction

K.C. Keeler has done a fantastic job in his tenure at Sam Houston State University. Before last years 5-4 campaign to conclude their FCS era, the Bearkats went on a tear, going 21-1, with a National Championship the prior two seasons. It’s no coincidence they earned a step up in weight class to the FBS under his leadership.

Even in a loss to BYU, there is a lot to be optimistic about if you’re a Bearkats fan. I think the Sam Houston faithful will have to temper that enthusiasm for a few more weeks, until the schedule relents a little though.

Air Force didn’t face great competition, but they also had the luxury of running a lot of players out there, and keeping with a gameplan that is modeled on consistency, repetition and flawless execution. That’s going to be difficult to deal with, even after a great showing against BYU.

I would expect the Falcon’s offensive arsenal to be more faceted and lethal this week. And frankly, it will need to be. But combined with complimentary football from a very good defense, and it will seem a lot like Provo again by night’s end I suspect.

Texas has been quite kind to Air Force recently, rewarding them with trophies their past two visit to the great state. Defeating Baylor in a bowl game, and a neutral site victory over Army to secure the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy proved quite the bounty. No trophy this Saturday, just a W as they the Falcons pull away in the second half.

Air Force 27 – Sam Houston 10

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