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The PGA Tour will stay in Texas for the final tournament before the Masters, heading from Houston to San Antonio for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio is hosting this event once again, with Corey Conners looking to win it for the 2nd straight year.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Valero Texas Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rory McIlroy (+1000) is teeing it up this week, which is atypical for him the week before the Masters, as is Ludvig Aberg (+1200). Also among the favorites to win in San Antonio Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa are , all coming in with odds of +2500 or shorter.
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and 7,438 yards. It’s a relatively new course, opening in 2010, and features very little elevation change. If the wind is mild, the scoring should be low this week, with the winning score being between 11-under and 20-under par in each of the last 8 years.
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Valero Texas Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:31 p.m. ET.
Corey Conners (+450)
Conners has won this event twice before and he’s also finished 14th, 26th and 35th in his other 3 starts since 2019. As one of the best ball strikers on tour, he’s a great fit for this course.
Ludvig Aberg (+260)
Aberg missed the cut in his tournament debut here last year, but he’s an even better player now than he was at that time. He hasn’t finished worse than 25th in his last 5 starts.
Valero Texas Open – Top-10 picks
Rory McIlroy (+120)
McIlroy doesn’t have a top 10 yet this season, and if he doesn’t notch one this weekend, it’ll be the 1st time since 2010 that he goes to the Masters without a top-10 on the PGA Tour. In other words, he’s due.
Alex Noren (+300)
Noren is on fire, finishing 9th, 11th and 19th in his last 3 starts. He came in 15th at the Valero Texas Open a year ago so he’s a perfect match of course history and recent form.
Aaron Rai (+400)
Rai continues to be underrated each week despite having 3 top-25 finishes in his last 5 starts – including a 7th-place finish last week in Houston. In 2 starts here, he’s finished 28th and 29th so he’s had some success in the last 2 years.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Erik van Rooyen (+550)
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Valero Texas Open – Top-20 picks
Ryan Moore (+375)
Moore seems to have found something in the last 3 weeks, finishing 45th, 5th and 31st in his last 3 starts. With his ball striking (12th in strokes gained: tee-to-green), he’s a good course fit and could be in contention if the putter cooperates. He’s finished in the top 10 here twice in his last 4 starts.
Matt Kuchar (+400)
Kuchar is not playing well right now, having missed 6 of 8 cuts this season, but he hasn’t finished worse than 12th in this event in the last 4 years, a stretch that includes 3 top-7 finishes. At +400, all he needs is a top-20.
Keith Mitchell (+225)
Mitchell is hitting the ball extremely well, but his driver has gone cold in his last 3 rounds, leading to a final-round collapse at the Valspar Championship and a missed cut in Houston. With his odds dipping, now is a good time to buy the dip at a course that emphasizes tee-to-green play.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Andrew Novak (+350)
Valero Texas Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Corey Conners (-120) vs. Collin Morikawa (-105)
Morikawa is hard to trust right now, having finished 45th and 64th in his last 2 starts this season. He’s also never played this event, while Conners is a yearly participant and a 2-time champion.
Aaron Rai (-110) vs. Beau Hossler (-110)
Hossler has been a cut-maker here, going 5-for-5 in his last 5 starts at the Texas Open, but he’s only finished better than 36th here once in that span. Rai has back-to-back top-30 finishes in this event and is coming off a 7th place finish last week.
Valero Texas Open – Top Korean
Byeong Hun An (+150)
An missed the cut in his last start at the Players Championship, which came as a surprise, but he had finished in the top-21 in each of his previous 3 starts. He also has 2 top-10s in his last 3 starts here. This bet is a way to fade Tom Kim, who’s +225 to be the top Korean in his 1st start since battling an illness that sidelined him for a couple of weeks.
Valero Texas Open – Top South African
Erik van Rooyen (+175)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is the favorite at +100, but he shouldn’t have significantly shorter odds than van Rooyen at +175. Garrick Higgo (+360) is the only other contender in this bet, as well.
Valero Texas Open – First-round leader
Matt Kuchar (+9000)
Kuchar always plays well here, as referenced above, and at a course he seems to love, all it takes is 1 great round to cash this bet at +9000. If he gets hot, he could lead after Round 1.
Alex Noren (+4000)
Noren has the 5th-best 1st-round scoring average on tour this season (67.86). He only shot 70 in the opening round last year, but still managed to come in 15th.
Valero Texas Open – To make the cut
McIlroy, Aberg and Matsuyama: Yes (+100)
It’s a chalky made-cut parlay, but all 3 of these players are typically reliable when it comes to playing the weekend.
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