Tag: PGA Tour betting outright winners

2024 Valero Texas Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 Valero Texas Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The PGA Tour will stay in Texas for the final tournament before the Masters, heading from Houston to San Antonio for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio is hosting this event once again, with Corey Conners looking to win it for the 2nd straight year.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Valero Texas Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy (+1000) is teeing it up this week, which is atypical for him the week before the Masters, as is Ludvig Aberg (+1200). Also among the favorites to win in San Antonio Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa are , all coming in with odds of +2500 or shorter.

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and 7,438 yards. It’s a relatively new course, opening in 2010, and features very little elevation change. If the wind is mild, the scoring should be low this week, with the winning score being between 11-under and 20-under par in each of the last 8 years.

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Valero Texas Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:31 p.m. ET.

Corey Conners (+450)

Conners has won this event twice before and he’s also finished 14th, 26th and 35th in his other 3 starts since 2019. As one of the best ball strikers on tour, he’s a great fit for this course.

Ludvig Aberg (+260)

Aberg missed the cut in his tournament debut here last year, but he’s an even better player now than he was at that time. He hasn’t finished worse than 25th in his last 5 starts.

Valero Texas Open – Top-10 picks

Rory McIlroy (+120)

McIlroy doesn’t have a top 10 yet this season, and if he doesn’t notch one this weekend, it’ll be the 1st time since 2010 that he goes to the Masters without a top-10 on the PGA Tour. In other words, he’s due.

Alex Noren (+300)

Noren is on fire, finishing 9th, 11th and 19th in his last 3 starts. He came in 15th at the Valero Texas Open a year ago so he’s a perfect match of course history and recent form.

Aaron Rai (+400)

Rai continues to be underrated each week despite having 3 top-25 finishes in his last 5 starts – including a 7th-place finish last week in Houston. In 2 starts here, he’s finished 28th and 29th so he’s had some success in the last 2 years.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Erik van Rooyen (+550)

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Valero Texas Open – Top-20 picks

Ryan Moore (+375)

Moore seems to have found something in the last 3 weeks, finishing 45th, 5th and 31st in his last 3 starts. With his ball striking (12th in strokes gained: tee-to-green), he’s a good course fit and could be in contention if the putter cooperates. He’s finished in the top 10 here twice in his last 4 starts.

Matt Kuchar (+400)

Kuchar is not playing well right now, having missed 6 of 8 cuts this season, but he hasn’t finished worse than 12th in this event in the last 4 years, a stretch that includes 3 top-7 finishes. At +400, all he needs is a top-20.

Keith Mitchell (+225)

Mitchell is hitting the ball extremely well, but his driver has gone cold in his last 3 rounds, leading to a final-round collapse at the Valspar Championship and a missed cut in Houston. With his odds dipping, now is a good time to buy the dip at a course that emphasizes tee-to-green play.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Andrew Novak (+350)

Valero Texas Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Corey Conners (-120) vs. Collin Morikawa (-105)

Morikawa is hard to trust right now, having finished 45th and 64th in his last 2 starts this season. He’s also never played this event, while Conners is a yearly participant and a 2-time champion.

Aaron Rai (-110) vs. Beau Hossler (-110)

Hossler has been a cut-maker here, going 5-for-5 in his last 5 starts at the Texas Open, but he’s only finished better than 36th here once in that span. Rai has back-to-back top-30 finishes in this event and is coming off a 7th place finish last week.

Valero Texas Open – Top Korean

Byeong Hun An (+150)

An missed the cut in his last start at the Players Championship, which came as a surprise, but he had finished in the top-21 in each of his previous 3 starts. He also has 2 top-10s in his last 3 starts here. This bet is a way to fade Tom Kim, who’s +225 to be the top Korean in his 1st start since battling an illness that sidelined him for a couple of weeks.

Valero Texas Open – Top South African

Erik van Rooyen (+175)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the favorite at +100, but he shouldn’t have significantly shorter odds than van Rooyen at +175. Garrick Higgo (+360) is the only other contender in this bet, as well.

