Tag: Padres Giants odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The San Diego Padres (75-70) meet the San Francisco Giants (95-51) Thursday at Oracle Park for the finale of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2 but the Padres snapped the Giants’ nine-game win streak by beating them 9-6 Wednesday.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 7-5.

RHP Pierce Johnson is San Diego’s projected opener for what’s most likely a bullpen day. He is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 across one start and 55 relief appearances.

• Last five outings: 0-0 (team record is 1-4) with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in appearances against the Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers (twice) and Houston Astros (twice).
• Johnson has made four relief appearances against the Giants this season with 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K over 4 1/3 IP.
• vs. Padres on the current roster (22 PA): 2.02 FIP with a .200 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .302 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.3 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 30th start for the Giants. He is 14-5 with a 2.65 ERA (170 IP, 50 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this season.

• Last outing: Win, 14-5, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
• Gausman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA (19 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 18 K in three starts against the Padres in 2021.
• vs. Padres on the current roster (136 PA): 2.11 FIP with a .252 BA, .274 wOBA, .395 xSLG, 27.9 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Giants 6, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-200) even though there’s significant “reverse line movement” (RLM) because they have an edge in the three most important phases of baseball (starting and relief pitching and hitting).

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered at the time of writing and more than three-fourths of the bets are on the Giants, according to Pregame.com, but their money line has been brought down from the -235 consensus opener.

Typically, I’d be leery of betting into RLM but, perhaps San Francisco opened as too big of a favorite and the market has beaten this game into the proper pricing.

Also, I’d entertain throwing San Francisco’s money line into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout because this is such a good spot for the Giants.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because Gausman should at least show up on the NL Cy Young ballot this season and San Diego’s bullpen has been terrible lately.

Over the past two weeks, Padres relievers have the worst WAR, sixth-worst xFIP and fourth-worst HR/9. On top of that, the Giants are 41-22 ATS against NL West foes and 30-23 ATS as home favorites while the Padres are just 29-37 ATS in divisional games.

I’d prefer to lay it with GIANTS -1.5 (+110) than bet San Francisco’s money line outright or parlaying it. My hesitation with betting the Giants -1.5 (+110) heavier is we have the same RLM in the ATS market as well.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under whereas the public is backing the Under.

Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. More importantly, San Diego’s lineup has been the most disappointing in the majors since the All-Star break. That’s mostly due to lofty expectations, partially set by the market but also due to the level of talent San Diego sends to the plate.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The San Francisco Giants (95-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-70) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco has steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 7-4.

RHP Joe Musgrove is San Diego’s projected starter. Musgrove is 10-9 with a 2.93 ERA (159 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance.

• Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB and 7 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday.
• Musgrove has lost both starts against San Francisco this season and has an 8.10 ERA (10 IP, 9 ER) with 12 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
• vs. Giants on the current roster (96 PA): 2.97 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .297 wOBA, .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.3 K% and 83.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Dominic Leone takes the ball as an opener for San Francisco’s bullpen day. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.41 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in three starts and 43 relief appearances.

• Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 9-1 win over San Diego Monday with 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 1 K.
• vs. Padres on the current roster (36 PA): 4.43 FIP with a .242 BA, .292 wOBA, .464 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 85.7 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+155) | Giants +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-110) for a tiny wager because I have no choice but to bet baseball’s best team if you’re giving me a coin-flip price.

It’s a bit “square” since we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market (more on that below), but oddsmakers are reacting to the public’s action on San Francisco by making the Giants’ money line more expensive.

Musgrove is less effective on the road; he’s got a 4.25 road FIP (2.82 FIP at home), 16.8% K-BB (24.5% K-BB at home) and a lower home run per nine-inning rate in San Diego.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS as much as I’d love some insurance on our San Francisco money line play because the implied win probability of the Giants +1.5 (-190) is 65.52%, but their cover rate as a home underdog is only 58.8% (10-7 ATS).

Since I only “lean” toward San Francisco outright, I am also unwilling to lay it with Giants -1.5 (+180) on the alternate line.

Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” money is backing San Diego’s money line whereas the public is betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, so laying it with the Giants on the alternate line is too risky of a proposition.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit since both sides of the market are betting the Under hence it being way more expensive than the Over.

San Diego’s lineup has been awful lately and San Francisco’s bullpen has been dialed in. Padres hitters rank dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks, while the Giants’ relievers are 6-1 with the best ERA over that span.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The San Diego Padres (74-69) meet the San Francisco Giants (94-50) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco clobbered San Diego 9-1 in the series opener Monday as the Giants came out the gate with a 5-run bottom of the first inning and finished with 4 home runs in the game.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Giants lead 6-4.

RHP Jake Arrieta is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 5-12 with a 7.04 ERA (94 2/3 IP, 74 ER), 1.73 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 22 starts for the Padres and Chicago Cubs.

• Last outing: No-decision, 6-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 3 against the Houston Astros.
• Arrieta lost at San Francisco, 8-5, June 4 while pitching for the Cubs with a stat line of 2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
• vs. Giants on the current roster (146 PA): 3.23 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Anthony DeSclafani is on the mound for the Giants. He is 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (146 IP, 54 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 27 starts.

• Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 7-4 victory at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
• DeSclafani is 0-1 through three starts with a 3.86 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 6 BB and 10 K this season against San Diego.
• vs. Padres on the current roster (129 PA): 5.01 FIP with a .205 BA, .285 wOBA, .426 xSLG, 20.2 K% and 91.6 mph EV.

Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:05 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Giants -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Giants 8, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

PASS even though the Giants (-190) are clearly the right side because we’d be getting the worst of the number. San Francisco opened as a -154 consensus market favorite before both sides steamed them up to the current price.

There’s heavy one-sided action in San Francisco’s direction and maybe if this were the NFL or NBA I’d be down to fade such a lopsided market but there’s less recreational money in MLB betting markets and fading the Giants this season would’ve destroyed a gambler’s bankroll.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching and hitting matchup and even San Francisco’s bullpen has pitched better than San Diego’s recently.

The Padres’ relief unit has been a strength for them all season but over the past 14 days, San Diego’s bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP, seventh-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the third-worst WAR.

It’s tough to have any confidence in Arrieta against this awesome San Francisco lineup but the Giants could for sure pad whatever lead they have against the Padres’ struggling bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both sides of the market are barrelling into the OVER 8.5 (-130) hence it being the far pricier side and I’d have to agree that the Over is the right side.

San Diego went Over the total in four of its last five games, San Francisco hit the Over in three straight and the Over cashed in six consecutive Padres-Giants meetings.

Also, San Diego will most likely need its bullpen to step up because Arrieta has a 12.17 ERA over his last seven starts and DeSclafani’s effectiveness has regressed since the All-Star Game. DeSclafani’s ERA, WHIP, home run per nine-inning rate and opponent’s OPS has all been much worse in the second half of the year.

BET OVER 8.5 (-130) for 1 unit.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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