Tag: Phillies Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) play the middle contest of a 3-game series with the New York Mets (28-27) Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0; New York won season series 14-5 in 2022

The Phillies suffered a 2-0 loss in the series opener Tuesday night in Queens. It was Philadelphia’s 1st shutout loss since May 14 in Colorado, and the 5th time the Phils have been blanked this season.

Philadelphia has won just 2 of its last 9 games on the road, while cashing at a 2-5 clip in the last 7 games inside the NL East. The Phils are also 1-4 in the last 5 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher.

New York had allowed 21 runs in the final 2 games of the road series against the Rockies, so the shutout back at sea level was nice. It was the 1st shutout win for the Mets since May 5 at home against Colorado and the 4th shutout victory this season.

The Mets have won 6 in a row, while going 7-2 in the last 9 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. New York is 5-2 in the past 7 tries after posting a victory, too.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Nola (4-3, 4.59 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 68 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (3 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in an 8-5 road loss Thursday vs. the Atlanta Braves
  • 2023 road splits: 2-2, 5.02 ERA (43 IP, 24 ER) with a .244 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts

Carrasco (1-2, 6.75 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 10-1 road win Thursday vs. the Chicago Cubs
  • 2023 home splits: 0-1, 10.24 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 11 ER) with 5 BB, 4 K and a .289 OBA in 2 starts

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

The PHILLIES (-125) are a strong play on the road, as they look for a bounce back after getting blanked.

Phils OF Bryce Harper should be rested, as he and his teammates did not play on Memorial Day, and he was given a scheduled day off Tuesday, too, after playing every day since May 2.

I like the Philadelphia offense to get it done against Carrasco. SS Trea Turner has rolled up 6 hits, including 3 doubles and 3 RBI, in just 8 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander. Look for the Phils to roll.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+135) are a solid play on the run line, as they look to bounce back, although Nola does have a 4.59 ERA which is a little concerning.

While Philadelphia has failed to cover the run line as a favorite in 4 straight, including 2 outright losses, I just don’t trust Carrasco. Plus, the Mets +1.5 (-160) are just 1-2 on the run line in 3 games as an underdog since May 3.

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Over/Under

The OVER 8.5 (-120) is a solid play in the middle game.

I expressed my concern about Carrasco, who has a 6.75 ERA, Nola has been very giving lately, too. He served up 3 homers last time out in Atlanta, and he has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his past 7 starts dating back to mid-April.

In fact, as far as the player props are concerned, I like both CARRASCO OVER 2.5 RUNS (-130) and NOLA OVER 2.5 RUNS (+105) for an added bonus.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-28) and New York Mets (27-27) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Mets won 14-5 last year

The Phillies split a 4-game set with the Atlanta Braves over the weekend and have been doing a lot of splitting. They’re 5-5 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Phils are in 4th place in the NL East, 6.5 games behind the Braves, and need to improve on their 11-18 road record to make a run.

The Mets just dropped 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies as they were outslugged 10-7 Saturday and 11-0 Sunday. New York is 6-4 and 10-10 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. The Mets are just ahead of Philadelphia in 3rd place, 5 games behind the Braves. They are 12-9 at home and have won 5 in a row in Flushing Meadows.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Suarez (0-1, 9.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 11 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
  • 4 career starts vs. Mets: 0-1, 4.41 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 11 K in 16 1/3 IP

Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 48 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K against Chicago Cubs Wednesday
  • Has issued 3 or more BB in 8 of his 9 starts
  • Much better at home: 2-1, 1.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP vs. 2-2, 6.12 ERA, 1.84 WHIP on the road

Phillies at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Mets have trouble with lefties, going 7-14 on the season against them, but Suarez doesn’t figure to be around long. He has pitched 4, 2 and 5 IP in his 3 starts and allowed at least 3 ER in each. The real question is can Senga keep the walks under control? Philadelphia is 23rd in MLB in walks per game, which is another good sign for the Mets.

The Phils are just 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in New York and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings overall.

Take the METS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

Neither team is good on the RL this season because they’ve disappointed around .500 much of the season. Philly is 21-32 on the RL (13-16 on the road) and the Mets are 19-35 (7-14 at home).

