Patriots Dolphins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The New England Patriots (2-5) visit the Miami Dolphins (5-2) Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

New England pulled off a stunner last week, winning 29-25 as an 8.5-point road underdog at the Buffalo Bills. The win snapped a 3-game skid, which included a 21-17 loss at a mediocre Las Vegas Raiders team in Week 6. The Patriots only scored 6 points in the first 2 losses of the slide — 34-0 at home to the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 and 38-3 at the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.

Miami is coming off a 31-17 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles. In what some were calling a Super Bowl LVIII preview, the Dolphins came up short as 3-point dogs. Trailing 24-17 in the 4th quarter, QB Tua Tagovailoa drove Miami to the Philly 24-yard line with 11:33 to go before getting picked off at the 1-yard line. The Eagles followed with a 13-play TD drive to seal it.

The Patriots and Dolphins met in Week 2 with Miami prevailing 24-17 in Foxborough. The Dolphins scored the first 10 points, led 17-3 at the half and held on for the win as a 1-point favorite with the Under (46) cashing.

Miami RB Raheem Mostert finished with 121 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 18 carries, while QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for 249 yards with a TD and a pick. The defense held New England to 88 rushing yards — RB Rhamondre Stevenson was the Patriots lead back (50 yards, 1 TD on 15 carries).

Mostert (ankle) is listed as questionable on Miami’s final injury report but is expected to play, while All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) was activated off IR Saturday and is likely to play as long everything goes well in pregame workouts.

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Patriots at Dolphins odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:08 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Patriots +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Dolphins -460 (bet $460 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +8.5 (-105) | Dolphins -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Patriots at Dolphins key injuries

Patriots

OL Calvin Anderson (illness) out
DL Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
OL Trent Brown (ankle/knee) questionable
DB Jonathan Jones (knee) questionable
OL Vederian Lowe (ankle) out
DL Deatrich Wise Jr. (shoulder) questionable

Dolphins

S Jevon Holland (concussion) out
CB Xavien Howard (groin) questionable
RB Raheem Mostert (ankle) questionable
CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) questionable
CB Cam Smith (foot) questionable

Patriots at Dolphins picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 35, Patriots 20

Moneyline

PASS.

Miami (-460) will win this game, but there’s no value in risking 4.6 times the potential profit. Focus on the spread and the Over/Under options below.

Against the spread

MIAMI -8.5 (-115) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings with a 5-1 straight-up showing. Plus, Tagovailoa is 5-0 in his career against the Patriots and coach Bill Belichick.

For the season, Miami is 5-2 ATS overall and 3-0 ATS at home; New England is 2-5 ATS and 1-2 ATS on the road.

Excluding the upset victory vs. the Bills last week, the Patriots haven’t shown enough to make me believe they finally beat Tagovailoa and end the 0-6 ATS streak vs. the Dolphins

Over/Under

BET OVER 46.5 (-115).

Miami leads the NFL in scoring (34.3 points per game) and offensive yards per game (462.3). So, it’s no surprise the Dolphins lead the league in passing (300.0 YPG) and rushing (162.3 YPG).

New England’s defense ranks 24th in points allowed (25.3 PPG), while it’s middle of the pack in yards allowed — 100.7 rushing YPG (13th) and 210.6 passing YPG (12th).

Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is 27th in points allowed (26.7 PPG) and 20th in yards allowed (345.3).

Points shouldn’t be an issue Sunday.

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Week 1 odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins Sunday. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Patriots enter this season with playoff expectations. They’ll be led by 2021 first-round pick QB Mac Jones, who will be in his 2nd NFL season.

The Patriots added WR DeVante Parker this offseason along with 1st-round pick OL Cole Strange. They also should again have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins had a hectic offseason by trading for Chiefs superstar WR Tyreek Hill. He’s been complimentary of starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, who could be in a make-or-break season as well.

Miami also added starting RB Chase Edmonds, who is one of several talented backs on the Dolphins’ roster. They’ll be led by rookie coach Mike McDaniel, who was the 49ers’ offensive coordinator last season.

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Patriots at Dolphins odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Patriots +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dolphins -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +3.5 (-115) | Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Patriots at Dolphins key injuries

Patriots

WR Jakobi Meyers (knee) questionable
OT Isaiah Wynn (back) questionable

Dolphins

DT Raekwon Davis (knee) questionable

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Patriots at Dolphins picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 21, Patriots 17

Money line

PASS.

Miami is at home with a much-improved offense. I like the Patriots to cover, but I think it will be close enough to where I’d feel more comfortable taking the points.

Against the spread

LEAN PATRIOTS +3.5 (-115).

While the Dolphins have a more talented roster with Edmonds and Hill as their primary weapons, the Patriots should be the more composed and well-coached side.

Bill Belichick is one of the best in the business and will have Jones and company prepared. The loss of CB J.C. Jackson (now with the Lions) and OL Ted Karras (Bengals) could hurt the team some.

Nonetheless, New England added a few new weapons and should make this competitive. The Patriots only lost 5 games last season by more than 3 points.

The Dolphins beat the Patriots in both head-to-head games last season: 17-16 at New England in Week 1 and 33-24 in Miami in Week 18.

In Dolphins’ 9-point victory, they had 2 defensive touchdowns. Take out the small luck factor, and the Patriots would’ve been within 3 in both matchups.

In a divisional matchup, I’d back this being competitive and within a field-goal difference.

Over/Under

UNDER 45.5 (-105) is the BET I LIKE MOST in this battle.

With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, the Dolphins have one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL.

The Patriots were a run-heavy side last season and should look to take the air out of the ball. New England had the 8th-fewest pass attempts last season. With several talented backs, its style should remain unchanged.