Valero Texas Open – First-round leader

Matt Kuchar (+9000)

Kuchar always plays well here, as referenced above, and at a course he seems to love, all it takes is 1 great round to cash this bet at +9000. If he gets hot, he could lead after Round 1.

Alex Noren (+4000)

Noren has the 5th-best 1st-round scoring average on tour this season (67.86). He only shot 70 in the opening round last year, but still managed to come in 15th.

Valero Texas Open – To make the cut

McIlroy, Aberg and Matsuyama: Yes (+100)

It’s a chalky made-cut parlay, but all 3 of these players are typically reliable when it comes to playing the weekend.

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2024 Valero Texas Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Valero Texas Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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Players will have one last chance to tune their game before the Masters this week at the 2024 Valero Texas Open, which is once again being held at TPC San Antonio. Corey Conners will look to defend his title after winning the event last year with a score of 15-under par.

Below, we look at the 2024 Valero Texas Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy typically doesn’t play the week before the Masters but he’s in the Texas Open field this year and the betting favorite to win at +1000. Ludvig Aberg (+1200), Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) and Collin Morikawa (+2500) are among the other big names teeing it up this week.

TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and plays at 7,438 yards with very little elevation change throughout the course. It’s not an overly challenging course, with the winning score being between 11-under and 20-under par over the last 8 years. However, if the wind picks up it will have a big impact on scoring.

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Valero Texas Open – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:53 p.m. ET.

Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

Aberg is only in his 1st full season on the PGA Tour, but he’s already one of the best ball strikers in the world and that’s highly advantageous on this course. He ranks 24th in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season and his putting isn’t holding him back too much (57th in SG), so he’s a perfect fit for TPC San Antonio, even after missing the cut here last year.

Corey Conners (+2200)

It’s always hard to expect the defending champion to win in back-to-back years but Conners’ course history and ball-striking prowess make him too good to ignore. He’s won here twice since 2019 (his only 2 PGA wins)  and hasn’t finished worse than 35th in his last 5 starts in this event, using his stellar iron play to propel him to 2 victories.

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Valero Texas Open picks – Contenders

Keith Mitchell (+5500)

After blowing a 54-hole lead at the Valspar Championship 2 weeks ago, Mitchell missed the cut at the Texas Children’s Houston Open over the weekend after finishing 3-over in his last 5 holes to miss it by 1 shot. He’s still among the best players on tour from tee to green, ranking 8th in strokes gained, and he’s finished 17th and 26th in 2 starts here during his career. He’s due for a bounce-back.

Erik van Rooyen (+6600)

van Rooyen has not been good around the greens this season, which is holding him back from contending more, but he’s 48th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 19th total. Before he missed the cut at the Players Championship, he finished 8th, 2nd and 25th in 3 consecutive tournaments.

Valero Texas Open picks – Long shots

Ryan Moore (+10000)

Moore is quietly playing well right now, finishing 31st, 5th and 45th in his last 3 starts. Impressively, he’s 12th in SG: tee-to-green, including 4th in approach, but his putting has been horrific (173rd). TPC San Antonio is more about ball striking than putting, which has helped him finish in the top 10 twice before, so he’s a worthy long shot this week.

Matt Kuchar (+12500)

Kuchar has finished 3rd, 2nd, 12th and 7th in his last 4 starts at this tournament, an event he plays every year. Looking at his stats from this season gives you pause when it comes to betting him because he isn’t playing well (6 missed cuts in 8 starts), but it’s hard to ignore his recent finishes at TPC San Antonio.

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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open and 16 golfers are within 5 strokes of the 5 players tied for the lead. Below, we look at the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Houston. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler shares the lead at 9-under-par 201 at Memorial Park Golf Course (7,412 yards, par 70) with 4 players, including 2 who opened at +30000 to win. Scheffler is the No. 1 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Defending champion Tony Finau, who won at 16-under 264, is just 2 shots off the lead, tied for 9th place at 7-under after shooting 69-62-72. He opened at +2200 to win and is now at +1600.

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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 a.m. ET.