There have been multi-run wins between these teams in 6 of the last 10 outings. Philadelphia is 16th with a 4.11 bullpen ERA, and New York is 20th at 4.29. We’ll PASS here because I have a good beat on the total.

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Over/Under

There are a lot of reasons to like the Over Tuesday. The wind is blowing out toward left field at 10 mph, so 1B Pete Alonso‘s eyes should light up as he’s hitting .279 with 6 homers and 11 RBI against lefties this year.

The Over cashed in 3 of the last 4 between the clubs and is 4-0-1 in the last 5 for the Mets vs. a left-hander.

Take the OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (31-17) host the Philadelphia Phillies (21-26) in the finale of their 3-game series at Citi Field on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 8-3, outscoring the Phillies by 21 runs (61-40)

The Mets beat the Phillies 8-2 Saturday with the standout performers being SS Francisco Lindor (2-for-3, 2 runs, 3 RBIs) and LF Jeff McNeil (1-for-3, including a 3-run homer).

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Chris Bassitt 

Wheeler is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: 7-3 road victory Monday at the Atlanta Braves with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 HR, 0 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: One start, a 2-0 home loss April 12 with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.

Bassitt is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 53 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Mets’ 13-12 loss at the San Francisco Giants Tuesday with 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 6-1 home victory May 8 with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Money line

BET PHILLIES (+102).

Wheeler has been lights out this month after a slow start to the season due to an ailing offseason injury.

Wheeler’s season debut was pushed back 5 games. He only threw 65 pitches over 4 2/3 innings in that start, which was against the Mets April 12.

In May, Wheeler is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 16.5 K/BB rate with 3 quality starts out of his 4 outings.

Though a 1st-round pick by the Giants in 2009, Wheeler made his MLB debut for the Mets in 2013. Since leaving New York for Philly after the 2019 season, he has pitched well vs. the Mets. He is 4-2 in 9 career starts against the Mets with a 2.58 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 6.6 K/BB rate.

BET 1 UNIT ON THE PHILLIES (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS .

The -210 price is too chalky and not worth the risk. Plus, the Phillies are 7-12 RL vs. National League East foes.

Over/Under

PASS.

Philly is 12-4 O/U as a road underdog, while New York is 12-9-1 O/U as a home favorite. But Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks 20th in park factor.

Plus, the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in New York.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (21-25) meet the New York Mets (30-17) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: N.Y. leads 7-3 and the Mets have a plus-15 run differential.

N.Y. held off a Philly 6-run top of the 6th-inning rally to win the series opener 8-6 Friday. Mets 1B Pete Alonso hit 2-for-2 with a double, 1 home run and 4 RBIs and N.Y.’s pitching staff struck out 12 Phillies batters.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Taijuan Walker 

Eflin is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 home win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 12 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: Loss, 10-6, May 1 in N.Y. with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K.

Walker is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 30 IP across 6 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 2-0, Sunday at the Colorado Rockies with 7-scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 4 BB and 7 K over 3 starts.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (+110) because Eflin is having a career year thus far and the line is stuck even though a majority of the action is on the Mets.

Eflin has career bests in several advanced pitching categories and grades in the 82nd percentile or better in expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, per Statcast.

The sportsbooks must be taking respected money on the Phillies because more than 75% of the bets placed at the time of writing are on the Mets (according to Pregame.com) but this line hasn’t budged off the opener.

This line is suspiciously low in the first place. N.Y.’s lineup and bullpen rank higher than Philly’s in several advanced statistics and the Phillies are 13-19 overall vs. right-handed starters while the Mets are 24-9 against righties. Yet N.Y.’s ML is set at only -135. Hmmm.

BET the PHILLIES (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS even though the Phillies +1.5 (-190) should cash but it’s a little too expensive. However, I wouldn’t hate parlaying Philly’s RL with another similarly priced line for a better payout because the Phillies are 12-7 RL as underdogs (10-5 RL as road underdogs).

Over/Under

PASS because the O/U trends are all over the place for Phillies-Mets.

