Tag: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves odds predictions pick betting line spread

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) face the Atlanta Braves (20-23) Wednesday for the 3rd game of their 4-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly won the series opener 7-3 Monday and Atlanta responded with a 6-5 Tuesday to even the series.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Suarez is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 39 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 4-1, at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.77 FIP with a .248/.344/.517 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.3 K% and 93.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 30 plate appearances (PA).

Morton is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across 40 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 5-3, Friday at the Miami Marlins with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 through 24 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.51 FIP with a .267/.318/.423 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 20.1 K% and 87.1 mph EV in 154 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 8, Phillies 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-175) instead of betting 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. Atlanta’s ML opened at -135 but sharp action has steamed it up to the current number, per Pregame.com.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market since more money is on the Braves but more bets have been placed on the Phillies. It’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since sharps wager a lot more money than your average Joe.

Atlanta also has edges in starting and relief pitching and hit better vs. left-handed pitching than Philly does against righties.

Morton’s pitching peripherals are impressive vs. active Phillies hitters and Morton has a 2.19 ERA in his last 5 starts against Philly. Plus Atlanta’s bullpen is 8th in xFIP (3.61) and Philly’s bullpen is 26th (4.24).

The Braves are 8-6 overall vs. left-handed starters and the Phillies are 12-17 against right-handed pitching. Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher in wRC+ (105), wOBA (.322) and hard-hit rate (34.8%) against lefties than the Philly lineup’s 100 wRC+, .313 wOBA and 28.6% hard-hit rate vs. righties.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy lean to Braves -1.5 (+120) because they have a 3-edge over the Phillies in starting and relief pitching and hitting. However, there’s some value in the Over, Atlanta is 6-15 RL as a home favorite and Philly is 10-3 RL as a road underdog.

Over/Under

SPRINKLE on the OVER 8.5 (-130) because Atlanta’s ML is my favorite wager in this game.

However, Atlanta is 14-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and 8-0 O/U in Morton’s last 8 starts as a favorite and Philly is 9-4 O/U as a road underdog.

Truist Park also has the 3rd-highest park factor in the MLB, making it very hitter-friendly, the Over has cashed in 11 of the last 15 Phillies-Braves meetings in Atlanta and the total has been steamed up by sharp action.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (19-22) host the Philadelphia Phillies (19-22) Monday for the beginning of a 4-game NL East series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Both teams are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.

Philly snapped a 4-game losing skid and prevented a sweep in a 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-3 extra-inning victory Sunday.

Atlanta dropped the series finale at the Miami Marlins 4-3 Sunday after winning the first 2 games of the set.

The Braves beat the Phillies 10-9 in last year’s season series and Atlanta outscored Philly by 19 runs in those meetings.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Tucker Davidson

Wheeler is 2-3 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, at home vs. the San Diego Padres Wednesday with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 2-2 with a 1.60 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 across 5 starts.

Davidson is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 5-scoreless IP, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in Atlanta’s 2-1 loss June 9 with 6-scoreless IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Braves +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Braves 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (-135) since they have a 2-phase edge over the Braves in hitting and the starting pitching matchup and Philly’s ML has been steamed up from a -110 opener by sharp line movement (according to Pregame.com).

Wheeler has found his groove after a slow start to the season and dominated the Braves last year. Since losing his first 3 outings, Wheeler has thrown a quality start in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wheeler has a 3.07 FIP with a 28.1 K% in 192 plate appearances vs. current Phillies batters, per Statcast.

The Phillies are also 7-5 vs. lefty starters with a 115 wRC+ (ranked 8th) and .335 wOBA (ranked 4th) against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.

While the Braves are 11-16 vs. righty starts with a 91 wRC+ (ranked 21st) and a .300 wOBA (ranked 21st) against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup has been ice-cold recently, ranking 24th in wRC+ (90), 20th in wOBA (.298) and 24th in WAR over the last two weeks.

BET the PHILLIES (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Phillies are 1-4 RL as road favorites and the Braves have won their only game as a home underdog. Also, 3 of Philly’s last 4 wins over Atlanta have all been by a single run.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120) because the total has been steamed up even though Atlanta’s lineup has struggled lately and Wheeler has been dominant vs. the Braves and is a legit ace. The Phillies are 8-4 O/U as road underdogs and the Braves are 13-5-2 O/U as home favorites and 8-4-1 O/U vs. NL East foes.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-77) and Atlanta Braves (85-72) meet for a 7:20 p.m. ET Thursday night game at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kyle Gibson is the scheduled starting pitcher for the Phillies. Across 30 games (29 starts) this season, he is 10-8 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 177 2/3 IP with the Phillies and Texas Rangers.