Scottie Scheffler (+140)

The pre-tournament favorite, who opened at +275 to win, shot a 4-under 66 Saturday to go with a 65-70 and starts tied atop the leaderboard at 9-under. The 27-year-old pro will try for his 9th career title and 3rd straight after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship in his last 2 starts.

David Skinns (+1600)

The 42-year-old Englishman, who opened at +30000 to win, shot a 5-under 65 Saturday to go with a 67-69 and is tied for the lead at 9-under. He will try for his 1st PGA title in his 37th tour start. He’ s the No. 331 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

Stephan Jaeger (+650)

The 34-year-old German pro, who opened at +5000 to win, shot his 2nd straight 4-under 66 after an opening 69 and is also tied for the lead heading into Sunday. The No. 33 player in Golfweek’s rankings is seeking his 1st tour victory in his 135th career start.

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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 12:30 p.m. ET (1-2:30 p.m. Golf Channel, 2:30-6 p.m. NBC), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

Thomas Detry (+750): Golfweek’s No. 93 player starts tied for the lead at 9-under after rounds of 70-64-67. He opened at +6600.

Alejandro Tosti (+1400): He is also tied for the lead at 9-under after rounds of 66-67-68. Golfweek’s No. 190 player opened at +30000.

Taylor Moore (+1200): He starts tied for 6th place, 1 shot back at 8-under after rounds of 64-71-67. Golfweek’s No. 62 player opened at +5500.

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Sahith Theegala (+350 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 34th place at 2-under with rounds of 70-70-68.

Will Zalatoris (+200 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 61st at 1-over after rounds of 74-67-70.

Aaron Rai (+200 to make top 20): Starts final round tied for 9th place at 7-under with rounds of 66-70-67. He’s at +2800 to rally Sunday for the win.

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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The PGA Tour is in the Lonestar State this week for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open, which is being played at Memorial Park for the 4th time. The 1st round from Houston begins on Thursday morning.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

In the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is at the top of the poll once again. He’s also the betting favorite at +250 as he seeks his 3rd straight win. Wyndham Clark (+1200) is the 2nd-highest ranked player in the field this week, coming in at No. 8.

Memorial Park is only a par 70 but it’s a long course. It’s 7,435 yards after undergoing a major renovation in 2019, which was the 1st year the Houston Open returned to the course. There are only 3 par-5s, all of which are at least 575 yards, and 3 par-3s ranging from 155 yards to 237 yards. The course record is held by both Scheffler and defending champ Tony Finau, who shot 8-under 62 here in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

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Texas Children’s Houston Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:43 p.m. ET.

Wyndham Clark (+260)

The only guy to beat Clark in his last 2 starts is Scheffler. While it’s tempting to take Clark at +1200 to win outright, a safer option is betting him for a 3rd straight top-5 finish. He doesn’t have a top-5 here yet, but he did finish 16th in 2022.

Sahith Theegala (+350)

Theegala is playing some of the best golf of his career right now, having finished in the top 10 in each of his last 2 starts and 3 of his last 4. He finished 22nd here last year and should be able to improve on that number this weekend.

Texas Children’s Houston Open – Top-10 picks

Will Zalatoris (+200)

Zalatoris had back-to-back top-5 finishes before missing the cut at the Players Championship, showing he’s fully back from his lengthy injury absence. He’s a pure ball-striker, which fits perfectly at this course, and the putter seems to be improving now that he’s using a broomstick method.

Keith Mitchell (+300)

Let’s ignore Mitchell’s final-round collapse at the Valspar Championship and bet him for a top-10 this week. He held a 2-shot lead after 54 holes and shot 77 to fall all the way to 17th, but he should bounce back quickly this week in Houston where he came in 9th last year.

Jason Day (+250)

Day came in 7th in 2021 and 16th last year, hovering around the top 10 each year. Though he’s had underwhelming finishes of 36th and 35th in his last 2 starts this season, he had back-to-back top-10s before that and is playing well early in the season.

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Texas Children’s Houston Open – Top-20 picks

Joel Dahmen (+250)

Dahmen has finished 48th, 11th and 49th in his last 3 starts this season, which is a sign that he’s trending in the right direction after missing 3 of 5 cuts to start the year. Impressively, he’s finished 9th and 5th in this tournament the last 2 years.