Philly is 6-0-1 O/U in the last 7 games as a road underdog and 15-7 O/U in away games. But, N.Y. is 17-20-2 O/U as a favorite and 0-4 O/U in Walker’s last 4 home starts. The Phillies-Mets are also 3-9-1 O/U over their last 12 meetings in N.Y.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (11-11) and New York Mets (15-7) meet in the rubber match of their 3-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is 7:08 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillis vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets hold a 3-2 season series lead, having taken 2 of 3 in Philly April 11-13 and splitting the first 2 games of this series.

The Phillies have won 5 of their 6. They swept a 4-game home series against the Colorado Rockies and beat the Mets 4-1 Saturday.

The Mets have lost 2 of their last 3. However, they’ve won every series they’ve played this season, losing just 1 game in each set.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Eflin (1-1, 3.20 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 4 BB and 15 K through 19 2/3 IP.

  • Eflin went 6 innings in his last start and picked up his first win of 2022, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits.
  • He started twice last season against the Mets with a 2.25 ERA (3 ER, 12 IP and no decisions.

Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 0.76 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • After allowing 3 earned runs in his first start of the season, he has given up only 2 in his last 19 innings.
  • He pitched 7 innings in each of his last 2 starts and struck out 10 in each game.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-155) | Mets -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 2

Money line

PASS.

It is right on the edge of being too pricy to bet the Mets (-180) and having it be worth your time.

The Phillies are 3-6 on the road and Scherzer has been just fantastic in his last 3 starts.

I like the Mets to win this game but don’t like the bet. PASS

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Run line/Against the spread

The Mets have won all 4 of Scherzer’s starts this season by at least 2 runs. Thirteen of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

Eight of the Phillies’ 11 losses are by more than 1 run.

The Mets are 4-1 ATS this season against the Phillies.

I like the Mets to win and to cover, which gives you the best value of the night. TAKE THE METS -1.5 (+125).

Over/Under

Three of the 5 games between the Mets and Phillies this season have had 5 or fewer runs.

Scherzer has not allowed more than 1 run in any of his last 3 starts.

I anticipate a low-scoring pitching duel between Eflin and Scherzer.

Take UNDER 6.5 (-107).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (10-11) visit the New York Mets (15-6) Saturday for the second of their 3-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York starting pitcher Tylor Megill and four Mets relievers combined to a throw a no-hitter in New York’s 3-0 series-opening victory over Philly Friday.

Season series: New York leads 3-1, outscoring Philly 18-11.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Taijuan Walker 

Gibson (2-1, 3.47 ERA) beat the Rockies 8-2 Monday, throwing 5 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 3 H, 2 HR and 2 BB with 4 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.68 FIP with a .243 expected batting average (xBA), .296 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .339 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.3 K% and 87.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 178 plate appearances (PA).

Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has only pitched 2-scoreless innings before going on the IL with bursitis in his right shoulder that’s kept him sidelined the past couple of weeks. His only start came against Philly on April 11 where he struck out four Phillies, walked zero and allowed no hits.

  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: 1-2 with a 3.15 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 over 7 starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 6.71 FIP with a .257 xBA, .362 xwOBA, .567 xSLG, 21.2 K% and 87.9 mph EV in 118 PA.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (+110) because I’m fading the Mets (-135) following their no-hitter since they used a bunch of relief pitchers and Walker will be on a pitch limit with it being his first start back from the IL.

Furthermore, Gibson’s pitching peripherals both to start the year and versus New York’s lineup are amazing whereas Walker’s advanced pitching numbers against this Phillies lineup are poor.

Also, the Phillies appear to be the contrarian side since most of the cash and bets placed are on the Mets, according to Tipico Sportsbook. A contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation in sports betting because the public loves to bet favorites and the house usually wins.

BET PHILLIES (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

The Phillies +1.5 (-200) is too expensive and I’m not confident enough in Philadelphia to bet its -1.5 alternate RL at a plus-money payout. Also, the Mets -1.5 (+160) have clear edges in hitting and bullpen pitching, so New York could backdoor cover the RL versus Philly’s poor bullpen.

Over/Under

PASS.