  • Allowed 4 ER over 6 IP in his last start and owns a 7.16 ERA over his last five starts.
  • Owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home but has been saddled with a 4.29 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road. Control with a 3.7 BB/9 has been a particular issue in away games.
  • Faces a Braves club which is swung around to its best platoon splits against right-handers with a .761 OPS.

RHP Ian Anderson is the scheduled starter for the Braves. He is 8-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 through 122 1/3 IP over 23 starts.

  • Owns a 2.04 ERA over his last three starts at home.
  • Coming off a seven-inning start at the Arizona Diamondbacks that saw him allow just 1 ER on three base runners.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies scored just 3 combined runs in dropping the first two games of this series. Philadelphia has lost three in a row overall. A division-leading offense that cranked out an .831 OPS from Sept. 15-25 has posted a .390 OPS over the three straight losses.

Atlanta has won five games in a row and nine of its last 10. The Braves have registered 6.0 runs per game on an .802 OPS over that stretch.

For the season, the Phils-Braves series has been an even 9-9 exchange but Atlanta has outscored Philly 84-67. One-run games make for some gray area in looking at both clubs: the Phillies are 30-24 in such games, while the Braves are just 25-30.

With a lean toward Atlanta in a high-scoring game, PASS on the money line and shoot for the Braves getting by on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 27-14 in games decided by 5 or more runs.

BACK ATLANTA -1.5 (+130).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both starting pitchers have favorable BABIP figures, and they have expected-ERA measures significantly higher than their surface ERAs. Both bullpens have had struggles in the season’s final month.

On a warm night with a decent bit of humidity and with two good offenses that have produced at a high level in big chunks of September games, a higher-than-expected score is the strongest play in this one.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-125).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-76), after a series-opening loss, hope to even things up and pull closer to the division lead against the Atlanta Braves (84-72). First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.64 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 174 2/3 IP.

  • Has won his last two starts, although he allowed 6 runs in 6 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates his last time out.
  • Is 1-1 with a 4.44 ERA over 24 1/3 innings across four starts against the Braves this season.

Braves LHP Max Fried (13-7, 3.12 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 158 2/3 IP.

  • Has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start since July 23.
  • Has won six straight decisions; the Braves have won his last four starts and nine of his last 10.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are 9-8 against the Braves this season. They have lost two games in a row but have won nine of their last 13 games.

The Braves, though, are hotter. They have won four games in a row and eight of their last nine, and now lead the Phillies by 3.5 games in the division with five games remaining in the regular season.

Fried is pitching extremely well right now and, while the Braves have lost his two starts this season against Philly, he will shut down their bats tonight.

Take the BRAVES (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Phillies are 74-82 ATS overall and 38-38 ATS on the road.

The Braves are 75-81 ATS but have the league’s worst home ATS record at 25-50 ATS. Atlanta is 9-8 ATS against Philadelphia this season and has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games.

It will be a close game with the division on the line. Take the PHILLIES +1.5 (-175).

Over/Under (O/U)

Eight of the 17 games between the two teams have had totals of 9 or more runs.

The Phillies’ last three games had fewer than 9 runs and so have nine of their last 11 games.

Four of the  Braves’ last 10 games had 9 or more runs and only one of Fried’s last five starts has finished with 9 or more runs.

Take UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (16-17) play the Philadelphia Phillies (18-16) Sunday for the rubber match of their three-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta battled back from a 3-run deficit twice in its 8-7 extra-innings victory Saturday. The Braves were down 3-0 after the second inning but scored two in the bottom of the 9th to send it into extras.

Atlanta then rallied from three runs back entering the bottom of the 12th to win with a walk-off RBI single by RF Ehire Adrianza.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-3.

RHP Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies. He is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K Tuesday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Career vs. Braves: 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 in 21 starts.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 197 at-bats with a .254/.323/.447 slash line and 11 HR.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 4 K at the Washington Nationals Tuesday. Ynoa helped himself out and provided his own run support by hitting a grand slam.
  • Career vs. Phillies: 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.09 WHIP and 4.9 K/9 over 1 start and 3 relief appearances.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 18 at-bats with a .222/.333/.444 slash line.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PHILLIES (-110) for 1 unit because Philly has its ace on the mound against an Atlanta lineup that’ll be easier to navigate if OF Ronald Acuna Jr. misses tonight’s game due to a finger injury.