Aaron Rai (+200)

Rai ranks 23rd on tour this season in strokes gained: tee-to-green, which is a sign of his solid ball-striking. He needs to get the putter going, but matching his recent form with his course history (7th, 19th) makes him a good bet for a top 20.

Tyson Alexander (+800)

Alexander is a long shot at +800 just for a top-20, but he was the runner-up in this event last year. If he comes in the top 20 again this week, it would be his 2nd top-20 finish this season.

Texas Children’s Houston Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Keith Mitchell (+125) vs. Si Woo Kim (-145)

It’s surprising to see Mitchell such a big underdog to Kim, who has finished 35th and missed the cut in his last 2 starts at this event. Mitchell feels like a great value at +125.

Texas Children’s Houston Open – Top Swedish

Alex Noren (+100)

Alexander Bjork is the next-closest Swede in this wager at +333 and he’s never played in this event before. Noren, meanwhile, came in 4th here last year and has had finishes of 19th and 9th in his last 2 starts this season.

Texas Children’s Houston Open – First-round leader

Alex Noren (+4000)

Back to Noren here. He ranks 3rd on tour in Round 1 scoring average this season (67.7) and was tied for the lead after the 1st round the last time he played this event thanks to a 65 on Thursday.

Scottie Scheffler (top 10, +110)

There aren’t many ways to get Scheffler at plus-money this week outside of betting him outright, but one way is by taking him to be in the top 10 after the 1st round. He ranks 6th on tour in 1st-round scoring so he’s gotten off to good starts in events this season.

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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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With the Florida Swing wrapped up, the PGA Tour heads to Texas for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open. This is the 4th year Memorial Park will host the event, which is headlined by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.

Below, we look at the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Having won his last 2 starts, Scheffler will look to make it 3 wins in a row this week in Houston. He’s the odds-on favorite to win at +275, by far the shortest odds of any player in the field. Wyndham Clark has the 2nd-best odds at +1200, followed by Will Zalatoris (+1800), Sahith Theegala (+2200) and 2023 champion Tony Finau (+2200).

Memorial Park is a par 70 and plays at 7,435 yards, so it’s one of the longer courses on tour. It underwent a major renovation in 2019, which is when the PGA Tour returned to this site, with everything from hole distances changing to bunkers and trees being removed. Scheffler and Finau share the course record of 8-under 62, which Scheffler shot in 2021 and Finau carded in 2022.

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Texas Children’s Houston Open – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:32 p.m. ET.

Will Zalatoris (+1800)

Zalatoris’ missed cut at the Players Championship was surprising, but it shouldn’t be enough to deter bettors from taking him again this week in Houston. He typically plays well when the conditions are tough, as evidenced by his major finishes, and while he’s never played this event before, it’s a good bounce-back opportunity for him at a course that emphasizes ball striking over putting.

Sahith Theegala (+2200)

Theegala finished 61st and 22nd in his 2 starts at this event, but it’s reasonable to think he’ll improve upon both of those finishes this year. He’s in the midst of his best season yet, already posting 4 top-10s and a runner-up in 8 starts with only 1 missed cut. Theegala is just the type of player who can unseat Scheffler at the top.

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Mitchell had the Valspar Championship in his hands before collapsing in the final round with a 77 on Sunday. That dropped him from 1st to 17th on the last day of the tournament after holding a 2-shot 54-hole lead. That ending to his week will leave a bitter taste in his mouth, but it was more of a fluky performance with the driver than anything. He finished 41st here in 2021 and 9th in 2022.

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Texas Children’s Houston Open picks – Contenders

Joel Dahmen (+6600)

After missing the cut in 3 of his 1st 5 starts of the season, Dahmen has gotten back on track by making it in each of his last 3 starts – including an 11th-place finish at the Players Championship. He followed it up with a T-49 at the Valspar last week and now ranks 27th in strokes gained: off the tee and 8th in approach.

