Tag: Red Sox Yankees odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (0-2) and New York Yankees (2-0) put a lid on their season-opening three-game with a Sunday night tilt in the Bronx. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Yankees lead 2-0, winning Friday’s game 6-5 and Saturday’s contest 4-2.

The Red Sox beat the Yankees in an AL Wild Card game last season. Boston advanced to the AL Championship Series where it lost to the Houston Astros.

Including last year’s wild card setback, New York is 8-1 in the nine games against Boston.

Red Sox at Yankees: Projected starters

RHP Tanner Houck vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Houck (2021: 1-5, 3.52 ERA) returns for his third Major League season. In 2021, he notched a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, and 11.4 K/9 in 69 IP.

  • Posted a 2.70 ERA in 13 1/3 IP against New York in 2021. Held Yankee batters to a .461 OPS.
  • Walked 9 and struck out 17 in 15 spring training innings.

Montgomery (2021: 6-7, 3.83 ERA) makes his 2022 debut. He logged a 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and 9.3 K/9 through 157.1 IP last season.

  • Has career .743 OPS allowed on the road and a .651 OPS at Yankee Stadium.
  • Pitched five games against the Red Sox in 2021 and held them to a .634 OPS.

Red Sox at Yankees odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:39 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Red Sox at Yankees prediction and picks

Prediction

Yankees 4, Red Sox 3

Money line

Bullpen depth and availability looms large in the analysis of this game. New York’s pen is a bit more taxed, but it’s the more talented group here and 1A closer Jonathan Loáisiga should be available.

Consider a partial-unit play on the YANKEES (-150). The market has moved toward New York in the morning, and that has taken some stream out of this play.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Over/Under

Another game with a wind blowing out to center is in the forecast. But the temps will be lower, and both starters Sunday have some untapped upside. New York can falter at times against strikeout righties, and Houck does well to get ground balls. Montgomery does well to avoid barreled-up contact.

BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-102).

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (0-1) and New York Yankees (1-0) continue their season-opening three-game set Saturday. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Yankees defeated Boston 6-5 in 11 innings Friday. The Red Sox took 10 of 19 games in 2021.

The Red Sox jumped out to an early 3-0 lead but allowed New York to chip away and tie Friday’s game at 4-4 in the eighth. Boston would fall in the 11th to a 3B Josh Donaldson RBI single.

The Yanks bullpen allowed 2 runs (1 earned) in 7 IP Friday. New York batters clubbed 3 HR.

Red Sox at Yankees: Projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Luis Severino

Pivetta (9-8, 4.53 ERA in 2021) draws the start in game No. 2 for Boston. He posted a 1.30 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9, and 10.2 K/9 in 155 IP last season.

  • Had a rocky outing in his lone Yankee Stadium start in 2021 (1 2/3 IP, 7 base runners, 4 ER). Was otherwise tremendous away from home last year, holding opposing batters to a .627 OPS.
  • Current New York batters own an aggregate .817 OPS against him.

Due to injuries and surgery recovery time, Severino pitched just 6 innings last season and has tossed just 18 frames since the end of the 2018 season.

  • Current Boston batters own a .461 OPS against him.

Red Sox at Yankees odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Red Sox at Yankees prediction and picks

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Yankees 5

Money line

Severino is a question mark, especially with how far he can go in this start. He’s backed by a bullpen that was more spent than Boston’s in yesterday’s 11-inning affair.

Pivetta’s road success and some bounce-back gravity make the RED SOX (+130) the best play in Saturday’s game.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Over/Under

For a second straight day, a double-digit wind blowing out to center is in the forecast. Figure a small-to-moderate lean on the OVER 9.5 (+105).

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees (0-0) renew their storied rivalry Friday at 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Red Sox took 10-of-19 games in 2021 and outscored New York 75-74.

The Red Sox scuffled a bit in July and August last season, but made the postseason as a 92-win wild card. After beating the Yankees in a Wild Card game, Boston advanced to the AL Championship Series where it lost to the Houston Astros.

The 2021 New York Yankees played .630 baseball (46-27) in the second half of the season and finished 92-70.

Red Sox at Yankees: Projected starters

RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Eovaldi (2021: 11-9, 3.75 ERA) draws the opening start for Boston. A year ago, he posted a 1.19 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, and 9.6 K/9 in 182 1/3 IP.

  • Eovaldi’s inning count in 2021 marked his most since 2014.
  • He held opposing batters to a .638 OPS at home; allowed a .785 mark on the road.
  • Has career Yankee Stadium ERA of 3.72.

Cole (2021: 16-8, 3.23 ERA) opens for the Yankees for the third time. He logged a 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and 12.1 K/9 in 181 1/3 IP last season.

  • April is Cole’s best month (.587 OPS allowed in 38 career games).
  • Current Boston batters own .801 OPS against him.

Red Sox at Yankees odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:42  p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Red Sox at Yankees prediction and picks

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

The Yankees have carried more value than the Red Sox in futures betting, and New York has the superior bullpen talent and depth. That’s a big key in these early games.

