The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins Sunday. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Patriots vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Patriots enter this season with playoff expectations. They’ll be led by 2021 first-round pick QB Mac Jones, who will be in his 2nd NFL season.
The Patriots added WR DeVante Parker this offseason along with 1st-round pick OL Cole Strange. They also should again have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The Dolphins had a hectic offseason by trading for Chiefs superstar WR Tyreek Hill. He’s been complimentary of starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, who could be in a make-or-break season as well.
Miami also added starting RB Chase Edmonds, who is one of several talented backs on the Dolphins’ roster. They’ll be led by rookie coach Mike McDaniel, who was the 49ers’ offensive coordinator last season.
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Patriots at Dolphins odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Patriots +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dolphins -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +3.5 (-115) | Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Patriots at Dolphins key injuries
Patriots
- WR Jakobi Meyers (knee) questionable
- OT Isaiah Wynn (back) questionable
Dolphins
- DT Raekwon Davis (knee) questionable
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Patriots at Dolphins picks and predictions
Prediction
Dolphins 21, Patriots 17
Money line
PASS.
Miami is at home with a much-improved offense. I like the Patriots to cover, but I think it will be close enough to where I’d feel more comfortable taking the points.
Against the spread
LEAN PATRIOTS +3.5 (-115).
While the Dolphins have a more talented roster with Edmonds and Hill as their primary weapons, the Patriots should be the more composed and well-coached side.
Bill Belichick is one of the best in the business and will have Jones and company prepared. The loss of CB J.C. Jackson (now with the Lions) and OL Ted Karras (Bengals) could hurt the team some.
Nonetheless, New England added a few new weapons and should make this competitive. The Patriots only lost 5 games last season by more than 3 points.
The Dolphins beat the Patriots in both head-to-head games last season: 17-16 at New England in Week 1 and 33-24 in Miami in Week 18.
In Dolphins’ 9-point victory, they had 2 defensive touchdowns. Take out the small luck factor, and the Patriots would’ve been within 3 in both matchups.
In a divisional matchup, I’d back this being competitive and within a field-goal difference.
Over/Under
UNDER 45.5 (-105) is the BET I LIKE MOST in this battle.
With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, the Dolphins have one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL.
The Patriots were a run-heavy side last season and should look to take the air out of the ball. New England had the 8th-fewest pass attempts last season. With several talented backs, its style should remain unchanged.
For Miami, this will be the 1st game with a new coach, new receiver and new running back all around a quarterback that isn’t necessarily proven to be a top-10 talent.
There could be a learning curve with all the new pieces having not had much time together. I’d back a Belichick-led defense, which will be able to limit Miami’s weapons and keep this game under 46 points.
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More NFL Week 1 coverage
- Experts: ML, ATS and OU predictions
- Best picks: Underdogs | 5 player props | Survivor
- Bet Slippin’ podcast with guest Minty Bets of Yahoo! Sports
- Updated fantasy football rankings (PPR scoring)
- Super Bowl LVII odds
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