The San Diego Padres (75-70) meet the San Francisco Giants (95-51) Thursday at Oracle Park for the finale of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2 but the Padres snapped the Giants’ nine-game win streak by beating them 9-6 Wednesday.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
Season series: Giants lead 7-5.
RHP Pierce Johnson is San Diego’s projected opener for what’s most likely a bullpen day. He is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 across one start and 55 relief appearances.
- Last five outings: 0-0 (team record is 1-4) with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in appearances against the Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers (twice) and Houston Astros (twice).
- Johnson has made four relief appearances against the Giants this season with 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K over 4 1/3 IP.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (22 PA): 2.02 FIP with a .200 batting average (BA), .223 wOBA, .302 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.3 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 30th start for the Giants. He is 14-5 with a 2.65 ERA (170 IP, 50 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Win, 14-5, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K Saturday at the Chicago Cubs.
- Gausman is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA (19 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 18 K in three starts against the Padres in 2021.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (136 PA): 2.11 FIP with a .252 BA, .274 wOBA, .395 xSLG, 27.9 K% and 88.8 mph EV.
Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Giants -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Giants 6, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-200) even though there’s significant “reverse line movement” (RLM) because they have an edge in the three most important phases of baseball (starting and relief pitching and hitting).
Nearly 90% of the cash wagered at the time of writing and more than three-fourths of the bets are on the Giants, according to Pregame.com, but their money line has been brought down from the -235 consensus opener.
Typically, I’d be leery of betting into RLM but, perhaps San Francisco opened as too big of a favorite and the market has beaten this game into the proper pricing.
Also, I’d entertain throwing San Francisco’s money line into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout because this is such a good spot for the Giants.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because Gausman should at least show up on the NL Cy Young ballot this season and San Diego’s bullpen has been terrible lately.
Over the past two weeks, Padres relievers have the worst WAR, sixth-worst xFIP and fourth-worst HR/9. On top of that, the Giants are 41-22 ATS against NL West foes and 30-23 ATS as home favorites while the Padres are just 29-37 ATS in divisional games.
I’d prefer to lay it with GIANTS -1.5 (+110) than bet San Francisco’s money line outright or parlaying it. My hesitation with betting the Giants -1.5 (+110) heavier is we have the same RLM in the ATS market as well.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-130) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money on the Under whereas the public is backing the Under.
Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. More importantly, San Diego’s lineup has been the most disappointing in the majors since the All-Star break. That’s mostly due to lofty expectations, partially set by the market but also due to the level of talent San Diego sends to the plate.
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