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The New York Yankees (86-63) welcome the Boston Red Sox (75-74) to Yankee Stadium for the finale of their 4-game series. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 6-6
The Red Sox lost the 1st 2 games of the series 2-1 Thursday and 5-4 Friday, but won 7-1 Saturday.
Boston, which is 3rd in the AL East, has been better on the road (40-34) than at home (35-40). The Red Sox are 5-4 over their last 9 games, yet just 5-9 over their last 14. Boston is 70-79 against the spread (ATS).
The Yankees lead the AL East and have also been better on the road (45-30), but will be home in this game. They are 41-33 at home and 76-73 ATS. New York won 2 of 3 at home against the Kansas City Royals in the series prior and is 6-3 over its last 9 games.
Red Sox at Yankees projected starters
RHP Kutter Crawford vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
Crawford (8-14, 4.09 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 167 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home loss to the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
- 2024 away stats: 4-6, 4.10 ERA (79 IP, 36 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Yankees: 4-1, 2.83 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 9 appearances (7 starts)
Rodon (14-9, 4.15 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 158 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 10-4 home win over the Royals Monday
- 2024 home stats: 8-2, 3.07 ERA (70 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 12 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 3-4, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 8 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Red Sox at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Yankees -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Red Sox at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Yankees are too expensive to take on the moneyline here, but are worthy of a play on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET YANKEES -1.5 (+115).
The Red Sox have both lost and failed to cover in Crawford’s last 5 starts. They’ll also be going against a pitcher who has been far better at home than on the road this season. Boston is the fifth-worst team at covering after a win as well at just 32-42 ATS.
The Yankees are 6-3 ATS in Rodon’s last 9 starts. They are 56-69 ATS as a favorite as well which sits in the top half of the league. Considering those trends, take YANKEES -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The Red Sox have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and are 0-4-1 O/U in that span. They are 4-9-1 O/U in their last 14. Boston has allowed just 11 runs over its last 4 games as well.
The Yankees are also 0-4-1 O/U in their last 5 and have scored a total of 8 runs in their last 3 games. New York is 2-4 O/U in Rodon’s last 6 starts. Take UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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