There’s a bit of noise in Ynoa’s basic pitching stats because Statcast grades Ynoa in the 22nd percentile of exit velocity and in the seventh percentile of hard-hit rate (50.6%).

A big reason for Ynoa’s sub-3.00 ERA is his fortunate .225 BABIP and 87.5% left-on-base rates.

Both bullpens are middle to bottom-10 units and while Atlanta has been a little more productive in the batter’s box this year, Nola has pitched well vs. Braves hitters.

Furthermore, there’s less noise in Nola’s numbers as Statcast grades Nola in the 74th percentile of hard-hit rate, 78th percentile of expected wOBA and 91st percentile in BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Ynoa has good stuff and should give his team a chance to win, Nola just has the edge and more importantly, the Phillies are 6-18 on the run line as road favorites since the start of last season.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a quarter unit since it has slightly reduced vig because all the Under action in the market has steamed this total down from the 8-run opener.

Both starters are strong and winds are blowing from left to right, which doesn’t aid the hitters, and we are getting the worst of the number.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (15-17) host the Philadelphia Phillies (18-15) Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET in Truist Park for Game 2 of their three-game set. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves with MLB picks and predictions.

Philadelphia drilled Atlanta 12-2 last night after chasing Braves starter Charlie Morton when the Phillies lineup went through the entire lineup, scoring six runs in just two outs in the 1st inning.

Season series: Phillies 5-2.

RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starter for the Phillies. Velasquez is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 over 3 starts and 3 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Career vs. the Braves: 1-6 with a 4.83 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.59 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 over 12 starts and 2 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Braves on the current roster: 148 at-bats with a .304/.373/.486 slash line, 43/15 K/BB rate, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.

RHP Ian Anderson gets the nod for the Braves. Anderson is 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA (33 IP, 12 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-2, in 4 IP with 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K at the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.35 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 2 starts.
    • Vs. Phillies on the current roster: 41 at-bats with a .220/.273/.439 slash line, 16/3 K/BB rate, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 7, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

PASS even though Atlanta’s the right side, and where I’m putting my money in the following section because based on recent performance the Braves (-175) for the game and -165 for the First 5 Innings is too pricey.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The story of Philadelphia’s 2020 season was the terribleness of its bullpen, but it has slightly improved. Philadelphia’s bullpen ERA and FIP are bottom-10 and Atlanta’s are top-10, but those stats can be misleading.

For instance, the Phillies’ relievers are top-10 in xFIP and SIERA, which are pitching-only ERA estimators, while the Braves’ relievers are bottom-10 in those metrics.

I say all this to lead into my point that I trust Atlanta could get an early lead given this starting pitching matchup, but I’m not very confident the Braves hold onto a lead.

Also, Atlanta’s lineup is top-6 in wOBA, wRC+, BB/K and ISO vs. right-handed pitching whereas Philadelphia’s lineup is in the bottom-third of the Majors in each of those categories.

BET the BRAVES -0.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+105) alternate total for a quarter unit only since these teams have a combined 2-7 O/U record when these starters are on the mound, and I do not want to lay -120 with the regular total. However, the Over has cashed in four consecutive Phillies-Braves meetings, all in Atlanta.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (4-4) go for a three-game sweep of the visiting Philadelphia Phillies (5-3) on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta took the first two games of the series, winning Friday 8-1 as a -123 favorite and 5-4 Saturday as a -136 fave. Braves 1B Freddie Freeman homered in each game and knocked in the eventual winning run Saturday with a seventh-inning fielder’s choice groundout.

LHP Matt Moore is the Phillies’ projected starting pitcher for the series finale. He failed to get out of the fourth inning in his first start of 2021, yielding 2 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks with 4 strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings of a no-decision vs. the New York Mets Monday. He played in Japan last season after pitching just two games for the Detroit Tigers in 2019.

  • Last season in Japan: 6-3, 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 85 IP across 15 games
  • Career vs. Braves: 1-0, 3.86 ERA (7 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start, a 6-3 win at Atlanta in 2017

LHP Drew Smyly is the Braves’ projected starter. He worked 6 innings and allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits and 1 walk with 8 K’s in a no-decision at the Washington Nationals Tuesday.