For Miami, this will be the 1st game with a new coach, new receiver and new running back all around a quarterback that isn’t necessarily proven to be a top-10 talent.

There could be a learning curve with all the new pieces having not had much time together. I’d back a Belichick-led defense, which will be able to limit Miami’s weapons and keep this game under 46 points.

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The New England Patriots (10-6) head to South Beach Sunday for their Week 18 game with the Miami Dolphins (8-8) at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

New England clinched an AFC playoff berth and can still win the AFC East with a victory and if the New York Jets upset the Buffalo Bills.

The Patriots also have an outside shot at the AFC’s 1-seed but need to win Sunday and for the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Tennesee Titans to lose.

New England snapped a two-game losing skid in Week 17 by waxing the Jacksonville Jaguars 50-10 at home as a 17.5-point favorite. New England is 10-6 ATS and 8-8 O/U.

Miami was eliminated from playoff contention last week after getting blasted by the Titans 34-3 as a 3-point road underdog.

The Dolphins entered Week 17 on a seven-game winning streak after starting 1-7 but their magic ran out. The Dolphins are 8-7-1 ATS and 6-10 O/U.

Miami has won and covered versus New England in three of its past four meetings including on the road earlier this season 17-16 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 18 picks and predictions

Patriots at Dolphins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Patriots -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Dolphins +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots -6.5 (-108) | Dolphins +6.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 39.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)

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Patriots at Dolphins key injuries

Patriots

DB Kyle Dugger (hand) out
LB Dont’a Hightower (knee) out
C David Andrews (shoulder) questionable
DT Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
K Nick Folk (knee) questionable
RB Damien Harris (hamstring) questionable
WR Jakobi Meyers (thigh) questionable
DB Adrian Phillips (knee) questionable
OL Isaiah Wynn (hip) questionable

Dolphins

None.

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Patriots at Dolphins odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Dolphins 23, Patriots 17

Money line

SPRINKLE on the DOLPHINS (+230) because it’s a fat payout and I feel that good about Miami plus the points.

This line suggests that the Dolphins will mail it in Sunday and already be making their offseason plans. However, I reject that notion because Miami could’ve given up on its season after falling to 1-7.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa still has to prove he’s Miami’s franchise QB moving forward and there’s no better way to do that than to beat New England to end the season.

Patriots QB Mac Jones is still a rookie and has struggled in recent weeks. Jones has a 58.2% completion rate with a 5 TD/4 INT ratio and a 76.7 QB Rating in his last four games.

Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a defensive mastermind from the Bill Belichick coaching tree and can install pressure and coverage schemes to confuse Jones.

Again, the plan is to SPRINKLE on the DOLPHINS (+230) and bet more on Miami plus the points.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the DOLPHINS +6.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their money line.

Miami is 7-2 ATS in its past nine home games against New England and the home team is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 Patriots-Dolphins meetings.

The DOLPHINS +6.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this contest.

Over/Under

PASS since my prediction aligns very closely to the projected total so I cannot call it either way.

The Under is too obvious since it’s cashed in four of the past five Patriots-Dolphins meetings. But, it’s hard not going Over a total set below 40 points.

Also see: NFL Week 18 odds and lines

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and prediction

Previewing the New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Week 15 betting odds and lines, with NFL betting picks, tips and predictions.

The New England Patriots (6-7) are back on the road in Week 15 for their third straight game away from home. They’ll visit the Miami Dolphins (8-5), who are fighting for positioning in the AFC playoff race. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Below, we preview the Patriots-Dolphins betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.

Patriots at Dolphins: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Patriots +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Dolphins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Patriots +2.5 (-110) | Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 41.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Patriots at Dolphins: Game notes

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 21-11 in Week 1 but have gone just 5-7 since.
The Dolphins rank second in the NFL in points allowed per game despite ranking just 18th in passing yards allowed and 21st in rushing yards allowed.
The Patriots have the fifth-most rushing yards in the league but rank just 29th in passing.
New England is 2-1 in its last three games against the Dolphins, with an average score of 29.3-12.7.
The total has gone Under in each of the Patriots’ last five games. It has also gone Under in four of the last six meetings between these teams.

Patriots at Dolphins: Key injuries

Patriots

OL Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle) questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (neck) questionable
CB J.C. Jackson (knee) questionable
RB James White (foot) questionable

Dolphins

TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder) questionable
OL Ereck Flowers (ankle) questionable
WR DeVante Parker (hamstring) questionable
S Bobby McClain (ankle) questionable

Patriots at Dolphins: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Dolphins 21, Patriots 14

Money line (?)

The Dolphins come in as the much better team, which is rare considering the Patriots’ incredible success over the last 20 years. Miami has a top-five defense this season and an offense that does enough to win games as a complementary piece.

I like the DOLPHINS (-130) to win outright at home, with Miami being a traditionally difficult place for the Patriots to win.

Against the spread (?)

The spread of 2.5 points isn’t very big at all, especially considering the Dolphins are at home. Miami’s defense will shut down New England’s offense for the better part of this game, and as good as the Patriots’ secondary is, their run defense is porous.

Take the DOLPHINS -2.5 (-110) to cover the 2.5-point margin and win by at least a field goal at home as they continue to fight for a playoff berth.

Over/Under (?)

The total has gone Under in most recent meetings between these two teams, and even with the line being lower at 41.5 points, I still like the UNDER (-115). Both secondaries are great, which will make throwing the ball difficult.

I don’t see either offense doing too much successfully throughout the game, which is why you should take the Under.

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Also see:

Flashback Friday: Patriots squish the fish in 2020 season opener (Patriots Wire)
Multiple paths to Dolphins clinching postseason berth in Week 16 (Dolphins Wire)

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