Tag: preseason projections

CBS Sports projects SEC order of finish, Florida among most underrated in conference

Florida could be in for a bounce-back year under new head coach Billy Napier, but the Gators have their doubters. Here’s why some experts at CBS Sports think UF might be the most underrated team in the SEC.

The 2022 college football season is just two days away from starting, and the Florida Gators’ season begins in just over a week. Naturally, various media outlets have weighed in on the nation’s most-talked-about conference, and CBS Sports is the latest to put out a preseason projected order of finish list for the SEC.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the experts at CBS Sports project Alabama to win the SEC West and Georgia to win the SEC East with the Tide coming out on top as conference champions. The expectation is another two-team appearance from the SEC in this year’s College Football Playoff.

While the top of each conference seems fairly clear-cut, the experts didn’t quite agree on where Florida should land. Two of them, David Cobb and Chip Patterson, have Florida finishing second. Barrett Sallee, Shehan Jeyarajah and Jerry Palm all have UF finishing third, and Dennis Dodd and Tom Fornelli have the Gators coming in fourth. That means the Sept. 10 and 24 game against Kentucky and Tennessee could decide Florida’s standing in the conference when all is said and done.

Cobb and Jeyarajah view the Gators as perhaps the most underrated team in the conference. They wrote a joint opinion in support of Florida and it boiled down to Dan Mullen‘s final season being a waste of talent and developmental time. Under a new and motivated head coach, Florida should be able to unlock plenty of untapped potential in some of these players.

Expectations for the Gators seem rooted in last season’s 6-7 record, but that performance was hardly indicative of the possibilities given the team’s roster. Relative to everyone else in the SEC East except Georgia, Florida still has the most complete team. Motivation seemed lacking in 2021 as Dan Mullen’s tenure limped to completion, and the team completely imploded down the stretch. That should not be an issue this season with a new coach in Billy Napier and defensive coordinator in Patrick Toney, both of whom have proven track records of success.

If Florida can get out to a hot start early, there’s the potential to run away with the second-place spot in the SEC East and at least fight for a spot in the conference championship against Georgia. That requires victories over the Volunteers and Wildcats first, though, so one thing at a time.

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LSU falls outside the top 25 in final preseason SP+ projections

Will the Tigers outperform these projections?

For the first time since 2000, the Tigers enter the season sitting outside of both the preseason USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25. It’s clear the human minds are not high on LSU, and it seems that the analytics agree.

In the final preseason projections from ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system, the Tigers are lower than they would like. However, they are just three spots outside of the top 25 at No. 28. SP+ likes LSU’s defense (No. 22) more than its offense (No. 34), though both rank squarely in the top quartile of the FBS, which would be a welcome change from the last two seasons.

However, when it comes to wins and losses, the numbers aren’t as friendly. SP+ project just 6.5 overall wins (3.1 in conference play) during coach Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm. While a seven-win season is possible with the gauntlet of an SEC West schedule, a one-game improvement from last season’s 6-7 finish could result in a short honeymoon period for Kelly.

There’s a decent chance LSU’s resume is being weighed down by returning production, which is one of SP+’s primary considerations for preseason projections. The Tigers rank 70th in the FBS in returning production, bringing back 65% of its defensive production and just 61% of its offensive production.

But in fairness, a lot of that production is being replaced with a handful of talented transfers, all of whom bring experience to the table. You would think that a six-win team losing 10 players to the draft and a number more to the transfer portal would be in dire straits, but the Tigers actually have a fairly veteran roster, all things considered.

It’s clear that both the polls and the computers are hedging LSU this fall, and considering it’s Year 1 for an SEC West team with an uncertain quarterback situation, that’s understandable. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers aren’t able to outperform these projections in Kelly’s first campaign.

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Florida cracks the top 25 in ESPN’s preseason SP+ projections

The Gators rank 18th in the preseason SP+ projections from ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

It’s hard to know exactly what the expectation should be for coach Billy Napier in his first season at UF in 2022. He inherits a team that went 6-7 last year and has some major recruiting deficiencies that he’s only just begun to rectify.

At the same time, the Gators had a losing record in 2017, as well, before former coach Dan Mullen took over, and the culture change and excitement in the building was enough for Florida to win 10 games in Mullen’s first season.

Expecting a similar jump for Napier may be unfair, given he takes over arguably a worse situation talent-wise than Mullen did, but fans also expect to see at least some signs of progress in Year 1.

The preseason SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly see UF having a bounce-back season as it ranks 18th in the projections heading into 2022. According to Connelly, these projections take into account returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Napier is an offensive mind and Florida’s offense was overall solid last season despite some issues at the quarterback spot, and as a result, the unit is expected to be much better than the defense. Offensively, the team ranks 13th in the preseason projections but just 39th on defense, where it struggled a lot in 2021 and has to replace a number of outgoing starters.

The Gators will hope these predictions hold true and the team is at least competitive against SEC competition next year after a 2-6 finish in conference play.

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247Sports preseason poll projects Texas to finish fourth in the Big 12

247Sports polled several experts around its network regarding the projected order of finish in the Big 12 this season.

The expectations surrounding the Texas football program are sky high. Continue reading “247Sports preseason poll projects Texas to finish fourth in the Big 12”