BACK THE YANKEES (-175).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Over/Under

A double-digit wind blowing out to center is in the forecast. Figure a small lean on the OVER 8.5 (-102).

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (69-53) and New York Yankees (68-52) close out a two-day, three-game series Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 9-5 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 in 124 1/3 IP over 23 starts.

  • Has allowed just 1 ER over his last 12 IP spanning two starts, and has a 3.09 ERA in 11 starts away from Fenway Park.
  • Current New York batters own a .847 OPS and .240 isolated power in a small sample against him.

LHP Andrew Heaney is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 7-8 with a 5.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 109 IP over 21 starts.

  • Current Boston batters own a .924 OPS against him.
  • Has a 9.00 ERA across 15 IP in three starts since coming to the Yankees from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline.

Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+159) | Yankees +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 5

Money line (ML)

The Yankees swept a doubleheader Tuesday against the Red Sox and are 15-4 since July 30. New York hurlers have combined to log a 2.75 ERA over that span.

The Crimson Hose are just 6-13 over their last 19 games.

Heaney presents the risk/reward of a starter who has been tagged by hard contact of late but has also been undone by some unkind, and mostly uncontrollable, rates around the margins. For instance, at 18.5% he’s been hurt by a high rate of fly balls landing as home runs.

Still, Pivetta gives the Red Sox an edge in the starting pitching department. All the way around and in every other way the Yanks figure as the better team right now.

BACK THE YANKEES (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

New York has played a lot of 1- and 2-run games. Take a PASS on trying to get them by with multiple runs to spare on Wednesday.

Over/Under (O/U)

In their last 27 games at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees own a .789 OPS and strong strike-zone management analytics.

A humid summer night and a couple of fly-ball pitchers make for a lean on the OVER 10.5 (-102).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (69-51) and New York Yankees (66-52) renew their ancient rivalry with a three-game series at Yankee Stadium. That set gets underway Tuesday at 1:05 p.m. ET with Game 1 of a day-night doubleheader. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tanner Houck is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 0-3 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 30 2/3 IP spanning six starts and two relief appearances.

  • Allowed 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits across 5 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. Had posted a 1.17 ERA over his four previous second-half outings. That stretch began with two games against these Yankees, one in relief and one as a starter. Logged 7 2/3 combined IP in those efforts.
  • Has pitched around a .356 batting average on balls in play.

LHP Jordan Montgomery is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 4-5 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 across 114 2/3 IP over 21 starts.

  • Returning from the COVID-19 list; last started Aug. 1.
  • Allowed just 1 ER over his last 3 starts (15 2/3 IP). That stretch began with 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Red Sox July 22. Has held current Boston batters to a .639 OPS and .094 isolated power over his career.

Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-220) | Yankees -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Red Sox 4, Yankees 3

Money line (ML)

The ball club nicknamed the Bronx Bombers has pitched its way back into the legitimate AL playoff race over recent weeks. The Yankees enter Tuesday’s twin bill with a three-game winning streak in tow and they are 13-4 since July 30. New York hurlers have combined to log a 2.82 ERA over that span.

However, New York is just 3-4 since the All-Star break against a Red Sox club that has had its number all season. The Red Sox are 10-3 with a plus-18 run differential in the head-to-head season series. The Crimson Hose have stumbled of late against other opponents and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games.

That’s despite a three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend.

With Houck on the mound and Montgomery returning from the COVID-19 list, the Red Sox are worthy of being road favorites. Bet RED SOX (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

New York has played a lot of 1- and 2-run games, and even from a lead, their not-at-full-efficiency bullpen has been capable of dragging them into 1- and 2-run setbacks. The Yanks of August have been a solid club: better but not great on offense, but also a more diverse one with more balance and athleticism since the trade deadline.

A third look at Houck figures to go better. PASS and stick with the Red Sox for the win.

Over/Under (O/U)

The 7-inning game structure has this total below 8, and the pitching that sets up for the front half of the doubleheader will be full of strong options on both sides. With a slight lean on going lower still, TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-135).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (47-44) host the Boston Red Sox (56-37) Sunday for their three-game series finale at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York finally beat Boston Saturday 3-1 to even the series in a game called after the sixth inning due to rain. Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole pitched all six innings, allowing just one earned run on five hits and two walks while striking out 11.

Season series: Red Sox lead 7-1.

LHP Martin Perez is Boston’s projected starter. Perez is 7-5 with a 4.04 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over 18 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-2, with 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 4 K vs. the Philadelphia Phillies July 10.
  • Perez took a no-decision in a June 25 start against the Yankees with 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER (3 unearned runs), 6 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 5-3 win.
    • vs. Yankees on the current roster: 91 at-bats with a .286/.398/.538 slash line, 21/14 K/BB, 6 HR and 19 RBIs.

RHP Jameson Taillon makes his 18th start for the Yankees. Taillon is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in New York’s 8-7 loss at the Houston Astros July 11 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
  • Taillon picked up a no-decision earlier this year vs. Boston (June 5) with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K in a 7-3 loss.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+150) | Yankees +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

BET the YANKEES (-115) for 1 unit because, despite a down-year thus far, New York’s lineup hits lefties well and the Yankees bullpen is still one of the best in the majors even with closer LHP Aroldis Chapman‘s recent struggles.