Most of the action is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged off the opener so that leads me to think that the Under may be the sharp play. But, I’m fading New York’s pitching staff of its no-hitter-high, and Philly’s bullpen cannot be trusted.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (14-6) host the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) Friday for the start of a 3-game set at Citi Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly completed a 4-game home sweep of the Colorado Rockies Thursday after losing back-to-back 2-1 series to the visiting Milwaukee Brewers and at the Rockies last week.

New York has won all 6 series so far this year but had a 3-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 10-5 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals, which featured a bench-clearing brouhaha.

Season series: New York leads 2-1, outscoring Philly 15-11.

Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Tylor Megill 

Nola (1-2, 3.74 ERA) pitched a 7-inning. scoreless gem in Philly’s 1-0 loss Sunday night in Milwaukee, striking out 9 with just 1 H and 1 BB.

  • 2022 vs. the Mets: Lost 9-6 at home behind 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K April 13.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.26 FIP with a .246 expected batting average (xBA), .320 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .379 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.3 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 246 plate appearances (PA).

Megill (3-0, 2.35 ERA) beat the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday 6-2, working 6 2/3 IP with 2 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 7 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: Win 2-0 in 5 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K at Philly April 12.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.36 FIP with a .333 xBA, .397 xwOBA, .609 xSLG, 23.1 K% and 94.0 mph EV in 26 PA.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 2

Money line

BET METS (-130).

They have a clear edge in two of the three most important phases of baseball (relief pitching and hitting) and their ML price is cheap because Nola might be a tad overrated. There is value in fading Nola coming off an impressive start on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

New York’s lineup has the best WAR in the MLB (per FanGraphs) and ranks in the top 3 of wRC+, wOBA and BB/K versus right-handed pitching, better than the Phillies in each metric.

New York’s bullpen ranks first in xFIP, second in WAR and fifth in home runs allowed per 9 innings. Philly’s bullpen is 18th in WAR and 19th in xFIP.

BET 1 UNIT ON METS (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the METS -1.5 (+170) because it’s a fat payout, New York is 4-2 RL as a home favorite and New York’s lineup should rake Philly’s below-average bullpen.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+110) only because this is a “sharp” total.

There’s more money on the Under, while more bets have been placed on the Over (per Pregame.com), which indicates the professionals are hitting the Under.

Also, Phillies-Mets is 1-7-2 O/U in their last 10 meetings, the weather forecast is predicting roughly 12 mph winds blowing in from left-center field and Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (74-72) and New York Mets (72-75) tangle Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET as they open a three-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 13-9 with a 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 through 195 1/3 IP over 29 starts.

  • Owns a 2.15 ERA over four starts against New York this season. Has held current Mets batters to a .620 aggregate OPS and .071 isolated power.
  • Has bounced back from a shaky August (4.81 ERA) by allowing just 1 ER over two starts this month. Even his subpar August included a 9-inning shutout against these Mets Aug. 8.

RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 7-9 with a 4.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 144 2/3 IP spanning 26 starts and a relief outing.

  • Has held current Phils bats to a .559 OPS. Owns a 3.80 ERA against Philadelphia this season.
  • Has been pounded by hard contact in posting a 7.16 ERA over his last three starts. Coughed up 6 home runs over 16 1/3 in that stretch.
  • Owns a 3.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at Citi Field this season.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are coming off back-to-back wins over the Chicago Cubs but a 3-3 homestand. They are 5-8 over their last 13 games and Philadelphia hurlers have compiled a 5.37 ERA over that stretch.

The Mets have also struggled on the mound of late. New York is 4-8 with a 4.92 ERA over its last dozen games and the Mets head into this series off three straight losses to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Performance in one-run games and a couple other metrics around the margins peg the Phillies as being slightly overvalued with their record and the Mets as slightly undervalued with theirs.

Walker’s history against Philadelphia adds to the mix, and the result is a lean on the METS (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS, although any line movement toward -150 makes a Mets +1.5 ticket more palatable.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is enough gray area in Wheeler’s recent slump and Walker’s current one that when added to sloppy bullpen performances of late for both sides, makes for SOLID LEAN ON THE OVER 7.5 (-102).

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Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (35-39) meet the New York Mets (40-32) Sunday at Citi Field for their four-game series finale. Game 4’s first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York took a 2-1 series lead Saturday by rallying with a 2-run bottom of the 9th to beat Philly 4-3 despite a subpar outing from RHP Jacob deGrom (by his standards).