Aaron Rai (+5000)

Rai missed the cut at the Valspar Championship by a few shots but he had notched 3 straight top-35 finishes before that. His putter hasn’t cooperated, ranking 136th in strokes gained on the greens but he’s 23rd tee-to-green. This is a course he’s had success at before, finishing 7th and 19th in his last 2 starts here.

Texas Children’s Houston Open picks – Long shots

Alex Smalley (+12500)

Smalley has missed the cut in 7 of his 9 starts this season and one of his made cuts resulted in a 75th-place finish. So why bet him now? Because he finished 4th in this tournament in 2022 and 15th the year prior, so he clearly knows this course well.

Tyson Alexander (+25000)

Peter Malnati showed on Sunday that no matter a player’s odds, anyone can win at any time. Alexander is a mega-long shot at +30000, but he was the runner-up here in 2022 and already has 1 top-20 finish this season.

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2024 Valspar Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win 2024 Valspar Championship at Copperhead Course at Innisbrook in Palm Harbor, Fla.

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Valspar Championship and 16 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2024 Valspar Championship odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Palm Harbor, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Keith Mitchell, who opened at +4000 to win, is at 10-under-par 203 and will take a 2-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Copperhead Course at Innisbrook (7,340 yards, par 71). Mitchell is the No. 102 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Xander Schauffele (+750 before the opening round) is tied for 34th place at 2-under after rounds of 68-72-71. Defending champion Taylor Moore, who won at 10-under 274, is also tied for 34th at 2-under after shooting 69-73-69. He opened at +6000 to win.

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2024 Valspar Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:22 p.m. ET.

Keith Mitchell (+180)

The 32-year-old pro shot a 5-under 66 to go with a 67-70 and will try for his 2nd career title in his 170th start. He won the 2019 Honda Classic.

Seamus Power (+750)

The 37-year-old pro from Ireland, who opened at +12500 to win, shot a 3-under 68 to go with a 68-69 and is 2 shots back at 8-under. The No. 115 player in Golfweek’s rankings will try for his 3rd career title and 1st since the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

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2024 Valspar Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:40 p.m. ET (1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel/ Peacock; 3-6 p.m. ET NBC/Peacock), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

Mackenzie Hughes (+700): Golfweek’s No. 111 player starts tied for 2nd place, 2 shots back at 8-under after rounds of 68-68-69. He opened at +10000.

Peter Malnati (+1200): He starts tied for 2nd place at 8 under after rounds of 66-71-68. Golfweek’s No. 287 player opened at +25000.

Brendon Todd (+1200): He starts tied for 5th place, 3 shots back at 7-under after rounds of 67-69-70. Golfweek’s No. 44 player opened at +6600.

2024 Valspar Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Justin Thomas (+300 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 66th place at 3-over with rounds of 68-69-79.

Cameron Young (+240 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 5th at 7-under after rounds of 69-69-68. He’s at +750 to rally from 3 down to win.

Keith Mitchell (+188 to make top 20): Start thinking about how you’ll spend your winnings — if you bet it.

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2024 Valspar Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 Valspar Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The PGA Tour heads to Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla., for the 2024 Valspar Championship this week, the final event of the Florida swing. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning as players continue to prepare for next month’s Masters.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler remains the highest-ranked player in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, but he’s not in the field for the Valspar Championship. Xander Schauffele, who’s the betting favorite this week at +750, is ranked 2nd, with 2-time champion Sam Burns (+1100) ranked 9th. Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are also among the favorites (both at  +1400) to win at Innisbrook.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a good test for players, even more so than TPC Sawgrass last week. The Snake Pit, which is the final 3 holes, makes this a difficult finishing stretch for the leaders on Sunday. It’s a par 71 and plays at 7,340 yards, featuring tree-lined fairways that emphasize accuracy off the tee and positioning in the fairway.

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Valspar Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:19 p.m. ET.

Justin Thomas (+300)

Thomas missed the cut at the Players Championship last week, which was a huge surprise because he had been playing well previously. In 3 starts here, he’s finished 10th, 3rd and 13th since 2021, so he’s played Innisbrook well, which isn’t shocking considering he typically excels on more difficult courses.

