Which roster move was the worst decision of the New Orleans Saints offseason? Between their releases, signings, draft picks, and many, many contract restructures (tying underperforming players like Andrus Peat closer to their future), there are plenty to choose from.
The Athletic’s Katherine Terrell chose New Orleans’ worst offseason move in a survey of all 32 teams, though she nearly gave them a mulligan for somewhat extenuating circumstances. She wrote:
“You could say some things were partially out of the Saints’ control after their cap situation got to the point that starting corner Janoris Jenkins had to be released. The Saints loved Jaycee Horn but weren’t going to mortgage their entire future to get him in the draft, and while they could’ve gotten one of the second-tier corners at the end of the first round, they went with Payton Turner. Trading back up in the second to get someone like Tyson Campbell didn’t work, so that position wasn’t addressed until Paulson Adebo in the third round. It feels like the Saints have a gaping hole at CB with few options available and no cap space until someone is extended.”
There’s a very different scenario in a parallel, divergent timeline (or variant, for “Loki” fans) where the salary cap didn’t take an unprecedented tumble and the Saints were able to retain Janoris Jenkins, giving Adebo a year to prepare to replace him or Marshon Lattimore in 2022. But that’s not where we are, and it’s an unenviable position for New Orleans.
Maybe things work out with Adebo competing to start opposite Lattimore, though as Terrell pointed out you’d imagine the Saints still want to add another veteran to the mix with Patrick Robinson and P.J. Williams. Big names like Richard Sherman and Steven Nelson are still available, as are free agents like Dre Kirkpatrick (who visited with the Saints in June).
Paulson Adebo went into the 2020 college football season with plenty of hype behind him: he’s an athletic prototype at 6-foot-1 and 198 pounds with ballhawk skills, but Adebo saw his stock plummet when he opted out amid the COVID-19 pandemic. But he stayed busy — in lieu of playing his final season at Stanford, Adebo flew home to Texas to train fastidiously with a familiar face: defensive backs specialist Clay Mack, a Dallas-based skills trainer who specializes in helping prospects transition to the NFL.
An industry leader who applies a scientific approach to training through functional movement, Mack has worked with multiple first-round draft picks including Jeff Okudah, Jamal Adams, Bryon Jones, and Marshon Lattimore. Past the refining of technique and body control, Mack works to instill perhaps the most important quality in a defensive back — a competitive mentality.
“If my passion is more than yours, we’re going to have a problem,” Mack told me. A former defensive back himself at Mississippi State, he turned to coaching after suffering a career-ending injury: “I’ve always been in leadership type roles. I think that breeds that alpha quality. That’s why I took it so hard once I got hurt, and those dreams kind of dissipated.”
An All-American at wide receiver his junior year of high school, Mack transitioned to cornerback his senior year – where he made All-American with seven interceptions. He also led his basketball team to its first ever state championship at point guard. Sound familiar?
Adebo and Mack are near-kindred spirits: the Saints rookie was a small forward on his varsity basketball team, member of the third fastest relay quartet in the 2017 Texas state championship, and starting wide receiver until his junior year of high school. They happen to be from the same suburb in Midlothian, Texas. Mack has known Adebo since high school.
“I knew his (defensive back) coach, Duane Akina, from when he was at University of Texas,” Mack noted. “That was a natural connection for me. Akina asked me about Adebo back when he was in recruitment, so I was one of the phone calls his coach made in regards to that.”
Mack continued: “I just knew watching him, if you look at his disposition and the whole nine, the way he’s built, he’s a natural defensive back in my opinion. He’s lengthy, has good size. Very explosive and calculated with his movements. When I come across multi-faceted athletes that play multiple sports, they’re typically skill players. But just watching (Adebo), his disposition, his demeanor – it just had defensive back written all over for me.”
