The Green Bay Packers upset the Detroit Lions, improved to 5-6 and nearly doubled their chances of making the playoffs on Thanksgiving Day.
The 29-22 win over the Lions was the Packers’ third win in the last four games. At 2-5, the Packers looked dead in the water. A month later, Matt LaFleur’s team is alive and well.
The Packers entered Week 12 with a 24 percent chance of making the playoffs, via the playoff simulator at the New York Times. Not great, but far from of it. The upset win at Ford Field was season changing. The Packers’ playoff odds improved to 45 percent after beating the Lions.
At 5-6, the Packers are the No. 8 seed in the NFC and one game back of the Seattle Seahawks for the final wildcard spot.
Why was the win over the Lions so important? The Packers now have a legitimate shot at getting to 10 wins and the path to the postseason is increasingly clear.
While a visit from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be tough next week, the final five-game stretch is manageable: at New York Giants, vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Carolina Panthers, at Minnesota Vikings and vs. Chicago Bears.
Per the New York Times, if the Packers lose to the Chiefs next week but then win five straight games to end the season, the team’s chances of making the playoffs would be close to 100 percent. Even if the Packers lose to the Chiefs and win four of the five six games, their odds end up around 75-80 percent in the simulator.
Long story short, the Packers going 4-2 or 5-1 to finish the season provides a clear path to the postseason. Beating the Lions was a critical piece of the puzzle. They stole a game no one was expecting them to win and are playing their best football at a critical part of the schedule. What was a long shot is now readily available for the Packers.