Sam Burns (+260)

Burns won this event in 2021 and 2022 before coming back last year and finishing 6th, a very impressive showing for the 2-time champion. At +260, his odds for a top-5 are short but he hasn’t finished worse than 30th here in the last 5 years.

Valspar Championship – Top-10 picks

Sungjae Im (+240)

Im has gotten back on track in the last 2 weeks by finishing 18th and 31st, so he’s building some momentum. He finished 4th in 2019 and 29th in 2021 so he does have some experience on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook.

Nick Taylor (+300)

Taylor finished 10th here a year ago and is playing some really impressive golf right now, which includes a win at the WM Phoenix Open. Aside from a 3rd-round 76 at the Players Championship, he was right in the mix and still finished 26th.

Cameron Young (+240)

Young always seems to play better on more difficult courses where the scoring is lower, like major championships for instance. Innisbrook fits that mold to an extent, even though he’s never played this event before. It’s hard to feel confident in him winning right now with how poorly he’s been putting, but solid iron play could get him in the top 10; he has 2 such finishes this season.

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Valspar Championship – Top-20 picks

Doug Ghim (+188)

Ghim has notched 5 straight top-20 finishes and will try to make it 6 in a row this week at Innisbrook where he finished 27th a year ago. With the way he’s playing right now (4th in SG: total), he’s a good bet to at least come in the top 20 again.

Keith Mitchell (+188)

Before the Players Championship, Mitchell had finished 9th, 19th and 17th in his previous 3 starts. Back in 2017, he finished 11th at the Valspar and made the cut in 2021 (69th). He ranks 12th in SG: tee-to-green this season which is an indication of great ball-striking, which is required here.

Matt NeSmith (+350)

NeSmith finished 21st in 2021 and followed it up with a 3rd-place finish in 2022, so while he may be a long shot, he has a record of high finishes at this event. A price of +350 for a top-20 is more than reasonable for a guy who’s average finish is 12th at Innisbrook.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Scott Stallings (+650)
  • K.H. Lee (+400)

Valspar Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Cameron Young (-120) vs. Min Woo Lee (-105)

Neither player has experience in this event so it’s an even playing field, but Young is trending in a better direction right now than Lee is. He’s been the better ball-striker this season, too.

Nick Taylor (-120) vs. Eric Cole (-105)

Cole has missed the cut in 2 of his last 3 starts, slowing down a bit after a great rookie season in 2023. He also missed the cut here last year while Taylor is 3-for-5 in made cuts here since 2018, including a 10th-place finish last year.

Valspar Championship – Top English

Aaron Rai (+130)

It’s not the strongest field for Englishmen, with Matt Wallace having the 2nd-best odds at +350, followed by Harry Hall at +650. Rai hasn’t finished worse than 35th in his last 3 starts, including a 19th-place performance at the Mexico Open

Valspar Championship – First-round leader

Nick Taylor (+4500)

Taylor ranks 4th in Round 1 scoring average this season and just finished 10th here last year.

Matt NeSmith (+9000)

NeSmith opened with a 67 here 2 years ago and was only 3 shots off the lead, eventually finishing 10th on Sunday. He ranks 50th in 1st-round scoring average, but was 37th before last week’s Players.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Doug Ghim (+275)

Ghim is going up against Rai (+333), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+333), Maverick McNealy (+425) and Sepp Straka (+450). Bezuidenhout and Rai are playing well right now and McNealy was near the top of the Players leaderboard before going cold on Sunday, but Ghim is as steady as anyone right now.

Will there be a hole in one? Yes (-110)

At -110 with 5 par 3s, albeit, difficult ones, betting for there to be a hole-in-one is a fun wager given the price. Ryan Brehm cashed this ticket with an ace last year.

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2024 Valspar Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Valspar Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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The last leg of the Florida swing, the 2024 Valspar Championship, takes place this week at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla. It’s not a signature event like the last 2 tournaments were, both won by Scottie Scheffler, but it still features a strong field led by Xander Schauffele.