Season series: Mets lead 8-4.

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 16th start for the Phillies. Wheeler is 5-4 with a 2.36 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K Tuesday vs. the Washington Nationals.
  • Wheeler is 1-0 in two starts this season vs. the Mets with a 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.43 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB rate.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 127 at-bats with a .291/.343/.346 slash line, 27/5 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.

RHP Marcus Stroman is on the hill for the Mets. Stroman is 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA (85 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB and 0 K in New York’s 3-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves Tuesday. Stroman exited the game early with hip soreness.
  • Stroman is 2-1 with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 0.77 WHIP and 4.7 K/BB rate in three starts vs. the Phillies this year.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 181 at-bats with a .232/.286/.343 slash line, 38/14 K/BB, 3 HR and 13 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:01 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 1

Money line (ML)

This is just a better spot for the METS (-130), who have a better record than the Phillies vs. right-handed starters and New York is 24-10 at home while Philly is only 14-25 on the road.

Also, the Mets have a significant edge in the pitching matchup because Stroman has been lights out vs. the Phillies this season and he has slightly better pitching peripherals against them than Wheeler vs. the Mets.

Not only that, but New York’s bullpen is top 10 in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB%, home runs allowed per nine innings and left-on-base percentage while Philly’s bullpen is worse in every category and is 27th in WAR with the most blown saves in the majors.

BET the METS (-130) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Mets -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout considering seven of the 12 Phillies-Mets meetings this year have been one-run games.

Furthermore, New York has a losing run line record as a home favorite (10-16 ATS) and Philly has a winning run record as a road dog (17-12 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit since both pitchers have fantastic advanced pitching numbers against their opponent and the Under has cashed in five of the last eight Phillies-Mets games.

Even though the Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball over the past month it’s been mostly on the strength of their pitching.

New York’s lineup is 22nd in wRC+, 25th in wOBA and 23rd in WAR this month.

Plus, Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB and ranks 32nd (out of 33 ballparks) for runs scored in park factors.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (35-38) continue their four-game series with the New York Mets (39-32) Saturday at Citi Field. Game 3’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to start the series with each team winning by a final score of 2-1.

Season series: Mets lead 7-4.

RHP Zach Eflin gets his 15th start for the Phillies. Eflin is 2-6 with a 4.39 ERA (84 IP, 41 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-2, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 6 K at the San Francisco Giants Sunday.
  • Eflin got a no-decision in Philly’s 8-7 loss to New York May 2 and had 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 144 at-bats with a .271/.314/.458 slash line, 36/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 17 RBIs.

RHP Jacob deGrom is the projected starter for the Mets. deGrom is 7-2 with a 0.50 ERA (72 IP, 4 ER), 0.51 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 14.3 K/9 over 12 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday vs. the Atlanta Braves.
  • deGrom earned a no-decision in a start vs. the Phillies earlier this season (April 5) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K in New York’s 5-4 loss.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 241 at-bats with a .203/.272/.290 slash line, 81/24 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Mets -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Mets -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 0

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets (-275) because they have the ace of aces on the mound, and I could listen to an argument for just laying it with New York pending your bankroll situation or parlaying the Mets with another similarly priced favorite for a better payout.

However, I’d prefer to chase the value with New York’s run line then swallow the chalk with the Mets (-275).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-115) for a half unit because New York’s run line is fairly expensive especially with the short total.

But, deGrom’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. active Phillies batters are splendid, and Eflin struggles at Citi Field where he has an 0-3 record with a 6.14 ERA (22 IP, 15 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.1 K/BB rate in four career starts.

And unless Eflin goes the full nine innings, he’ll be turning the game over to a Philadelphia bullpen that has the most blown saves in MLB and the fourth-worst WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (-115) for a half unit since a majority of the situational trends point to a lower scoring affair, and the Mets are known to provide weak run support for deGrom here or there.

Furthermore, the Under play somewhat serves as a hedge if New York’s offense doesn’t step up at the plate, and if Eflin puts together a quality start with the extra motivation of playing a division rival who’s starting the best pitcher of this generation.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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