His approach to training is two-pronged: fundamentals and mentality. Mack finds with certain players, he needs to infuse a “pro dog mentality” he considers paramount to skillset. Marshon Lattimore didn’t need it. This may come as a shock, but neither did C.J. Gardner-Johnson, another former client and one of Adebo’s new teammates. The aspect of mental toughness is critical to Mack’s evaluation of defensive backs.
“I don’t care how athletic you are, how fundamentally sound or skillful you are, someone’s going to catch a ball,” Mack said. “You’re going to get beat deep, you’re going to get beat for a touchdown and on some critical plays. It’s not about how you get beat, but when you get beat, and how you bounce back from that.”
Mack continued: “The higher the level, the better the quarterback, receivers, offensive line – the execution of schemes from an offensive perspective is going to get better. Guys are going to beat you, it is what it is, right? Are you going to go in the tank? Pout? You have to have selective memory and line up for the next play.”
Aspects of mentality and toughness interplay when it comes to a player’s ability to tackle. “The thing about tackling is it’s a want, not a skill,” Mack told me. “It’s not necessarily a skill, although there are some skill elements on the way you approach and angle tackles. At the end of the day, you need somebody to want to tackle. You have to want to go in and execute that technique to make a tackle.”
Adebo is one of four cornerbacks in this year’s class with a production, athleticism, and overall draft score above 75. The others — Patrick Surtain II, Greg Newsome II, and Eric Stokes — were all first-round picks. pic.twitter.com/VQWuCzUGdo
In confirming Adebo possesses these traits, it made the drop in his draft stock that much more mystifying. In a pre-draft interview, Adebo mentioned how he was trying to answer those questions for things he needed to work on, and thought he had done so through his training with Mack. I asked Mack to detail their work this offseason and what question marks and deficiencies they improved upon.
“We talked about a game plan, in regards to his stock and where it was even a year before, because he contemplated coming out the prior season. We need to find out why your stock dropped or why people failed to warm on you. I don’t like to just be doing things just to be doing them. We had plenty of time because he opted out, so we needed to diagnose those problems, attack and fix it.”
Mack continued: “I talked to his agent and gathered as much information I could. From there, we slowly started to detox some ways and habits, and intoxicate him with some I don’t see or that need to be fixed. We worked a lot on his bend because he’s so long, just being efficient in his movements. We made sure he understood how efficient he should be based on his natural biomechanics.”
“That was pretty much it. To be honest, once you dig into the biomechanics, movement efficiency, understanding the kinetics, just the science behind movement. To talk about it is one thing, but to apply it is a whole different ballgame. We walked through our first session – one thing I always tell my guys is if you want to know how to move, you need to walk your movements first. Your body tends to not let you be unorthodox when you just walk. From there, we jog it, and then we’ll run it.”
Mack analyzes each progression to pinpoint within which stage movements start to look different than walking pace. That’s the stage he starts with. With Adebo, they went from a trot to a jog, ran through to see what it looked like, and went through the film to diagnose. Mack noted where he would lean in and subsequently be off balance; they’d start again at walking pace and correct it until he mastered every step of the process.
Quite literally the old adage, walk before you can run. And Adebo’s up to running speed. The last area they worked on is a bit curious: ball skills. It’s not about the catch abilities of the former wide receiver – it all comes back to functionality and efficiency of movements. Specifically, this improved Adebo’s aggressive pass deflections into interceptions.
“He has the ball skills, but the thing about turning those deflections into interceptions is, what is the proximity?” Mack explained. “How close are you to your guy when the receiver catches the ball? We worked on this in regards to his efficiency coming out of breaks. You can have a good instinctive break, but your breaking pattern in your feet is off. If you break with your left but the right foot came right back down, you basically took two steps in the same spot. That means you’re not moving.”
Mack trained Adebo to eliminate this step and refine his ability to make positive breaks; closing that extra yard can be the difference-maker, and it’s all within a player’s first step. Once the fundamentals were instilled, his natural ball skills and receiver nature took over – highlighting his 10” hands. His analysis of Adebo’s trajectory was quite encouraging for Saints fan hopefuls.