Below, we look at the 2024 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Schauffele is the betting favorite at Innisbrook, coming in with very short odds of +750. Sam Burns, a 2-time champion of this event, is 2nd with odds of +1100, followed by Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas at +1400. Defending champion Taylor Moore is +6000 to win in back-to-back years.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is 7,340 yards (par 71) and has yielded a winning score between 7-under and 17-under each year since 2010. The finish at Innisbrook is far from easy, with the final 3 holes being dubbed the “Snake Pit.” It’s a pair of par 4s (16 and 18), with a 200-plus-yard par 3 (17) in the middle, yielding a scoring average over par each year in that 3-hole stretch.

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Valspar Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:12 p.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+2200)

Im hit a rough patch this season where he didn’t finish better than 44th in 5 straight events, but he seems to have found something in the last 2 weeks. He finished 18th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T-31 at the Players Championship, and he comes to Innisbrook where he’s come in 4th and 29th in 2 career starts.

Nick Taylor (+3300)

Taylor just missed out on a top-25 finish at the Players due to a 3rd-round 76, coming in 26th after shooting 66 and 68 in the 1st 2 rounds. He has 3 top-25s and a win already this season, including a T-12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Taylor finished 10th here last year.

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Valspar Championship picks – Contenders

Doug Ghim (+4500)

It’s been 2 months since Ghim finished outside the top 20. That’s hard to believe, but it’s true. He’s finished between 8th and 16th in each of his last 5 starts and now ranks 4th in total strokes gained this season. At +4500, he’s a bargain.

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Mitchell has only played here twice and he made the cut both times, finishing 11th back in 2017. He’s 7-for-8 in cuts made this season and has finished in the top 25 four times already, ranking 33rd in total strokes gained – a very respectable number for Cashmere Keith.

Valspar Championship picks – Long shots

K.H. Lee (+12500)

Lee finished 21st here in 2021 and 19th last year, which are the only 2 official starts he’s made in this event (WD in 2020). He’s been hot and cold this season, finishing in the top 30 three times and missing the cut in his 4 other starts, but that’s the type of player you want to target as a long shot.

Matt NeSmith (+12500)

NeSmith has only played this event twice but his record is good. He came in 21st in 2021 and 3rd in 2022 before skipping it last year. He may have found his game at the Players, where he finished T-26 on Sunday, so he could head into Innisbrook with some momentum.

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2024 Players Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Players Championship and just 6 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2024 Players Championship odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Xander Schauffele, who opened at +2000 to win, is at 17-under-par 199 and will take a 1-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at TPC Sawgrass (7,257 yards, par 72). Schauffele is the No. 2 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler (+550 to start the week) is tied for 6th place at 12-under after rounds of 67-69-68. Scheffler is the defending champion, winning at 17-under 271 last year. He’s +1100 to rally from 5 strokes back to repeat.

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2024 Players Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:41 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+120)

The 30-year-old pro shot a 7-under 65 to go with a 65-69 and takes a 1-stroke lead in his bid for his 8th career title. Schauffele, who has 17 birdies, 1 eagle and 1 bogey in 3 rounds, has 4 top-10 finishes this season.

Wyndham Clark (+275)

The 30-year-old pro, who opened at +3300 to win, shot a 2-under 70 after a pair of 65s and starts 1 shot back in his bid for his 3rd PGA title and 2nd this season (he won at Pebble Beach). He’ s the No. 9 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

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2024 Players Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:40 p.m. ET, here are 3 other players to watch (1-6 p.m. ET, NBC) as they try to chase down the leader.

Brian Harman (+550): Golfweek’s No. 22 player starts in 3rd place, 2 shots back at 15-under after rounds of 72-65-64. He opened at +6600.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400): He starts tied for 4th place, 4 shots back at 13-under after rounds of 66-69-68. Golfweek’s No. 34 opened at +6000.

Maverick McNealy (+2800): He is also tied for 4th place, 4 shots back at 13-under after rounds of 67-68-68. Golfweek’s No. 113 player opened at +20000.

2024 Players Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Shane Lowry (+650 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 51st place at 3-under with rounds of 71-70-72.

Max Homa (+250 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 68th place at 1-over with rounds of 68-75-74.

Brian Harman (+240 to make top 20): Start figuring how to spend your winnings (if you bet it) as he starts the final round in 3rd place.

