Jamal Adams will want to be the highest-paid safety in NFL history, and the Jets can’t afford to wait to sign him if they want to keep him.
If Christopher Johnson really wants Jamal Adams to be a Jet for life, he’s going to have to pony up a lot of cash to keep Adams in New York.
Though the Jets control Adams through the 2021 season if they pick up his fifth-year option, they’d be apt to offer him an extension sooner rather than later, both as a show of good faith after a chaotic year and because of the potential price tag he could command in two years.
Adams is currently the 18th highest-paid safety with the $22.2 million rookie deal he signed in 2017 after the Jets took him sixth overall, but he will soon earn a much bigger salary. The Jets have three options with Adams: They can sign him to a contract extension at any point after this season, pick up his fifth-year option by May 3, 2020, or do nothing and let him play out the final year of his contract and let him hit free agency at the end of the 2020 season.
The Jets should take the first option if they truly believe Adams is the face of their franchise and the future of their defense.
What would it take to sign Adams to a long-term deal? Well, you’d have to look at the two record-setting contracts signed by safeties Landon Collins and Kevin Byard last offseason. Collins signed a six-year, $84 million contract with the Redskins in March that included $44.5 million in guaranteed money. With an average annual salary of $14 million, he became the highest-paid safety in the NFL until Byard signed a five-year, $70.5 million extension with the Titans in July that included $31 million guaranteed and will pay him an average of $14.1 million annually.
Byard’s yearly salary is the starting point for Adams’ contract extension. In all likelihood, Adams would want somewhere close a $15 million annual salary, which isn’t completely unthinkable given Adams’ play of late.
The Jets also can’t afford to wait longer than this offseason to extend Adams because of the other safeties in line for massive deals.
If the Jets exercised Adams’ fifth-year option today, it would cost around $11.81 for the 2021 season. Since Adams was a top-10 pick, his option is calculated by taking the average of the top 10 safety salaries. That $11.81 million number could increase if another safety signs a deal that vaults him into the top 10.
That’s below anything Adams would ask for in a contract extension this winter, but by pushing the Jets’ deadline to sign Adams long-term by another season it could potentially raise the floor well for Adams if other safeties sign bigger deals.
The three names Joe Douglas will have to watch if he plays the waiting game are the Vikings’ Harrison Smith, the Bears’ Eddie Jackson and the Chargers’ Derwin James. Smith is up for an extension after the 2021 season when he’ll turn 32, so the odds of him setting the market price are low. James is already one of the best safeties in the league but also isn’t eligible for a new deal until after the 2021 season unless the Chargers exercise his fifth-year option where he’ll have to wait until after 2022.
The price could go up for Adams if the Jets wait for Jackson’s impending deal.
Jackson is two years older than Adams and much more of a ballhawk, but he’s also one of the best safeties in the league and could easily sign a bigger deal than Byard and Collins as early as this offseason. If the Bears choose to extend Jackson before the Jets extend Adams, it could massively affect Adams’ asking price down the road.
The Jets shouldn’t wait for any of these dominos to fall. Getting Adams locked up before the market resets will be crucial to Joe Douglas’ ability to remake the roster and keep Adams at the same time. He’ll have at minimum $46.4 million to spend in 2020, and that’s before he inevitably cuts other contracts for overpaid players like Trumaine Johnson.
Yes, spending upward of $15 million per year on a safety is a massive risk for the Jets given the holes in various other positions on the roster. But for someone like Adams, it’s worth it given his performance this year. The Jets won’t just be paying for an incredible defensive back, but they’ll be paying for a top-flight pass rusher as well.
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been able to unlock Adams’ versatility both in coverage and as a pass rusher. He’s blitzed Adams at multiple positions on the field – edge, safety, cornerback – which helped Adams notch five sacks the past two weeks (six on the season) and put him on pace to break the NFL record for most sacks by a defensive back (eight).
According to Next Gen Stats, Adams blitzed an average of 5.2 times per game over the first eight games of the season. Adams lined up as an edge rusher 14 times against the Redskins, rushed 13 times and finished with a 26.4 pass-rush win percentage, per Pro Football Focus. On the season, he ranks first among defensive backs in blitzes (55) and quarterback pressures (12). Though he only has one interception on the season, Adams has broken up six passes and allowed a completion percentage of 53.8 percent and a passer rating of 78.7 when targeted.
Retaining Adams will come at a hefty price, but it will be worth it to preserve the closest thing the Jets have to a superstar. Generational defensive talents don’t come around often and the Jets would be wise to lock theirs up for the foreseeable future.