“I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by how he gets in and out of breaks, how he mirrors guys,” Mack said. “I think they’ll be pleasantly surprised. He has great feet, great hips. One of the only things that holds a lot of guys back early on in their careers is understanding the NFL schemes. The fundamentals are there. The sooner [Adebo] learns the scheme, the sooner he’ll be able to display some of those attributes that allowed him to get drafted.”
Deemed sole occupant of “Adebo Island,” Paulson Adebo matches his dog mentality with Cool Hand Luke demeanor. It’s what allowed him to eliminate the periphery noise of the tumultuous 2020 season, and hone in on the necessary work to provide answers to those question marks. Several still remain, but not in terms of promise. Should Adebo quickly learn the schemes – which his Stanford background should reinforce – he possess the potential to become a true lockdown corner with the ball skills of an elite receiver. But for now, he’s got to learn to walk in New Orleans before he can take off and run.
Some analysts and fans on Twitter love to use this topic like a cudgel, but no one is sweating the salary cap hurdles between the New Orleans Saints and signing their draft picks less than the team itself. While the Saints are kind of strapped for cap space right now, it’s only a matter of time until enough resources are freed up to ink their rookie draft class.
Rookie contracts are planned out under the new NFL collective bargaining agreement, so those deals are now tied to draft slots and are easier to project and plan for. The team over at Over The Cap have put together estimates of what each Saints draft pick will count against the 2021 salary cap once they’re signed. I’ll reference those projections often, but keep in mind nothing is official until contracts are signed and the Saints report their cap numbers to the league.
Because only the top 51 contracts are factored against the cap during the offseason, not all of New Orleans’ draftees will even be counted. Remember, whenever a new cap hit is added to the books, it pushes lesser-valued deals below that top-51 threshold. Some of the Saints’ draft picks will carry 2021 cap hits that don’t even meet that bar. After factoring in which cap hits will be displaced, only the Saints’ top four draft picks will rank among the top 51 contracts, at a combined cost of roughly $1.94 million.
Let’s run through the estimates from Over The Cap and consider how each of them factors in to the salary cap:
The New Orleans Saints selected three defensive players back-to-back-to-back in the 2021 NFL draft for the first time since 2009. Despite this deviation to address roster needs, initial scrutiny of the draft class largely focused on the Saints No. 28 overall selection of defensive end Payton Turner.
Since the hiring of Jeff Ireland to overhaul the scouting department, two main factors have shaped New Orleans’ draft approach: selecting the best player available on their board, and drafting on prototype. Measurables include the obvious factors of size, height and speed, but analysis of the team’s draft history reveals a pointed correlation with the Relative Athletic Score (RAS). While the Saints don’t subscribe to RAS specifically, their in-house metrics appear to line up with it very closely.
Every player the Saints drafted in this year’s class besides Notre Dame’s Ian Book had an RAS score of 9.0 or higher (0 to 10 scale). Their first three selections are in the top six RAS scores of all players drafted since 2017; with the exception of Book, all players drafted in this class are in the top nine. Turner scored the highest of all defensive ends drafted since 2017, Werner highest of all linebackers drafted since 2017, and Adebo scored second only to Marshon Lattimore’s 9.99 RAS score.
Source: relativeathleticscore.com
RAS Score Explained:
The Relative Athletic Score (RAS) utilizes ten measurements to calculate a final grade on a 0-10 scale. Those measurements are categorized into composite size, explosion, speed, and agility scores, giving context to the numbers that fly across your screen.
Full explanation of the methodology of the RAS calculations and measurements developed by Kent Platte can be found here. Platte created the metric as a tool to assess player’s athletic abilities relative to the position they play. The 40-yard dash time for a wide receiver, for example, is infinitely more important than that of a defensive lineman.
Measuring a player’s athleticism from a scouting perspective is a two-pronged approach that considers both film and numbers. When the RAS score is viewed on the composite 0-10 scale, it’s overly simplistic. That the Saints tend to emphasize athleticism in prospects isn’t exactly a noteworthy revelation.
