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Players will have one last chance to tune their game before the Masters this week at the 2024 Valero Texas Open, which is once again being held at TPC San Antonio. Corey Conners will look to defend his title after winning the event last year with a score of 15-under par.
Below, we look at the 2024 Valero Texas Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rory McIlroy typically doesn’t play the week before the Masters but he’s in the Texas Open field this year and the betting favorite to win at +1000. Ludvig Aberg (+1200), Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) and Collin Morikawa (+2500) are among the other big names teeing it up this week.
TPC San Antonio is a par 72 and plays at 7,438 yards with very little elevation change throughout the course. It’s not an overly challenging course, with the winning score being between 11-under and 20-under par over the last 8 years. However, if the wind picks up it will have a big impact on scoring.
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Valero Texas Open – Expert picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:53 p.m. ET.
Ludvig Aberg (+1200)
Aberg is only in his 1st full season on the PGA Tour, but he’s already one of the best ball strikers in the world and that’s highly advantageous on this course. He ranks 24th in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season and his putting isn’t holding him back too much (57th in SG), so he’s a perfect fit for TPC San Antonio, even after missing the cut here last year.
Corey Conners (+2200)
It’s always hard to expect the defending champion to win in back-to-back years but Conners’ course history and ball-striking prowess make him too good to ignore. He’s won here twice since 2019 (his only 2 PGA wins) and hasn’t finished worse than 35th in his last 5 starts in this event, using his stellar iron play to propel him to 2 victories.
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Valero Texas Open picks – Contenders
Keith Mitchell (+5500)
After blowing a 54-hole lead at the Valspar Championship 2 weeks ago, Mitchell missed the cut at the Texas Children’s Houston Open over the weekend after finishing 3-over in his last 5 holes to miss it by 1 shot. He’s still among the best players on tour from tee to green, ranking 8th in strokes gained, and he’s finished 17th and 26th in 2 starts here during his career. He’s due for a bounce-back.
Erik van Rooyen (+6600)
van Rooyen has not been good around the greens this season, which is holding him back from contending more, but he’s 48th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 19th total. Before he missed the cut at the Players Championship, he finished 8th, 2nd and 25th in 3 consecutive tournaments.
Valero Texas Open picks – Long shots
Ryan Moore (+10000)
Moore is quietly playing well right now, finishing 31st, 5th and 45th in his last 3 starts. Impressively, he’s 12th in SG: tee-to-green, including 4th in approach, but his putting has been horrific (173rd). TPC San Antonio is more about ball striking than putting, which has helped him finish in the top 10 twice before, so he’s a worthy long shot this week.
Matt Kuchar (+12500)
Kuchar has finished 3rd, 2nd, 12th and 7th in his last 4 starts at this tournament, an event he plays every year. Looking at his stats from this season gives you pause when it comes to betting him because he isn’t playing well (6 missed cuts in 8 starts), but it’s hard to ignore his recent finishes at TPC San Antonio.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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