The Jets ran the ball effectively despite playing with Le’Veon Bell.
The Jets’ 22-21 win over the Dolphins showed something that could shape how Joe Douglas evaluates his roster at the end of the season: New York didn’t need Le’Veon Bell for the run game to be effective.
Take that with a grain of salt given the Dolphins are one of the worst run defenses in the league and Bell is still one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. That said, the idea that New York’s backfield could succeed without Bell is not without its merits and should give Douglas something to think about when deciding to keep Bell past this season.
Consider Bilal Powell’s day as the Jets’ workhorse running back with Bell out sick. The 31-year-old Powell tallied 74 yards on 19 touches for a healthy 3.9 yards per attempt. His rushes were the second-most for a Jets rusher this season (Bell had 21 in Week 2), his yards were the highest for a Jets rusher this season (Bell had 70 in Week 7 vs. the Patriots) and his yards per attempt ranks third for a Jets rusher with at least 12 rushes in a game all season.
Yes, it came against the Dolphins’ 31st-ranked run defense, but Bell only tallied 66 yards on 17 attempts when he played Miami five weeks ago.
So looking at it from a purely statistical perspective, Powell ran better in Adam Gase’s offense than Bell did. Powell had 20 yards on the Jets opening drive and ripped off a couple of nice medium-yardage runs in the first half. He doesn’t offer the same receiving skillset Bell does, but Gase has already proven in the past he doesn’t plan on utilizing Bell’s dual-threat ability as well as the Steelers did, which almost makes the point moot.
Powell isn’t the long-term answer for the Jets at running back. He’s old and has never shown he can be a true bell-cow back. Neither is backup Ty Montgomery, who saw an expanded role and finished with 61 total yards on 12 touches. But after seeing the combination of Powell and Montgomery tally 104 rushing yards against the Dolphins, it begs the question: Is Bell an expensive luxury that the Jets don’t need moving forward?
Bell has been ineffective during his time in New York either due to usage, Gase’s offense or because of his age (he’ll turn 28 in February). Bell is on pace to average only 88.2 scrimmage yards per game this season, which would be the first time he didn’t average at least 100 yards per game since his rookie season in 2013.
But that doesn’t mean the Jets should necessarily end the Bell experiment early.
For one, Bell’s four-year, $52.5 million contract that he signed last offseason would be hard to move on from. There would be a $17 million dead cap hit in 2020 if they did. His contract also makes trading Bell difficult even after the Jets reportedly fielded offers from him at the October trade deadline.
Bell is also a great asset for Sam Darnold and takes the pressure off the rest of the offense. Despite his down season, defenses still respect Bell as a playmaker and key in on him whenever he sees the field. He saw at least 90 percent of the Jets’ offensive snaps the first three weeks and was an important safety valve for the Jets quarterbacks early in the season.
But Bell has slowed down the stretch. His production and offensive snaps have decreased rapidly since Week 9. Whether it’s fatigue or something else, Bell hasn’t looked as fresh as he did early in the season.
This all goes back to the underlying theme that Gase doesn’t need a workhorse back in his offense. While Powell’s 19 rushes were high for a single Jets running back, it was also unusual for the Jets to run the ball 32 times as a team. It was the most attempts by the Jets since Week 11 against the Redskins when the Jets rushed 33 times. Outside of those two games, the Jets typically average 23 rushes per game – 27th in the league.
Bell is on pace to finish with 244 rushing attempts if he plays the final four games of the season, which would be his lowest over a full season since his rookie year and the second-highest of any running backs in a Gase offense since he became an offensive coordinator in 2013.
Is that usage worth a $15.5 million cap hit in 2020 and up to $44 million if Bell plays out his entire four-year contract? Probably not.
Powell and Montgomery aren’t better running backs than Bell. That’s obvious. But their ability to operate just as effectively in Gase’s offense as Bell did in the previous 12 games at a fraction of the price should weigh greatly on the mind of Douglas as he sees all of the holes on his roster.
