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The New England Patriots (2-5) visit the Miami Dolphins (5-2) Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
New England pulled off a stunner last week, winning 29-25 as an 8.5-point road underdog at the Buffalo Bills. The win snapped a 3-game skid, which included a 21-17 loss at a mediocre Las Vegas Raiders team in Week 6. The Patriots only scored 6 points in the first 2 losses of the slide — 34-0 at home to the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 and 38-3 at the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.
Miami is coming off a 31-17 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles. In what some were calling a Super Bowl LVIII preview, the Dolphins came up short as 3-point dogs. Trailing 24-17 in the 4th quarter, QB Tua Tagovailoa drove Miami to the Philly 24-yard line with 11:33 to go before getting picked off at the 1-yard line. The Eagles followed with a 13-play TD drive to seal it.
The Patriots and Dolphins met in Week 2 with Miami prevailing 24-17 in Foxborough. The Dolphins scored the first 10 points, led 17-3 at the half and held on for the win as a 1-point favorite with the Under (46) cashing.
Miami RB Raheem Mostert finished with 121 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 18 carries, while QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for 249 yards with a TD and a pick. The defense held New England to 88 rushing yards — RB Rhamondre Stevenson was the Patriots lead back (50 yards, 1 TD on 15 carries).
Mostert (ankle) is listed as questionable on Miami’s final injury report but is expected to play, while All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) was activated off IR Saturday and is likely to play as long everything goes well in pregame workouts.
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Patriots at Dolphins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Dolphins -460 (bet $460 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +8.5 (-105) | Dolphins -8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Patriots at Dolphins key injuries
Patriots
- OL Calvin Anderson (illness) out
- DL Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
- OL Trent Brown (ankle/knee) questionable
- DB Jonathan Jones (knee) questionable
- OL Vederian Lowe (ankle) out
- DL Deatrich Wise Jr. (shoulder) questionable
Dolphins
- S Jevon Holland (concussion) out
- CB Xavien Howard (groin) questionable
- RB Raheem Mostert (ankle) questionable
- CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) questionable
- CB Cam Smith (foot) questionable
Patriots at Dolphins picks and predictions
Prediction
Dolphins 35, Patriots 20
Moneyline
PASS.
Miami (-460) will win this game, but there’s no value in risking 4.6 times the potential profit. Focus on the spread and the Over/Under options below.
Against the spread
MIAMI -8.5 (-115) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings with a 5-1 straight-up showing. Plus, Tagovailoa is 5-0 in his career against the Patriots and coach Bill Belichick.
For the season, Miami is 5-2 ATS overall and 3-0 ATS at home; New England is 2-5 ATS and 1-2 ATS on the road.
Excluding the upset victory vs. the Bills last week, the Patriots haven’t shown enough to make me believe they finally beat Tagovailoa and end the 0-6 ATS streak vs. the Dolphins
Over/Under
BET OVER 46.5 (-115).
Miami leads the NFL in scoring (34.3 points per game) and offensive yards per game (462.3). So, it’s no surprise the Dolphins lead the league in passing (300.0 YPG) and rushing (162.3 YPG).
New England’s defense ranks 24th in points allowed (25.3 PPG), while it’s middle of the pack in yards allowed — 100.7 rushing YPG (13th) and 210.6 passing YPG (12th).
Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is 27th in points allowed (26.7 PPG) and 20th in yards allowed (345.3).
Points shouldn’t be an issue Sunday.
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