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2024 Players Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Players Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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The PGA Tour heads home to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., this week for an event that’s considered the 5th major: The 2024 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The next signature event on the schedule features all of the tour’s top players – including 2023 champion Scottie Scheffler, who’s coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2024 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win again this week, coming in at +550. The next-closest player is Rory McIlroy, who won here in 2019, with odds of +1400. Everyone else in the field is at least +2000 to win the Players this week. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris are among the other top contenders at Sawgrass.

TPC Sawgrass tests every aspect of a player’s game, though it’s very much about precision and accuracy off the tee because there are so many difficult approaches into greens due to the winding layout of the holes. It’s a par 72 and will play at 7,275 yards, with narrow fairways and par 5s that offer great eagle and birdie opportunities. The winning score since has been between -10 and -18, with Scheffler winning at 17-under.

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Players Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Will Zalatoris (+2500)

Zalatoris is all the way back. He’s left little doubt about that in his last 2 starts, finishing 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – both signature events, too. He finished 73rd here last year after finishing 26th and 21st in his previous 2 starts at Sawgrass. With his ball striking, and his improved accuracy off the tee, he’s a legit threat to win this week.

Justin Thomas (+2200)

Simply making the cut year after year at TPC Sawgrass is difficult, but Thomas has made it look easy. He’s never missed the cut in 9 starts at the Players Championship, winning it in 2021. His last 2 starts here have been underwhelming (33rd, 60th), but he finished 11th in 2018 and 13th in 2016. Thomas seems to have fully turned the corner after a poor 2023 season and has gotten off to a great start this season.

Max Homa (+2800)

Homa has only played this event 3 times, all since 2021, but he’s gotten better each year. After missing the cut in 2021, he finished 13th in 2022 and then 6th last year. Even after shooting 1-over on Sunday at Bay Hill, he finished T-8, continuing what’s been a solid start to the year.

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Players Championship picks – Contenders

Russell Henley (+4500)

Henley weathered the tough conditions well at Bay Hill last week, finishing T-4. It was his 2nd top-5 finish this season and he now heads to Sawgrass where he’s finished in the top 25 four times in 11 tries. In the last 2 years, he’s come in 13th and 19th. His accuracy off the tee fits this course extremely well, requiring players to be in proper position in the fairways in order to have clear angles to the greens.

Corey Conners (+5500)

Conners hasn’t had any impressively high finishes yet this season, but he’s also only come in outside the top 33 once all year, with 2 top 25s in 7 starts. In 4 trips to TPC Sawgrass (excluding 2020 when it was canceled), Conners has finished in the top 25 once, which was a solo 7th in 2021. He also tied for 26th in 2022. This is a ball-striker’s course and Conners is one of the best on tour.

Brian Harman (+6600)

Harman was in the lead at a few different moments at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but a 3rd-round 77 doomed him. Still, he finished T-12 and continued his made-cuts streak, playing the weekend in all of his 6 starts this season. He knows how to handle windy conditions and has made the cut 9 of 12 times at TPC Sawgrass, including each of the last 4 years when there’s been increased volatility and unpredictability.

Players Championship picks – Long shots

Adam Hadwin (+9000)

Hadwin already has 3 top 25s and 2 top 10s this season, but he’s also missed 2 cuts. That shouldn’t scare anyone off from betting him at this number, though. He’s finished T-29, T-9 and T-13 in his last 3 starts at TPC Sawgrass, so his course history is good.

Erik van Rooyen (+10000)

van Rooyen is quietly having a very impressive season, posting 6 top-25s in 8 starts thus far, including a T-8 in Mexico and T-2 at the Cognizant Classic. Even in a loaded field last week, he finished T-25, never shooting more than 1-over par in 4 rounds. In his Players Championship debut last year, he finished T-13. At +10000, he’s an enticing long shot to consider.

Matthieu Pavon (+12500)

Pavon has made the cut in all 6 starts this season, winning the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing 3rd at Pebble Beach and T-7 at the Sony Open. A player with the season he’s having should not be +12500 to win at Sawgrass, even if he’s never played the Players before.

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