One category, however, stuck out in first three prospects: agility. The agility category is a composite of the shuttle and three-cone drill. A deeper analysis over the Saints draft history reveals a strong trend across the relevant positions of defensive end, linebacker, and cornerback: emphasis on the three-cone drill.
Saints Draft Trends: Three-cone drill
This research analyzed all players drafted in the first three rounds at defensive end, linebacker, and cornerback by New Orleans since 2017. As Lattimore is the only cornerback to be drafted in this timeframe, and he did not complete the agility tests, Patrick Robinson and Stanley-Jean Baptiste were included as corners drafted since 2010 in the first two rounds. Cameron Jordan was similarly analyzed for long-term trends.
The RAS system utilizes the terms “Elite, Great, Good, Okay, Poor” to describe each grade. An RAS score in a singular category graded 8.0 or higher is highlighted “green” (Elite/Great), scores of 5.0-7.99 are “yellow” (Good/Okay), and scores of 4.99 or lower are “red” (Poor). I’ve compared them in these charts:
The composite scores are helpful to see what types of exceptions are made at each position, as well as emphasis on certain categories. No player scored “Great” or higher in every single category, including agility. The most universal trend, however, is the three-cone drill within that agility grade. With the exception of Marcus Davenport, all players scored at least 8.0 or higher in the three-cone drill. Zack Baun, the most notable prototypal exception since 2017, recorded a singular green grade: three-cone drill.
Three-Cone Drill
The three-cone drill was developed in the 1980s by the late C.O. Brocato, scout for the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans. Also known as the L-Drill, it covers a distance of 30 yards with six directional changes. Deemed, “football speed” by NFL’s Nate Burleson and Heath Evans, the three-cone drill applies to “every single position on the field, which is why [to us] it’s the most important.”
“The single most important drill at the combine, plain and simple,” an anonymous scout told Dallas Morning News. “Regardless of position, I want to know how the player performs in space and this helps show change of direction, explosiveness and overall athleticism. There is validity to this test translating to the football field.”
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) analyzed combine numbers against 3 Year Career Approximate Value (3YAV) to assess the importance of each measurable in predicting NFL success. They found that the 40-yd dash, weight, and three-cone drill had the highest overall importance across positions. Further research by HSAC assessed the predictive value of each measurable to draft order. Their defensive model found the most accurate predictors for relevant positions as follows:
“Unlike the shuttles, which uses hard stops, the three-cone is about continued momentum and ease of movement,” an NFL scout told The Athletic. “If the only drill we did in Indy was the three-cone, I’m not sure too many would complain. We have plenty of research that confirms its legitimacy.”
On-Field Production
While Harvard’s studies found correlations between the three-cone drill and draft order and 3YAV, I wanted to see whether this translated to quantifiable NFL success. For defensive ends and linebackers, the drill measures ability to shed blockers and get to the quarterback in pass rush. Using Stathead, I researched single season sack leaders drafted in Round 1 from 2010 to 2021.
Findings: 37 players account for the Top 100 single season sack leaders. 19 players had three or more seasons, and 11 had four or more in the Top 100. 9 of these 11 players completed the drill; six scored an 8.00 or higher in the three-cone drill. All 8 players with three seasons completed the three-cone drill, and 7 scored an 8.00 or higher. In total, 13 out of these 17 players scored an 8.00 or higher in the three-cone drill.
Former NFL Scout and SiriusXM host Pat Kirwan developed an assessment in his book, “Take Your Eye Off the Ball”, to evaluate Combine prospects called an explosion number. This score adds a player’s bench press reps, vertical jump in inches, and broad jump in feet. Prospects who score a 70 or higher are known as “explosive players.”
To see how agility factored into this score, I took the top 10 single season sack leaders and computed their explosion numbers: Myles Garrett, J.J. Watt, Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Chandler Jones, Joey Bosa, Cameron Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Robert Quinn.