The Yankees hitters rank in the top 5 of the majors in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate and New York’s bullpen is second in WAR.

Furthermore, Perez is just 0-2 with a 6.53 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 15 ER), six home runs allowed, 10 BB and 17 K in his last five starts against the Yankees.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Yankees -1.5 (+165) alternate run line since I’m on New York’s money line.

However, I’m going to stay away since the Yankees beat the Red Sox for the first time this season Saturday and their lineup has been by far the most disappointing unit in the majors.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 9.5 (-120) because it would be a “contrarian play” against a majority of the market that is backing the Over and the Under has cashed in four of the last five Red Sox-Yankees meetings.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (56-36) and New York Yankees (46-44) play the second game of a three-game set Saturday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 103 1/3 IP across 18 starts.

Eovaldi was tuned up for 5 earned runs and 9 hits in 5 2/3 innings in his most recent start July 6 on the road against the Los Angeles Angels. While he took the loss he did pick up 9 strikeouts.

The All-Star is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 13 strikeouts across 13 2/3 innings in two starts against his former team this season.

RHP Gerrit Cole is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 across 114 innings across 18 starts.

Cole posted a complete-game shutout in a 1-0 win at Houston against his former club last Saturday. He allowed just 3 hits and 2 walks with 12 strikeouts.

Cole allowed 6 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks with 6 strikeouts over 5 innings in a loss at Boston June 27. He also allowed a season-high 3 home runs in that setback.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:38 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Yankees -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Yankees 2

Money line (ML)

The RED SOX (+110) are the play in this middle game based upon Eovaldi’s success against his former team. The Yankees have seen Cole make just one start against the Red Sox this season, and it was a complete disaster.

Back Boston for the road win for the second straight day.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The RED SOX +1.5 (-175) is a decent play if you want a little bit of insurance as the Yankees just cannot be trusted to cover their side of the run line.

I like Boston better on the money line but if you would like a little insurance, and are willing to pay for it, the Red Sox are the play on the run line catching the run and a half.

Over/Under (O/U)

The under cashed in Friday’s shutout by the Red Sox, and in a strong pitching matchup between Eovaldi and Cole UNDER 8 (-115) is a good bet here, too.

The Under is 6-2-1 in the past nine starts by Eovaldi, including 2-0 in his two outings against the Yankees.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (55-36) and New York Yankees (46-43) kick-off the second half of the MLB season Thursday by starting a four-game series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Red Sox lead 6-0.

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez is on the rubber for the Red Sox. He is 6-5 with a 5.52 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 over 17 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 5 K at the Los Angeles Angels last Wednesday.
  • Rodriguez is 1-0 against the Yankees this season with 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 1 BB and 15 K in two starts.
    • vs. Yankees on the current roster: 175 at-bats with a .251/.347/.474 slash line, 54/24 K/BB, 10 HR and 27 RBIs.

RHP Domingo German is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 4-5 with a 4.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 81 IP spanning 15 starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Picked up a hold in 2 IP out of the bullpen, he allowed 2 earned runs on 3 hits and no walks with 2 strikeouts.
  • German is 0-1 against Boston this season with a 3.72 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 6 K in two starts.
    • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 84 at-bats with a .238/.316/.381 slash line, 22/8 K/BB, 2 HR and 8 RBIs.

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Red Sox at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+140) | Yankees +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Yankees 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

It’s the first game back from the All-Star Break and the Yankees need to kick it into high gear. They sit eight games back of the Red Sox for first place in the AL East and are on the cusp of ruining a season in their title window.

Aside from urgency, there are a couple of other reasons why I’ll BET the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit.

First of all, German’s pitching peripherals against current Red Sox hitters are a shade better than Rodriguez’s against active Yankees batters.

German has a 3.50 FIP with a .332 expected wOBA and .410 expected slugging percentage against Boston’s lineup while Rodriguez has a 5.78 FIP, .372 expected wOBA and .512 expected slugging percentage vs. New York’s lineup.

Also, for all of New York’s struggles this season, the Yankees lineup grades well against left-handed pitching. New York’s lineup ranks in the top-six of MLB in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate vs. lefty pitchers.

And while Rodriguez has pitched well against New York this season, I think the Yankees hitters will square him up better in their third try Thursday. TAKE the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a quarter unit if at all because eight of the last 10 Red Sox-Yankees meetings were decided by 2 or more runs.

However, New York has only a 34.9% cover rate as a home favorite this season (15-28 ATS) and the implied win probability of the alternate run line price is 37.74%.

Furthermore, Boston has the second-highest cover rate as a road underdog at 82.6% (19-4 ATS).

That being said, I’d roll the dice on New York’s alternate run line at that price given the high likelihood the winner of this match wins by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because I only have a slight “lean” toward the Over 10 (-105) but we’d be getting the worst of the number since Red Sox-Yankees opened with an 8.5-run total before the market steamed it up to the current price.

All that line movement plus New York’s inconsistent lineup and the strength of each bullpen equals a PASS on the total.

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