  • Last season: 0-1, 3.42 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 10 ER) in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances for the San Francisco Giants
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1 scoreless, hitless inning with 1 K in 2014 with the Tigers

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Braves 5

Money line (ML)

Back the PHILLIES (+135) for a HALF UNIT. It’s hard to picture the Phillies getting swept. They have too much talent. Moore started off OK in his first outing, retiring the first seven batters before losing command. If he does get in trouble vs. Atlanta, look for the Philly offense to come through in the late innings.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Since I’m backing the Phillies ML, I’m not going to bother with looking for a little insurance – where they can lose by at least 1 run – and paying the -135 juice.

ATS records: Phillies 5-3 | Braves 4-4

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 9 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. After opening the season with 3 consecutive Unders, the Phillies have played 5 Overs in a row. The Braves are 4-1 O/U in their last five games.

O/U records: Phillies 5-3 | Braves 4-4

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 8-12 3-3 -2.6375
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 record (all sports) 110-97-1 52-44 +10.4125
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (5-2) and Atlanta Braves (3-4) tangle in the middle contest of their three-game set at Truist Park on Saturday evening. Game 2 is slated for a 7:20 p.m. ET start time.  Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Last season, Eflin went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 in 59 IP over 10 starts and one relief outing. He logged a tremendous start against Atlanta in his April 4 debut; he allowed 1 earned run over 7 innings with 8 strikeouts.

Over his career, Eflin has been a fast starter with a .641 OPS allowed in March/April, but he has been a shaky option in road games with a .832 OPS allowed.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Anderson came up in late August of last year and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 across 32 1/3 IP over six turns in the Atlanta rotation. He opened his 2021 season with a 5-inning start against the Phillies April 4, and allowed 1 earned run with 7 strikeouts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Braves went into this series ready for a bounce toward more production on offense. A club that was nearly 100 points better in OPS at home last season (.797 road OPS vs. .868 home OPS) got that boost Friday when the Braves downed the Phils 8-1.

Atlanta has good numbers against Eflin (.777 OPS, .226 isolated power); look for the home half of their 2021 looks against him to be better.

BACK ATLANTA (-140).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

SKIP THE RUN LINE PLAY, except for perhaps a partial-unit add-on flyer to leverage the above play on the Braves. ATLANTA -1.5 (+140) would fit that purpose; a +145 tag or better would make for solid value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Atlanta at home, upside value in the Braves offense getting off to a slow start not fully supported by analytics and both sides getting a second bite at the apple against starters (and relievers) they saw just a week ago.

It all adds up to the OVER 8 (-115) being a nice play.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (5-1) and Atlanta Braves (2-4) open a three-game set at Truist Park on Friday. The NL East foes will get the series going at 7:20 p.m. ET.  Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Last season, Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 71 IP over 11 starts. He went seven shutout frames against these  Braves in his 2021 debut April 3. In that game, Wheeler fanned 10 while allowing just one base runner (one hit, no walks).

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Last year he went 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 38 IP over nine starts. In his April 3 debut against the Phillies and Wheeler, Morton yielded three runs on eight base runners in 5 IP. The veteran hurler makes this start on five days’ rest, which in recent years has been very much his best interval between turns.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

Phillies pitching and defense has been terrific through the first week of the season. In six contests, Philadelphia has yielded more than three runs in a game just once. Atlanta has won back-to-back games after starting the season 0-4. Friday’s game marks the Braves’ first at home and the Phillies’ first on the road.

Wheeler owns a 1.37 ERA over his last 19 2/3 IP against Atlanta, but overall Braves hitters own a respectable .758 OPS against him. Likewise, Morton was on the short end of the stick in last week’s meeting, but Phillies batters collectively have posted a mere .651 OPS against him.

The Atlanta offense is ready for a bounce toward more production. Figure a slate of home games as providing a boost: the Braves were 100 points better in OPS at home last season (.797 road OPS vs. .898 home OPS).

BACK ATLANTA -135 on just a slight lean on account of price.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are the likable side in a game with a likable Under. SKIP THE RUN LINE PLAY, one that brings in enough juice to nix any value opportunity.

Over/Under (O/U)

An inward breeze is in the forecast. Both teams are coming in on a day of rest, and the rested bullpens and solid starters figure to land this one at 8 runs or below with enough frequency to warrant a solid lean on the UNDER 8 (-115).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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