All players except Garrett completed the three-cone drill. Only Garrett, Watt, Donald and Mack scored a 70 or higher explosion number. In sorting the explosion numbers from highest to lowest, the three-cone drill correlates. Six of these players scored an 8.00 or higher in the three-cone drill; those six players also had the highest explosion numbers, with Garrett as the exception.
Conclusions
Fans were a bit deflated after coveted target Greg Newsome went to the Cleveland Browns two picks prior to No. 28; the Saints’ failure to trade up saw heightened criticism. Newsome scored a 9.66 RAS and had higher explosion and speed grades than Paulson Adebo. Where Adebo edged Newsome out were in size and agility, with Newsome scoring a “yellow” grade three-cone drill. Further, every remaining corner linked to the team failed to record an 8.0 or higher three-cone RAS, including Eric Stokes, Tyson Campbell, Kelvin Joseph, Asante Samuel Jr., Aaron Robinson, and Ifeatu Melifonwu.
Comparatively, Turner’s three-cone drill time of 6.70 seconds ranked in the 99th percentile of historical defensive ends. The emphasis on the three-cone drill when surveying the last five draft classes for the Saints offers some insight into this year’s class; particularly, the selection of Turner in the first round over cornerback prospects. Should this research hold up, it may explain their decision-making not just at No. 28 overall, but throughout the draft.
The New Orleans Saints shared the initial jersey numbers for their 2021 NFL draft class, but which rookies made the best and worst choices?
The New Orleans Saints selected six rookies in the 2021 NFL draft, and the new additions have already chosen their initial jersey numbers. I’ve couched that for a good reason; some of these numbers are likely to change between now and Week 1’s kickoff as veteran players are released or traded, or simply choose to change jersey numbers now that the NFL has relaxed the rules on who can wear which digits (Saints safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, for example, has set his eyes on No. 1). Last year, Zack Baun tried three different numbers during the summer until settling at No. 53.
But which Saints draft picks have made the best choices? After, all everyone knows that the number you wear is the greatest predictor of NFL success. Totally. For sure. Here’s my quick ranking of each rookie’s first choice:
Richard Sherman was just asked about the Saints and how drafting Adebo impacts his thought process during a Twitch stream. Here's his response via @AndrewComeaux99https://t.co/llSfZHyGB1
Richard Sherman was linked to the New Orleans Saints in the early days of free agency, but little came of that buzz. Sherman did recently list the Saints among a group of four teams he had met with — he represents himself in free agency — alongside the two teams he’s played for (the 49ers and Seahawks), plus the Raiders.
Sherman has spoken about the lukewarm interest he’d received from teams in free agency, explaining that he doesn’t anticipate any real offers until after the NFL draft. While the picks are still rolling in, and things could change in a hurry, it appears the Saints’ third-round pick of Stanford corner Paulson Adebo could take New Orleans off Sherman’s radar. While fielding questions from fans during a Twitch streaming event, Sherman mulled the situation with the Saints.
“It’s gotta be a ‘want’ and it’s got to be a respect level with everything,” Sherman said of interest between himself and potential suitors. “So, you know what I mean, Kris being there, they just drafted a corner. They don’t seem to me to be a ‘Y.'”
It’s unclear exactly what Sherman meant by that, but context clues suggest he doesn’t see the Saints as a ‘Yes’ in fitting what he’s looking for. He would be, at best, competing with Adebo to start in New Orleans. Considering Adebo’s talents and the coaching he’ll receive from Kris Richard, who Sherman has seen develop prospects firsthand, there are going to be more appealing destinations for him out there.
And that doesn’t even get into the contract details. If Sherman wants a starting gig and to be paid like a starting cornerback, pulling in $8 million or more per year, the Saints aren’t likely to hit on both points. It makes sense for him to consider other options at this early stage.
Maybe things look differently in a few days. The Saints could very well find the money he wants and offer him a legitimate shot at continuing to start. It’s just a situation where we’ll all have to wait and see.
