The report this morning from the Sun Sentinel’s Omar Kelly that the Miami Dolphins are looking to trade veteran linebacker Raekwon McMillan comes as a bit of a surprise — but if you’ve been watching the Dolphins in their attempts to get better on defense, the clues have been there. Miami was aggressive in loading up on linebackers and Brian Flores’ defense was intentional with their dispersement of his reps in 2019 to ensure he wasn’t on the field in certain situations.

For a defense that covets being multiple and being able to hit opposing defenses with a slew of different coverage assignments and run fits with the same personnel, McMillan’s limited coverage skills do stand out like a sore thumb. But that doesn’t mean McMillan can’t be a valuable player — he’s got terrific physicality and a strong sense for sticking his nose into gaps and finding his way to the football as a run defender.

What could the Dolphins hopefully bring back in a trade of McMillan?

He’ll be most valuable to teams that don’t have stout defenders on the front level or to teams who are expecting to contend but simply don’t have the linebacker depth to hold firm against more physical offenses. Kelly’s report indicated that the Dolphins are looking for a “mid-round draft pick”. Some teams may be desperate enough to give the Dolphins one but the team isn’t likely to return a top-100 selection for McMillan based on his current NFL resume. Miami’s best case scenario would be a team buying into the linebacker’s youth and seeing him as a long-term piece — which could help the team overlook the fact that McMillan is in the final year of his contract and could be lost to free agency at the end of the year if no terms can be agreed to.

This is a sticky proposition for the Dolphins. McMillan indeed has value. And trying to trade him now versus letting him walk makes sense. But his status as a player in a contract year who got reduced snaps last year isn’t going to make it easy to pitch teams coughing up a prized pick for his services. Our guess? If McMillan ends up getting dealt, it will probably be for a 2021 5th-round selection.

One of the areas of emphasis for the Miami Dolphins this offseason was the linebacker room. The Dolphins would eventually spend significant money in adding LB Kyle Van Noy to the room from New England but the team also added veteran players like Elandon Roberts and Kamu Grugier-Hill to the mix as well, which will give Miami’s defense a completely different feel this season.

But a byproduct of all that investment would presumably be that the Dolphins aren’t satisfied with the young linebackers on the roster, especially LB Raekwon McMillan. McMillan saw his snaps cut significantly under the new coaching staff in an effort to keep him out of pass coverage situations — a method that works well but ultimately did leave the Dolphins susceptible to being predictable with McMillan in the fray. And, with the former Ohio State linebacker entering into a contract year, the Dolphins’ handling of the linebacker group didn’t seem to be a promising endorsement of long-term stability.

And now, according to the Sun Sentinel’s Omar Kelly, the Dolphins are reportedly shopping McMillan around, hoping to find a trade partner for the physical run-stuffer.

Miami Dolphins linebacker Raekwon McMillan is entering into a big year in 2020. The fourth year linebacker is in a contract year — his last chance to prove to the Miami Dolphins that he’s worth a pricy long-term commitment to keep him as a fixture of the defense for the long-haul. And, if we get to the end of this season and McMillan has convinced the Dolphins to make that commitment, he’s going to have earned every cent of whatever deal he signs.

Because, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, McMillan is going to have to earn his starting role for the second consecutive season. Last year McMillan had to stave off former CFL talent Sam Eguavoen. And, for at least a fair bit of training camp, it looked like Eguavoen may wrestle the gig away. This year’s contender to McMillan’s starting role is free agent signing Kamu Grugier-Hill, who signed with Miami after four years in Philadelphia.

“One thing I’ve been told is not to overlook Kamu Grugier-Hill in the battle with Raekwon McMillan for a starting inside linebacker job,” wrote Jackson.

“Grugier-Hill, who started a combined 16 games for Philadelphia during the past two seasons, might be the fastest and best coverage linebacker on the team.”

Grugier-Hill has a safety at Eastern Washington before entering the NFL and was credited with a 4.45s 40-yard dash and a 38.5″ vertical leap — so his athleticism and coverage upside is certainly understandable amid his conversion to linebacker. But for McMillan, Grugier-Hill represents a new challenge that will pit him against a completely different style of player. If McMillan is ultimately phased into more of a rotational role in the end, it may speak more to the style of defense Brian Flores wishes to play.

But that end result will likely put the Dolphins into a challenging spot with McMillan — either play hardball with his negotiations due to the specificity of his role, or let him walk because he’s not viewed as a preferred long-term option.

The good news? It’s ultimately in McMillan’s hands. If he executes this summer and fall, he should once again come out victorious in the fight for the starting ILB gig. But to hear he’s even in this position once more raises more than a few questions about the long-term outcome.

The Miami Dolphins are facing yet another offseason in 2021 without significant amounts of outgoing free agents. But, unlike in 2020, the Dolphins will have a few priority players that they will need to decide how to handle — there will be more difficult conversations to be had than what Miami had to deal with this past year. Key among Miami’s expiring talents is linebacker Raekwon McMillan, who is a standout in the run game and a booming presence between the tackles.

McMillan will be an interesting case study in valuation, as the Dolphins worked hard in 2019 to avoid putting McMillan in situations where he’d be exposed in coverage — which is a greater courtesy than what former head coach Adam Gase was willing to afford the former Ohio State Buckeye defender. But that work to keep McMillan out of coverage resulted in a steep drop off in snaps — and a repeat performance in 2020 could see McMillan’s free agent value diminish if he’s perceived not to be a three down linebacker.

Quite frankly, he shouldn’t be. Because yes — if McMillan was on the field for 90% of the snaps, he’d be able to challenge the NFL’s tackle leaders. But his individual stats for the sake of the benefit of the team is certainly not going to be a status quo direction for Coach Brian Flores.

The best case scenario for McMillan is to continue to play a specific role in Miami’s defense — the plug in the middle. But that role flies directly into the face of McMillan’s production and as a byproduct, his potential cash figure for his second contract. Former Green Bay Packer and now New York Giant Blake Martinez is a great example. Martinez is well known for a strong trigger against the run (although he does miss tackles at a frustrating rate at times) and is, like McMillan, not a great asset against the pass. He’s played 99% of the Packers’ snaps the past two seasons, logged 299 total tackles and 15 tackles for loss over the last two seasons in Green Bay. But he’s also been targeted 135 times, given up nearly 1,000 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns (opposing quarterbacks have a rating > 100.0 in each of the last two years targeting him in coverage).

But that didn’t stop the Giants from giving Martinez a 3-year, $30M contract this offseason with $19M in guarantees. McMillan won’t command that much if the Dolphins keep him playing to his strengths — but that in turn will make McMillan more valuable to the Dolphins; both as an economic value and for eliminating his liability reps against the pass.

The Dolphins can point to the contract of Patriots LB Dont’a Hightower for inspiration and for valuation. His annual average salary is in excess of $8.5M per season and he’s played somewhere between 50-70% of the Patriots snaps each season. With a strong season in 2020, McMillan could position himself for that kind of valuation. But if his snap count lingers around 50% once more (it was 46% in 2019) to keep him best positioned for success, the Dolphins should be able to lop a million or so off than annual average salary and be able to strike a deal.