Here’s something you earnestly love to see: the families of New Orleans Saints draft picks reacting to the news that Pete Werner and Paulson Adebo will be wearing black and gold. For a franchise that once dealt with Reggie Bush pouting his way through his own draft night selection, seeing Werner and Adebo’s families so jubilant is something else.
And it goes to show how far the Saints have come since hiring Sean Payton, who successfully recruited Drew Brees to turn the team around on the fly. And years and years of success have changed New Orleans’ perception around the league radically, to a point now where rookie draft picks have to hurry to another room with Payton on the phone because their families are creating such an uproar. Now how about that?
The New Orleans Saints selected Ohio State LB Pete Werner and traded up for Stanford CB Paulson Adebo on Day 2 of the 2021 NFL draft.
The New Orleans Saints were active on the second day of the 2021 NFL draft, adding an immediate upgrade at linebacker in round two before trading up quickly in round three to go find a potential starter at cornerback. So how do you grade those picks? Here’s my immediate take:
Finally! After days of smoke and speculation, the New Orleans Saints traded with the Denver Broncos in the third round of the 2021 NFL draft, moving up to the No. 76 pick to acquire Stanford cornerback Paulson Adebo. The move cost them both of their third-round compensatory selections at Nos. 98 and 105.
Adebo has some of the best ball skills in the draft class: he’s credited with 34 passes defended, including 8 interceptions, in just 22 games played (starting 21 of them). He’ll provide an immediate talent injection opposite Marshon Lattimore and do so much to lessen the pressure on New Orleans to add more pieces to the depth chart.
Still, he’ll have to earn that starting job. Adebo is in for a training camp battle with Patrick Robinson, P.J. Williams, and any other veteran corners the Saints bring in over the summer. But he has all the tools to succeed right away.
For now, the Saints are not expected to make any more picks on Day 2. But this was the case last year too after they traded up for Zack Baun; they snuck back into the end of the third round by selling all of their Day 3 picks to go get Adam Trautman. Stay frosty.
The Bills filled a good spot in their roster in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft on Thursday. Buffalo opted to stay and No. 30 overall and the team selected defensive end Greg Rousseau.
In Rousseau, the Bills took a player that will be an investment in the long-term future. In Round 2, could Buffalo decide to grab a player that’s more of an instant impact? That’s what happens in the NFL Wire’s recent mock draft.
With the first round in the books, Touchdown Wire put together a mock for the second round which takes place on Friday. In that round, the Bills use the No. 61 overall pick to select Stanford cornerback Paulson Adebo.
Here’s Mark Schofield’s breakdown on Adebo:
The Buffalo Bills enter this draft season without a ton of needs, and they did manage to address a big one in the first round when they added pass rusher Gregory Newsome. Cornerback is another, and they turn to Stanford’s Paulson Adebo, a former four-star recruit with impressive ball skills at the catch point.
Compared to Rousseau, Adebo could be a player that enters the Bills lineup and makes more noise in 2021. Adebo will have to earn it, though.
At 6-foot-1, Adebo has ideal size to play outside cornerback in the NFL. But Bills head coach Sean McDermott won’t just had him a job.
Clearly the Bills’ No. 1 defensive back is Tre’Davious White. Across from him is a training camp battle that’s expected to ensure between Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson. Despite being a seventh-round rookie in 2020 with limited experience, Bills general manager Brandon Beane has insisted this offseason that Jackson will factor into that position.
Despite those two, Buffalo could certainly still opt to use a Day 2 pick on a cornerback. On Adebo specifically, pre-draft scouting reports tout his ability to play in a zone defense, like McDermott’s, and his ball skills. However, he can stand improve against the run and only has limited college experience.
We do have one thing worth noting on TD Wire’s mock. Adebo is the pick because there’s a run on cornerbacks in it in Round 2. In order off the board are: Asante Samuel Jr., Tyson Campbell, Ifeatu Melifonwu, and Kelvin Joseph. A couple of those players could also be in play for Buffalo if the draft falls a bit differently.
